Co open 2.5, BTN 3bet 7.5, CO call

Ranges and rake: GTO Wizard 50NL charts

Which flop is the most "explosive" in theory?

1) 6c 3d 2s
2) Js Td 8s
3) Ks Kd Jc

Let's measure "explosive" as the average final size of the pot when it gets raked. Which flop is more likely to "blow up" the pot?

Does your answer change in practice vs theory? Feel free to rank your vote.

I'll upload the solution tomorrow if anyone is interested.

I think 632r results in the largest flop c bet, but I'd think JsTd8s results in the biggest pots because there is more protection jamming

I voted JT8. Only option w/2 to a flush, and plenty of straight draws, sets and 2p from both ranges.

JT8 seems like the obvious choice so I'll be contrarian and go with 632.

of course, there's always the true hidden answer. Taco Bell

KKJ? IP is likely to slow down on straight boards on a lot of runouts, while he is more likely to 3 barrel with insane range advantage

Congrats to newguyhere, 632r is the most explosive flop.

KKJr gives IP such a massive advantage that OOP ends up folding a ton, so the average pot ends up quite small. In fact, this flop produces the smallest pot on average of the entire 74 flop database.

JT8tt seems like a much more dynamic flop, lots of draws. But it actually produces very average pot sizes. This probably changes drastically depending on the starting ranges.

The thing to keep in mind here is that half of OOP's range are just 22-TT pocket pairs, so a low flop like 623r is excellent for that range. 623 is a great equalizing flop, OOP even donks a fair bit.



The IP and OOP EV should always sum to the starting pot without rake. Take the difference to find the rake EV. Now divide that rake EV by 5% and you've got the average raked pot (well, technically the rake caps out at 80 chips, but it's close enough for my purposes).

Here's what the average pot looks like over the entire database when graphed:


Here's one with IP EV, OOP EV, and Rake EV to put things into perspective:



When I analyzed the data, I found that the biggest indicator of flop "explosiveness" was how closely contested the flop was. When the EV's get closer, OOP fights harder, which results in more continues and overall larger pots on average. How dynamic a flop is also plays a big role.

The solves are publically available, provided by user IIlllIlIllIIlIlllI in this post. Big thanks to him for sharing his work.

Yeah I totally didn't keep into account how much OOP needs to fold. Interesting!

Awesome stuff. Looks like you've got more use out of these solves than I have haha. That's why I share these things and I encourage others to do the same.