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NL Holdem 0.10(BB)
BTN ($12) [VPIP: 17% | PFR: 14.1% | AGG: 40.3% | Hands: 1271]
SB ($10.29) [VPIP: 9.1% | PFR: 9.1% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 11]
HERO ($11.54) [VPIP: 20.2% | PFR: 16.4% | AGG: 24.1% | Flop Agg: 24.6% | Turn Agg: 23.1% | 3-Bet: 6.6% | 4-Bet: 7.2% | Cold Call: 8.6% | Hands: 36521]
UTG ($19.27) [VPIP: 22.9% | PFR: 18.3% | AGG: 28.7% | Flop Agg: 37.7% | Turn Agg: 25% | 3-Bet: 6.5% | 4-Bet: 6.3% | Hands: 912]
HJ ($12.59) [VPIP: 20.7% | PFR: 14.9% | AGG: 44.4% | Flop Agg: 53.3% | Turn Agg: 50% | 3-Bet: 8.6% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 13.5% | Hands: 91]
CO ($12) [VPIP: 22.9% | PFR: 20.7% | AGG: 45.9% | Hands: 660]

Dealt to Hero: 6 5

UTG Raises To $0.25, HJ Calls $0.25, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.15

Hero SPR on Flop: [14.11 effective]
Flop ($0.80): 4 3 K
HERO Checks, UTG Bets $0.45 (Rem. Stack: $18.57), HJ Calls $0.45 (Rem. Stack: $11.89), HERO Raises To $2 (Rem. Stack: $9.29), UTG Folds, HJ Calls $1.55 (Rem. Stack: $10.34)

Turn ($5.25): 4 3 K 8
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $2.92 (Rem. Stack: $7.42), HERO Folds

Having to fold a flush sucks, but I don't see how he doesn't have better nearly 100% of the time. I'd imagine he's checking sets behind (if he doesn't just jam those otf), as well as his KJo+ with a diamond if he's bad enough to call those pre

Makes me wonder if I should raise more Ax otf if I have to fold a flush ott? This hand has so much equity vs UTG, but has to have much less vs HJ when he flats, and I'd imagine a lot of that equity is vs his folding range

Originally the plan I saw in my head was I'd bet most cards that aren't diamonds, and just hope to x it down on a diamond, but if he's calling that flop bet idk how often that's going to happen

Was flop too big?

You’re making wayyyyy to many assumptions. The fact you know he doesn’t bet worse or ever bluff is a very bold statement. You have 91 hands, you have no idea what he’s doing. You have a flush, I’d either call, or bet the turn myself. Potentially check jamming the turn is too thin so I’d call.

Well, I don't see the point of calling pre and then folding to a 1/2 pot bet OTT when we hit our flush. At the very least we have to call there if we are checking. But I would probably just bet myself AP. Also AP, if we are checkraising OTF, I think that the size was ok, maybe you could bet smaller with a hand with SDV which doesn't need that much FE?

It's 91 hands, not 9. He's pretty clearly a regfish at worst

Bit of hyperbole, I mean to say I think he has it a whole lot

Is that really the extent of your thought process here?

I figured you could infer what I meant. I.e. you’re at the top of your range facing a 60% pot bet. you’re massively over folding if you fold here.

For sure a reg fish can bet sets here or find a few bluffs. Folding without a more solid reason other than I’m scared he has it here to much is illogical. That’s why we have distribution to fall back on, so we don’t have to make massive assumptions which have no basis, keeping us from making big mistakes.

For sure you lose a lot here but you can’t fold the turn.

I’ve solved similar spots check raising from the bb in SRP, not 3 ways so idk how applicable it is but when the flush comes in after cr usually we wanna continue betting for a smaller size with most of our range. So I’d bet a third here with my sets and two pair, flushes and bluffs, probably checking some but flushes and some give ups or something like that. But if think this is 100% bet on the turn.

Well of course it's overfolding, I thought it was obvious I'm not asking what we're supposed to do here in theory

Folding because I think his range is mostly better flushes isn't illogical. It might be incorrect, but it isn't illogical

Do you think most average 10nl reg things aren't going to just jam sets otf acting last otf? Do you think they're going to call the raise w 88 or AQo w a diamond?

I seriously doubt he has sets very often at all, and what bluffs do you think he might have?

The question is, does this deviation potentially yield more EV, not should I be calling this at equilibrium. Of course we should be calling this at equilibrium, you're missing the point. If this hand had been vs an unknown I wouldn't even have posted it

"Falling back on distribution" is fine if you're not interested in maximizing your winrate

.

You’re missing the point, it’s 10nl people do dumb things. Why is he never betting worse or bluffing? You just say he’s not without any reasoning. You need a reason to massively deviate not a feeling lol.

So sassy lol.

Incredible, it's like you didn't actually read anything I wrote

Thank you for your tremendous insight buddy

You’re very welcome.

I reread the hand, I’d probably fold K high flushes on the turn too, he really only has nut flushes in his turn bet range ��

he has no sets or bluffs from preflop action

I'd fold turn as well. If it were same action except utg called the flop raise it would be a tough spot, I think calling or folding turn is pretty similar ev because if he has kk he probably doesnt jam river and probably just checks which makes it super cheap to get to showdown, plus u got ur 1 out.

If you're going to be an ******* to another poster, you should at least be able to give them the basic courtesy of actually ****ing reading what they wrote

There are very few Ax combos left given your hole cards and the board runout, and there's no guarantee he doesn't raise the flop himself with a hand like A2. I think exploitative overfolding is good at micros but I wouldn't do it in this spot without a much larger sample and solid read on villain.

Hey man I wrote a reasonable post and you got all butt hurt, idk what to tell you. But I don’t have anything else to say.

What is your flop flush draw c/r range? Just the NF + straight/flush? Are you just c/c T9dd etc?

It feels like we do probably have close to the bottom of our range here, particularly if we have a wider range of bigger flushes. Problem is that he only needs to infrequently show up with KQo with the Qd to be in good shape here.

if you have a read hes a bit of a reg fish then he could definitely have some sets or Kx suited and does this random merged turn bet planning to xb the river always, I see it so so often from weaker players, they really want you to fold before a fourth diamond rolls off

i think with a spr of 2 ott i just close my eyes and call down clean runouts with my flush

even the fact that you are considering folding this spot is a very good sign imo

I need to get better at folding in these spots. Population just massively underbluffs so we can over fold in a lot of spots where they always have value. nh

Yeah he probably has a flush. Two pair is unlikely (a 21/15 doesn’t play K3 / K4) and he raises the flop with set. Your turn allows him to bluff KQ, KJ, K10 though. I’d probably fold too though.

I'd bet the turn myself, but AP you have to call. His range is NOT just flushes. You can't fold unless another diamond hits the river (that doesn't give you a straight flush obv).

Somewhere you implied that only a regfish would bet a set, which is simply not true.

looks atrocious honestly

I get the logic of folding but I guess I’m confused why you’d X/R is hand with equity if you’re going to fold when you get called and face a turn bet when you make your hand? So what are you X/R and calling with in this spot is a better question?

He could be betting the turn thinking youre scared of the diamond, which is true in this case. If youre him you must be thinking, this guy just check raised and now hes checking back when the diamond hits, he must have a weak king, now is my chance to take it down. That is more likely than him also having a flush. I think you should fold preflop if you are going to fold after making your hand. If that is the case, why are you playing 5-6 in a 3 way pot? He could have any number of hands including sets that didnt raise back and are now betting for value because they dont want to see a 4th diamond, and kings with a 10, J, Q, or A of diamonds. You should be betting the turn and putting up your stack. You've come this far only to make your hand and now give up. If you are going to fold here you need to not play the suited connector at all I should think. It can't be bad to just fold it preflop as you're oop in a 3 way pot.

Bruh, if he's flatting in the HJ he's likely a weaker player. There's no exploitatively overfolding turns w/ flush + straight FD. Villain has myriad combos to probe turn w/. Even against overbet/shove anything we aren't folding. Maybe 300bb deep and he randomly shoves turn but other than that no. Hell have pair+FD, FD Kx random air could be barreling 2nd pair. Further more at micros pool is way over floating flops and turns which weakens his turn probe on average. There's definitely spots we can do DB analysis on pool and make exploitative deviations but folding this is waaaay OOL.