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NL Holdem 0.10(BB)
BTN ($12.03) [VPIP: 31.9% | PFR: 26.5% | AGG: 39.5% | Flop Agg: 43.6% | Turn Agg: 35.3% | River Agg: 36% | 3-Bet: 14.6% | Fold to 3-Bet: 40% | 4-Bet: 6.7% | Hands: 247]
SB ($12.66) [VPIP: 24.7% | PFR: 17.9% | AGG: 37.5% | Hands: 232]
BB ($19.34) [VPIP: 24.5% | PFR: 20.4% | AGG: 35.1% | Hands: 723]
UTG ($14.96) [VPIP: 23.6% | PFR: 18.3% | AGG: 30.6% | Hands: 1190]
HJ ($49.77) [VPIP: 22.2% | PFR: 19.1% | AGG: 45.7% | Hands: 332]
HERO ($32.99) [VPIP: 19.5% | PFR: 17% | AGG: 22.3% | Flop Agg: 21.7% | Turn Agg: 21.1% | River Agg: 25.7% | 3-Bet: 7.9% | 4-Bet: 8.4% | Fold to 4-Bet: 68.1% | Hands: 41604]

Dealt to Hero: K Q

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.25, BTN Raises To $0.78, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Raises To $2, BTN Calls $1.22

Hero SPR on Flop: [2.42 effective]
Flop ($4.15): 3 A 6
HERO Bets $1 (Rem. Stack: $29.99), BTN Calls $1 (Rem. Stack: $9.03)

Turn ($6.15): 3 A 6 Q
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $1.70 (Rem. Stack: $7.33), HERO Calls $1.70 (Rem. Stack: $28.29)

River ($9.55): 3 A 6 Q 3
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $7.33 (allin), HERO Folds

I assume the reason why no one else replied is because this is a very tough spot (in theory at least)

Imma start by saying that cbetting range here is a 6bb mistake (according to my sims) but ip has to play around 25% raise vs our range bet so I could see a case to be made. I still prefer to play a mixed strategy here but thats just me

Flop and turn look p standard to me, no way we can fold to the turn bet (id mix in some turn bets with this combo though)

OTR, in theory hes supposed to jam a bunch of single Ax hands like AJs, ATs, A5s etc to allow himself to bluff the crappy pps (99-22) which represent his 'bluff range'. Now I think its LIKELY that hes not finding those and whilst im generally not one to exploit, i think i could be convinced this is a spot to fold a bit more than equilibrum. However its worth pointing out that he may not jam enough Ax which could mean that hes not necessarily underbluffing.

Like i said tricky spot, this hand will call a decent amount at optimal (we have a lot of KK/JJ/TT that will fold a ton and having a Q is super relevant) so I'd flick in some calls but am aware that this is likely underbluffed

edit: little trick, if you want to cbet range otf and not lose much ev at all, then just size down to 15/20% size

Good post, chips. I remember reading this thinking I'd come back to it, but I open so many tabs at once, it probably got lost in the shuffle with other things.

PF - Not a fan of the 4b sizing OOP. You're gonna get looked up a lot. I wouldn't go $3, but $2.25-$2.75? Is this a Zoom/Blitz game? I don't play those, but word on the street is you can get away with smaller 4bs there.

Flop - Definitely a 15-20% spot. Good call, chips. Play it like AA. The micro-sizing makes people freeze more than autofloating.

Turn - Standard

River - I just assume BTN is checking so much of what I need them to have. I fold, but I don't feel good about it, and might be overfolding here.

Appreciate the response, haven't done much 4b pot studying so was kinda lost here

I've seen a lot of 1/4 potting (usually with range) in other 4b pot spots, so I just defaulted to that. Looking at the texture though (Axx with two low cards), I agree with splitting our flop range

Turn seemed like it would be an easy x/c in theory, but at the time I was wondering if even the better reg types in the pool know what they should be doing here. 10nl blitz on acr isn't exactly full of people using solvers. So many players lean tight/passive, so I would guess there'd be a lot of checking down with pocket pairs, but this guy is shaping up to look like an aggressive regular type, so it's probably alright

Would turn be bet sometimes because we don't have a diamond? Was a little surprised that KQ would be bet at all, but I guess if KQ is our only second pair then we're going to want to have some in both branches

River I was honestly a little bit tempted to call, but I just couldn't imagine a random 10nl blitz player was going to show up with worse often enough. It's for sure underbluffed by the population as a whole, but if anyone is going to bluff here it'd be 32/26/14 guy. So maybe shouldn't fold it 100% here

For this texture or in general?

3bp/4bp boards where cbetting 25 range is a slight mistake (its usually because a couple of hands suffer from betting 25%, in that case it would be KK and AA - those hands dont mind betting but they mind betting 25%)

Turn is just a high ev card for oop and our range overall wants to shovel $ into the pot. I simmed it and KQo no diamond is a slightly higher ev bet than x, KQo no diamond is compl. indifferent. Hard to say exactly why this bets, could find a lot of reasons e.g. block ip top end of range (AK,AQ,QQ), unblocks a bunch of folds (77-JJ)