I think villain has most likely AJ here, what does this look like to you, do you call?



(6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 30.45 BB
BTN: 148.5 BB (VPIP: 87.23, PFR: 6.38, 3Bet Preflop: 13.04, Hands: 47)
SB: 145.15 BB (VPIP: 22.87, PFR: 18.36, 3Bet Preflop: 7.37, Hands: 1,582)
Hero (BB): 207.05 BB
UTG: 105.2 BB (VPIP: 34.30, PFR: 24.50, 3Bet Preflop: 8.50, Hands: 459)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB, CO posts penalty blind 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, CO checks, BTN calls 1 BB, SB raises to 6 BB, Hero raises to 18 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 12 BB

Flop: (38 BB, 2 players) 8 7 J
SB checks, Hero bets 15.2 BB, SB calls 15.2 BB

Turn: (68.4 BB, 2 players) K
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (68.4 BB, 2 players) J
SB bets 25 BB, ??

You are getting 3.7 to 1, but I still doubt your beating 21% of his range here unless you know he bluffs frequently in 3 bet pots. Since it’s BVB he could also be calling your 3 bet lighter but I would fold in this spot. AK got there on turn but that also may be a hand he’s shoving preflop. I do see him having AJ here a lot. KJ maybe. Rarely TT or 99 which are happy to see a showdown. Doubt he’s betting a busted str8 or busted draw because I don’t see him calling a 3 bet with QT, T9, or KT. You are behind most of the times here IMO.

I think you have to call. Not all players think of ranges in micros. Villain might be going for thin value w/ 9s, Ts. AJo, KJo and AK am not even sure are in villains range, but possible. And sure AJs, KJs very possible, but we get good price.

Judging from villains stats he has some idea what hes doing so imo its very unlikely that hes betting a worse value hand on the river. That said it also means he could be bluffing here or even (gasp) turn a pair into a bluff. You also should have some Kx and Jx yourself to call here. So I think queens are just on the edge between call/fold and it's really close

I would call. As mentioned before, the pot odds are pretty good.

Put yourself in his shoes (You have some hands on him and he has decent stats. We might assume he is at least a little bit of a thinking player):
He makes a raise and calls a big 3bet OOP.
On the flop, he is not going to fold anything he did those pre flop actions with against a less than 1/2Pot Cbet.
Your check on the turn, indicates you probably don't have it, or at least you are afraid of the K.
Now, when the J comes on the River, there is also not much a chance you have a J. All his actions looked like he has a J. He decides to continue this route (while he might have absolutely nothing), put you on 99-TT, A7s, A8s or a busted draw (All hands you might defend your BB with by 3Betting in this situation) and try to make it look like he has a monster.
If you reraise, it is an easy fold for him. If you call, he only loses 3.5:1

Call. It is a small investment and you only have to win once every 3.5 times.

Besides: why not (A) bet bigger on the flop and (B) CBet the turn as well?

fair amount of Jx in v's range and a lot of ppl can't resist the urge to bet trips
price is good, can't be a massive mistake to call but idk if it's +ev in the long run with rake, prob closer to a fold imo

could barrel turn a lot, K/Q turns are really good for our range

I think ionutd is right, barreling this Turn is essential. Playing QQ by making a (small) CBet on the Flop and Checking the Turn when it is an overcard, is very exploitable.

That calls 12bbs more pre oop? Not much. I'd fold and be happy about it.