Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Micro-Small Stakes PL/NL Discussions regarding micro-small stakes pot and no-limit hold'em (up to and including 1-2)

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-31-2020, 10:41 PM   #1
suwasup
newbie
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Posts: 30
Do perfect stats exist??

Hi, guys, I am not a medium-high stake player, I mainly play NL50 on Pokerstar NJ, However, I think this should be a interesting topic to talk about with medium-high stake players.

I was wondering if the perfect stats exist, by perfect stats, i mean when you try to exploit your opponent, the easiest way is to take a look at his hud stats(assuming you have enough sample), and if he fold too much against check raise, you would check raise him as long as you have a chance. (you can always find a spot to exploit your opponent at micro-low stake, im not sure about medium-high stakes)

Are there hud stats that when yuo take a look, you hardly find a spot to exploit your opponent?

the reason i think this is a interesting topic is that if i know what the perfect stats look like, I can easily find a range to do certain thing in certain situation. for example, if i know the perfect stats for check raise is 10%, i would know which hands are in this 10%(And of course this is based on the premise that this number is coming from enough hands)

please talk about your opinion, and if someone has already talked about it, please let me know.
suwasup is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2020, 02:26 AM   #2
sup3rnova
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: KL
Posts: 76
Re: Do perfect stats exist??

No, poker is not a solved game 9 handed but it is heads up and some would say even 6 max. So there will be a perfect way to play in that nobody wins/lose in the long run, this concept is called Game Theory Optimal (GTO) but obviously nobody can play this way since we are not robots.

What good players do often is learning to understand GTO and then find out deviations from it in other players to exploit them effectively
sup3rnova is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2020, 02:44 AM   #3
jeccross
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 3,811
Re: Do perfect stats exist??

So this is assuming that you have a ton of hands on your opponent and know their stats accurately. In theory yes, if they are playing completely GTO, then you can't exploit them. However, we don't know what that is yet.
jeccross is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2020, 05:38 AM   #4
Zuko
veteran
 
Zuko's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 2,100
Re: Do perfect stats exist??

well optimal stats do exist. it is not really difficult to figure those out. but it wont be as useful as you might think. for example you could run a large flopsubset bb vs btn srp, have IP cb 1/4 pot and then look at the aggregate report and you have the optimal continue frequency for bb across all boards. The problem is that these stats are only optimal with the given preflop ranges and more important they are an average across ALL boards vs that specific sizing. i.e. vs a 1/3 cb bb has to x/r 20% on some boards (even 30% if villain is betting range when he really should not) and on other boards BB should only x/r like 5%. But if IP Cbets larger the x/r frequency increases. at the same time in a spot BB vs EP the x/r frequency overall should be higher (at optimal). you probably need millions of hands on villain to determain his exact x/r frequency for a specific spot. but even if you assume you would exactly now villains frequencies for specific spots... you would still not exactly know how villain constructs his range. how much value, how much air etc...
Zuko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2020, 05:53 AM   #5
jeccross
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 3,811
Re: Do perfect stats exist??

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zuko View Post
well optimal stats do exist. it is not really difficult to figure those out. but it wont be as useful as you might think. for example you could run a large flopsubset bb vs btn srp, have IP cb 1/4 pot and then look at the aggregate report and you have the optimal continue frequency for bb across all boards. The problem is that these stats are only optimal with the given preflop ranges and more important they are an average across ALL boards vs that specific sizing. i.e. vs a 1/3 cb bb has to x/r 20% on some boards (even 30% if villain is betting range when he really should not) and on other boards BB should only x/r like 5%. But if IP Cbets larger the x/r frequency increases. at the same time in a spot BB vs EP the x/r frequency overall should be higher (at optimal). you probably need millions of hands on villain to determain his exact x/r frequency for a specific spot. but even if you assume you would exactly now villains frequencies for specific spots... you would still not exactly know how villain constructs his range. how much value, how much air etc...
That raises a good point. Someone could quite easily appear to have "perfect stats" just by randomising and not even look at their cards. They wouldn't win though (and their WWSF would suck).
jeccross is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2020, 12:32 PM   #6
suwasup
newbie
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Posts: 30
Re: Do perfect stats exist??

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zuko View Post
well optimal stats do exist. it is not really difficult to figure those out. but it wont be as useful as you might think. for example you could run a large flopsubset bb vs btn srp, have IP cb 1/4 pot and then look at the aggregate report and you have the optimal continue frequency for bb across all boards. The problem is that these stats are only optimal with the given preflop ranges and more important they are an average across ALL boards vs that specific sizing. i.e. vs a 1/3 cb bb has to x/r 20% on some boards (even 30% if villain is betting range when he really should not) and on other boards BB should only x/r like 5%. But if IP Cbets larger the x/r frequency increases. at the same time in a spot BB vs EP the x/r frequency overall should be higher (at optimal). you probably need millions of hands on villain to determain his exact x/r frequency for a specific spot. but even if you assume you would exactly now villains frequencies for specific spots... you would still not exactly know how villain constructs his range. how much value, how much air etc...
that is a good point, thank you for your reply.

Can i ask you one more question. let say you have 3k hands of stats of your opponent(or more, whatever), is there percentage of certain action he takes, make you think that you can exploit him? For me, Obviously if my opponent has 90% won at showdown, i will bet on river more often than i usually do because i know he would fold most of the time. are there numbers you looking for? or you just observe what he does and find a conclusion yourself
suwasup is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2020, 12:46 PM   #7
Zuko
veteran
 
Zuko's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 2,100
Re: Do perfect stats exist??

yeah you can look at a few stats and have them work together.
i.e. villain is cbetting flop in position 60% . that does not tell you very much. now you can look how often he folds turn after checking back flop, and you see it is only 35%. after that you can check his delayed cb stat and it shows 50%. now even tho you may have a low sample on every individual stat you got a reasonable picture and you can say that he is definitely checking back some good value. since he is still cbetting very frequently that means he is probably betting a lot of his "air" on the flop. next step would be to see how often he double barrels turn. low turn cbet alone does not say much again, because you dont know if he gives up his bluffs on the turn or starts to check back his value, but when you then look at how often he folds to a river bet after betting flop and checking turn you get an idea of how he is constructing his range. So dont just look at one stat, try to read multiple stats together
Zuko is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:08 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online