Difficult turn spot vs Overbet. 3bet pot 25NL - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.25(BB)
CO ($25) [VPIP: 24.6% | PFR: 19.5% | AGG: 24% | 3-Bet: 10.3% | Hands: 1286]
HERO ($29.56) [VPIP: 27.9% | PFR: 21.6% | AGG: 30.7% | 3-Bet: 10.4% | Hands: 68226]
SB ($25) [VPIP: 26.8% | PFR: 19.8% | AGG: 28.8% | 3-Bet: 8.7% | Hands: 1423]
BB ($26.43) [VPIP: 22.3% | PFR: 15.5% | AGG: 39.9% | 3-Bet: 5.9% | Hands: 593]
UTG ($32.25) [VPIP: 26.6% | PFR: 20.3% | AGG: 27% | 3-Bet: 6.9% | Hands: 5193]
HJ ($56.38) [VPIP: 28.8% | PFR: 20.3% | AGG: 29% | 3-Bet: 9.7% | Hands: 799]

Dealt to Hero: A

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $0.70, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $2.45, SB Folds, BB Folds, HJ Calls $1.75

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.16 effective]
Flop ($5.25): 9

HJ Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($5.25): 9

HJ Bets $7 (Rem. Stack: 46.93), HERO ?

Quote

10-14-2018 , 02:46 AM

ionutd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 13,624

yeah idk those extra straight outs maybe make this a coinflip call
but I wouldn't know what to do when he bets rivers
99 and 88 overbet this way, he shouldn't have 98s,A9s,A8s,A6s but you never know
JTs,KhQh,QhJd,KhJh prob bet this big as well
one more thing that makes me worry about his sizing is that he sets up for a perfect psb river
don't think it's a big mistake to air on the side of caution and fold turn but it's prob a big mistake to call turn call rivers
now about balance and mdf ,don't worry, he doesn't know you're folding an A

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10-14-2018 , 03:10 AM

DooDooPoker

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,585

Do you think shipping turn> then call/call? The gutshot makes me want to call (or shove) and I do think it’s about 50/50 combo wise between sets and combo draws.

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10-14-2018 , 03:31 AM

ionutd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 13,624

now that I think about it, good aces could ob turn as well and if he ever shows up with AK/AQ then shipping is not good. I just don't think he folds hands he likes when you ship turn after checking that flop. but idk, interesting spot.

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10-14-2018 , 12:05 PM

Nothing Ventured

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 237

Quote:

Originally Posted by ionutd

6 combos of sets, 2 combos of 98s, 8 combos AQo plus maybe 4 combos of JTs a QJh as natural bluffs, assuming he doesn't raise the NFD OOP here. Think you peel and fold to river shove

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10-14-2018 , 04:46 PM

ArtyMcFly

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Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 13,256

Call turn with all your Ax or better (with this hand you have the gutshot as well), and then call river with any 2pr+ or even AK if you sometimes check the flop with that. i.e. If this combo doesn't improve you can fold the river, but you should have other combos that will be pretty simple calls on the river.

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10-14-2018 , 04:57 PM

DooDooPoker

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,585

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly

Thanks Arty. What’s your range for Villain here? I can’t decide if he’s more likely to do this with combo draws or sets/2pair. What do you think about a turn shove?

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10-14-2018 , 05:23 PM

ArtyMcFly

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Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 13,256

Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

What’s your range for Villain here? I can’t decide if he’s more likely to do this with combo draws or sets/2pair. What do you think about a turn shove?

I think a strong opponent balances nicely between draws and monsters, which makes it a pretty annoying spot*.
Shoving is not part of my turn strategy, but I'm stationy like that. I like playing rivers. Maybe it is OK to cram it, but it wouldn't even cross my mind in-game.

* Snowie used to use lines like this when I trained with it. I lost track of how often I checked the flop with TPTK and it would bomb turn and river with total garbage (not just missed draws, but hands with 0% equity on the turn, like KQdd in this spot). I learned to never fold top pair in 3-bet pots vs aggrobots.

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10-14-2018 , 08:25 PM

Saysonz1

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 135

I would just fold, it is not a big ev mistake folding but it could potentially be a very big ev mistake shoving or calling. If he's making you fold the best hand this time so be it.

If you notice he starts to overbet in similar spots frequently you can start to change your strategy but in general when I see villains like this overbet it's simply to maximise value

Quote

10-14-2018 , 08:28 PM

#10

MMSS

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Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 4,679

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saysonz1

If you notice he starts to overbet in similar spots frequently you can start to change your strategy but in general when I see villains like this overbet it's simply to maximise value

Do you not know about MMSS theorem*?

Every time a thinking microstakes player overbets the pot before the river he's fos.

* hypothesis**

** nonsense

Quote

10-14-2018 , 08:31 PM

#11

DooDooPoker

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,585

Quote:

Originally Posted by MMSS

Do you not know about MMSS theorem*?

Every time a thinking microstakes player overbets the pot before the river he's fos.

* hypothesis**

** nonsense

What’s your move here MMSS?

Quote

10-14-2018 , 08:35 PM

#12

DooDooPoker

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,585

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saysonz1

Couldn’t I just shove and get the information for sure? Especially since Villain is a reg and I’ll probably play close to at least 10k hands with him.

Also wouldn’t you rather have my hand over a hand like AK since I at least have equity vs sets? What’s the worst hand you call with here.

Quote

10-14-2018 , 08:46 PM

#13

MMSS

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Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 4,679

Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

What’s your move here MMSS?

I don't 3bet A5s here.

You don't really have strong aces on the turn, probably don't have sets bar AA. Villains range just seems a lot better than yours and I'll click fold because I'd be completely lost on the river.

That being said look at your range in this spot and find out where this hand is and whether you need to be calling based on MDF and play around with different ranges for villain to see if it's ever good and how different rivers affect this spot and then fold anyway.

Quote

10-14-2018 , 08:48 PM

#14

Saysonz1

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 135

Quote:

Originally Posted by MMSS

Do you not know about MMSS theorem*?

Every time a thinking microstakes player overbets the pot before the river he's fos.

* hypothesis**

** nonsense

I assume your one of those guys calling with mid pair when I overbet and shove my 2pair+

Worst hand I call here is two pair or a combo draw

Gutshot OTT does add equity but not a lot..

Quote

10-14-2018 , 08:51 PM

#15

Saysonz1

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 135

Villains pretty much always shoving river here and if we're folding unless we hit two pair or straight its definitely horrendous

Quote

10-14-2018 , 08:51 PM

#16

MMSS

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 4,679

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saysonz1

I assume your one of those guys calling with mid pair when I overbet and shove my 2pair+

Worst hand I call here is two pair or a combo draw

Gutshot OTT does add equity but not a lot..

Nah I'm one of those weird people that folds to big bets. Bet small on the other hand and I'll call you with all sorts of garbage.

Quote

10-14-2018 , 09:10 PM

#17

DooDooPoker

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,585

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saysonz1

Villains pretty much always shoving river here and if we're folding unless we hit two pair or straight its definitely horrendous

So you fold AK on the turn?

Quote

10-14-2018 , 09:15 PM

#18

Saysonz1

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 135

Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

So you fold AK on the turn?

I call AK - I think AQ AJ A10 and A7 are all possible hands that bet like this as well as hands like A6 and 98 etc which you can counterfeit

Definitely think a5 is way lower equity vs his total range even with gutshot equity

Quote

10-15-2018 , 03:18 AM

#19

ChipsNcrisps

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 4,946

Quote:

Every time a thinking microstakes player overbets the pot before the river he's fos.

are u one of these guys who call down with middle pair vs 2x. ob and goes mental in chat when he shows u tpbk hahahah

Quote

10-15-2018 , 03:31 AM

#20

.isolated

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Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 21,495

Quote:

Originally Posted by MMSS

Do you not know about MMSS theorem*?

Every time a thinking microstakes player overbets the pot before the river he's fos.

When a thinking player overbets the pot, he should have more bluffs than value. More bluffs than value doesn't equal every time. I'm sure myself, Chips, Doodoo and quite a few other regs here can pull up overbetting a bunch of value otf and ott.

Quote

10-15-2018 , 03:37 AM

#21

MMSS

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Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 4,679

Thanks to everyone for pointing out that my jokey post is factually incorrect.

Quote:

Originally Posted by .isolated

Why should you have more bluffs than value bets when overbetting? As an exploitative measure in some spots, sure but in general I'm pretty sure the more we bet the closer to equal value to bluffs becomes.

Last edited by MMSS; 10-15-2018 at 03:43 AM.

Quote

10-15-2018 , 03:43 AM

#22

ChipsNcrisps

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Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 4,946

Quote:

Originally Posted by MMSS

Thanks to everyone for pointing out that my jokey post is factually incorrect.

Quote

10-15-2018 , 06:13 AM

#23

Ojune

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Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 5,171

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saysonz1

Villains pretty much always shoving river here and if we're folding unless we hit two pair or straight its definitely horrendous

What's horrendous to me is underfolding river after overfolding turn. A juicy leak indeed.

Quote

10-15-2018 , 09:46 AM

#24

Ojune

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 5,171

Quote:

Originally Posted by MMSS

Why should you have more bluffs than value bets when overbetting?

because you're laying villain bad odds and he has 1 more street to potentially bluffcatch.

Quote

10-15-2018 , 02:07 PM

#25

DooDooPoker

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,585

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ojune

because you're laying villain bad odds and he has 1 more street to potentially bluffcatch.

Ojune what's your play here? This is a weird range spot where Villain has more sets then me so I might actually be at a disadvantage.

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