Vil is 35/21

Really unclear what the SB flatting range is here

[converted_hand][hand_history]WPN, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $16.48 (164.8 bb)
BB: $10.92 (109.2 bb)
MP: $10.37 (103.7 bb)
Hero (CO): $13.58 (135.8 bb)
BTN: $10.16 (101.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A 2
MP folds, Hero raises to $0.35, BTN folds, SB calls $0.30, BB folds

Flop: ($0.80) 2 8 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.80) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $0.38, Hero calls $0.38

River: ($1.56) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $0.37, Hero ?

You're beat a lot here. draw with a 9 makes sense, pocket TT, a hand like 87s or even pckt 66 since his sizing is so small.

I think we should cbet the flop because we have equity, position, and showdown value. As played we can probably call. He should have enough semi-bluffs and Ax's to make it profitable.

I like a call here. You're probably beat, but occasionally you'll see this line as a bluff and be surprised. Even if he never does this as a bluff it will encourage him to make a smaller sizing like this in the future where he could have gone bigger for value.

I definitely would not raise without reads. Opponent could be trying to induce a bluff. He did go 1 cent less which could be a mind game with 9x.

After calling and seeing his hand you'll be able to better gauge how your opponent thinks for future hands.

a safe way to assume sb's range is hands that are not good enough to raise for value, so weaker broadways, mid and maybe low pairs, some suited aces, some suited connectors, maybe suited gappers.

if you cb, you get rid of his crap broadways. if you think about combos, these are a big part of his range, prob more than 50%. if you add up the rest of the air that folds, a cb is instantly very profitable.

bet fold, we benefit greatly when he folds QT otf.

I think SB has a lot of pocket pairs when he calls pre, but also some so-so high cards that he is reluctant to 3-bet (KJo, QTs, JTs, A9s etc).
I think I would usually bet the flop, and then check back most turns if he calls and I don't improve. The line as played isn't terrible either, as you get to the river in the same-sized pot, and villain has more air in his range with the flop check-back line. It's just you're more in a guessing game, as villain never had an opportunity to fold his air, and no read is given on how "bluffy" this guy might be.
I would call at that price, expecting to lose pretty often (some villains will show up with 87s or even 66), but picking off some bluffs with random overcards (e.g. JTs) just about often enough to break even.

If we are contemplating a call on the river in the hand as played, that means we believe our hand has some showdown value.

If we believe our hand has some, but not much, showdown value, we should not bet the flop, as that puts us in the situation of having the villain fold worse and call with better.

River MDF is 80%. We are going to have a bunch of whiffed heart draws in our check-flop-call-turn range, so bottom pair is very likely to be in the top 80% of our range. Call.

Our hand is extremely vulnerable on the flop and has more potential to improve than a hand like 66 so I believe betting is good. River is indeed a call for the reasons you mentioned.

I guess I need to be calling more in this spot

How do you calculate MDF? 37 divided by 230? Wouldn’t MDF be closer to 16% or am I doing this wrong

I have a feeling that Alan did $.37/($.37+$1.56) which is slightly wrong because the bettors not winning any money when he wins via fold. I only think that because that comes out to defending ~80%.

The calculation should be $.37/$1.56 which means we need to defend 76.3%.

We're looking from bettors pov. We need to take the answer of 37/156 (.237) and subtract that from 1. 1-.237=.763 which makes us want to defend 76.3% so villain doesn't auto profit.

You're looking at what the pot odds tell us to call.

Thanks Iso, oh so that’s pretty straight forward. Do you think we are in the top 76% of our range?

If I had to guess, I'd say it's a close no. Most of our draws are betting flop. We do have some heart draws that could xb flop that'll have to fold river but a bunch of those are bet otf. We'll have to fold some club draws that didn't bet otf. We could also have some 9x/8x/4x/33/55/77 in our range to call with. It really depends how you make up your range otf. The way I make up my range would certainly make this a fold.

Alan is right, you include the original bet in the final pot size calculation for MDF.

If it was to be a pot sized bet with your calculation it would be 0% call which doesn't make sense.

That board does hit a SB calling range in general and I'd prob give the probes some more respect.

Defender's MDF = 1 - attacker's RFE, RFE = (attacker's bet)/(attacker's bet + pot), so MDF = pot / (attacker's bet + pot)

You should have a river raising range but not sure what are good bluffs. This hand blocks 22 but I doubt he bets sets or trips with this size vs river. Maybe exploitative raise to fold hands like 77 and 8X?

I agree with other about betting flop. I'm guessing a 35/21 has a pre flatting range of pocketpairs, suited connectors and Broadway hands. If you had stats on his 3b it would help narrow his range down.