Nothing tells me he is not going to fold, it’s 2 players, stats dont say much but they dont say he is a fish who will call everything. Id want to check on a dry flop because of the showdown value but Id def want to bet bigger on this super wet board while im ahead. Give him a bad call for a chunk of his range, straight or flush draws and jacks + fold equity

we do understand what you WANT to do and what your intentions are. But it is wrong. Time has proven that this way of thinking and approaching the game is not the optimal strategy. we are supposed to think in terms of EV, Equity, Range and balance. Villains range has a big EV advantage = . !

i ran it for the exact stack sizes on a quantum computer, and even wore a labcoat and had some beakers full of bubbly stuff smoking in the background, so , yeah, i think i did it right...

i wonder why i am even talking to you lol

i really did run it for the right sizes, the parameters were correct, unless youre disputing the ranges .. in which case, give the the ranges you think are fair and ill kickstart the generator and run it again *puts on labcoat and safety goggles*

I'm telling you what I would do because I am saying what I think just like you are, I'll stop speaking this way if it triggers you. Why do you think I'm saying he should bet the flop? because betting the flop is more fun? What range do you put him on? What hands in villain's range has an equity advantage otf against AA besides JJ and 9 10 ? Villain's range has a big EV advantage otf if you check the flop but he doesnt if you give him 25-33% RE on his 8 outs or something. Please enlighten us with what you put Villain's range on

look, im not saying, "solver does X case closed" im saying solver does X, heres my hypothesis as to why.


my hypothesis (hence labcoat ) is that its betting because the board doesn't smash his range as hard as one may assume. i then confirmed or refuted this theory by running an experiment in equilab, looking at the frequency of hands we each flop, and posted results. along with the ranges i used

the scientific thought process:
Step 1: Ask a question. For the first step, help your child form a question, hopefully one that can be answered! ...
Step 2: Do background research. ...
Step 3: Construct a hypothesis. ...
Step 4: Test your hypothesis by doing an experiment. ...
Step 5: Analyze the data and draw a conclusion. ...
Step 6: Share your results.

like my science teacher says, "criticism is the backbone of the scientific method"

if you have criticism of my ranges, i welcome it and we can change them and share our findings together!

That is a more mature way to approach that problem. I didnt imply you cant run a sim, but since your results a different from what mine say i was confused… i do know that there is a mix between betting and checking when 100bb deep (at least for the ranges i use) but 200bb deep with that spr i believe we check 98%. I do also remember SB having 45% equity and i think only 30% EV of total pot. SB 3 bet range was 10% (no sc, 99+)

Villain has all sets in his range (88/77) and two pairs (87).
it doesnt matter that we have AA now, when our range is too weak we need to check strong hands too. We are oop on a very dynamic board and most of our nut combos are 1 pair hands. Villain can have sets, 2 pairs, straights, has more straight / flushdraws what matters when we are deep. A lot of turns give Villain 2 pair / straight / trips while we will still have mostly one pair or ace high. That is why we want to play for a small pot and protect our checking range.

He can also have hands like j9, 89, and Jt which have a tremendous amount of equity against our hand.

Actually I just noticed there is alot more to this post I did not read lol my bad you did talk about his range already, I guess I could be thinking this way if I gave him a range as wide as yours but I just dont put 22-77, 87s, 65s and two pairs in there after calling the 3bet. Maybe Im completely wrong right there but I dont see why. these hands sounds like what you would flat 3bb with not 10. There Im assuming he has 50%+ equity on most of his range easily so I also dont see why let him realize his equity for free when fold equity is also there

People call 3b with all, or almost all, of those hands that you mentioned.

oh word which pop?
the range he is giving to villain is 30%. villain s got a vpip of 29. Im putting him on a 3b call of less than 20 percent

I don't think anyone continues less than 20% of the time.

Surely he meant 20% of total hands and not < 20% of hands he opens.

Hand played fine. Fold river.

Guys listen to Zuko if you want to get better at this spot. He just gave you a tonne of information to learn from that is even solver approved.

Think in terms of the equity of our range versus villain's range and not just the exact two cards we hold.