If he would have checkraised flop I would rather be calling this. What do we beat? Is he delay check-raising his flop flush draw ever?
Or do we just call and be fine about loosing against AJ/33/44?
PokerStars - $0.16 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 82.63 BB (VPIP: 6.90, PFR: 3.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)
BB: 403.5 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 11.40, 3Bet Preflop: 4.26, Hands: 120)
UTG: 147.88 BB (VPIP: 21.17, PFR: 16.06, 3Bet Preflop: 9.80, Hands: 141)
MP: 82.19 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
CO: 414.69 BB (VPIP: 24.10, PFR: 18.67, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 170)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A 3

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, SB calls 2 BB, fold

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) J 3 A
SB checks, Hero bets 3 BB, SB calls 3 BB

Turn: (12 BB, 2 players) 4
SB checks, Hero bets 8 BB, SB raises to 22 BB, Hero calls 14 BB

River: (56 BB, 2 players) 9
SB bets 28 BB, Hero ?

You're getting a pretty good price on the river and this is missed draws or worse 2 pairs enough i think.

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Idk what worse twopairs he is flatting from SB? Also I dont think he is flatting sb with 56. I think he has maybe some fds and sets OTT. And I think fds have raised me OTF.. Im also double barreling big on turn and he still decides to raise me. Some how it doesnt look like draw to me.

i think 34s and 56s is easily in a SB flatting range imo

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His river sizing is horrible, can't fold for that price when we block villain's value + everything bricks

Smells a bit like A4 but what can ya do

Results: I called, he showed 44

Is his river sizing that bad tough? For that sizing he is getting calls from strong aces, two pairs. For bigger sizing OTR most aces would be folding.

Check raises like this are most of the times at least 2P. SB is very very tight over a very small sample size but still extremely tight.. I think a FD wouldn’t do this on the turn if you have the FD on the flop already. I would definitely fold river. Should probably fold turn against this player, but really can’t see myself folding in game at this spot on the turn. I don’t see this player flatting 34s or 56s here. I think he would fold this PF. I doubt he has many flush draws since the Ad is on the board. Kdxd is possible but I doubt he’s calling with. Kd and bad kicker PF due to his stats. Qdxd and Jdxd is possible too but i doubt he’s raising the turn with this kind of draw.

I'm not calling. AJ, 44, A4s, show up a lot here, sometimes 33 and 56s, after the turn raise. Diamonds don't make any sense.

Id call

its a small sample of hands but 6% shows he is really tight also this population always has it so you need to overfold in general and the check raise is massive, should be enough to get you to make the tough fold you can easily put him on trips fours or even jacks on the turn. forget that outside of this pop. if you fked up ott the river is a call.

Fold?

OP, results notwithstanding, you should fold. He's tight af and raising ott. You're beaten the overwhelming majority of the time.

It is a small sample but we can infer that he's not going to be flatting many hands in the sb and that he's not a whale.

This just shows you how ****ing completely random villains can play sometimes. First he flats a raise in the sb with 44 and then calls a half-pot cbet with it on an AJ-high flop. And this from somebody who's shaping up to be a nit. Somebody would have to literally put a gun to my head to force me to do either of those actions, and yet here we have a nit just randomly playing and clicking buttons lol

^backdoor straight draw bro
Prob bdfd too

lol he's an 80bb stack, the player type that is most volatile and also love to overvalue their top pairs. the player type that is very capable of flatting J3s/J2s/34s in the SB. not going to give him too much 44 when he floats the flop and we block a bunch of value.

he's only played 29 hands why are you bothering to look at the stats when the shortstack info is a much more valid data point. the randomness of these players makes folding very questionable imo. he's deffo showing up with enough random stuff here to make calling fine. I don't love it but I think calling will show a profit

(would fold to a river size that was any bigger OP)

I won't deny that it's a small sample. However, he's clearly not a whale, he flatted in the sb, and he looks nitty. All signs point to nitty since he didn't 3-bet pre!

You can believe this if you want but turn raises at micros are way more often than not nutty hands than not from the population and given he's appearing as a nit, he has a nutty hand the overwhelming majority of the time.

A good word of advice at the micros: if you can't find a single value hand that you beat, you should snap fold to aggression.

+1
If you fold on the turn you are exploiting them because they dont have enough bluffs in this line

I agree with everything you just said. It's all spot on.

My worry here is that villain may overvalue a top pair (AQ) or have enough worse two pairs (mainly because he does not polarise on the river).

Turn check raises are always value though, that's for damn sure.