Looking through a bunch of hands in my data base and looking at the profitability of c-betting the flop. I am a big red line winner but a loser at showdown. I have a very obvious leak there. I'm barreling more than I should and have hands like this where I think I am good.

Looked at my biggest losers and this was on there. Hand was a while ago so I do not remember too much about villain.

Running the hand through Flopzilla and given villains stats are far from spewy, I think I should of gave him more credit than I did. Villains stats are textbook ABC poker over the sample size.

Some of my biggest losers in my data base are 2 pair vs sets or 2 pair vs turned flush draws.

Seems like the winning two pair hands are the one when I have initiative, I am not facing counter aggression, and villains hit TPGK

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem $0.02(BB)
UTG ($2.03) [VPIP: 27.4% | PFR: 22.6% | AGG: 38.2% | 3-Bet: 16.7% | Hands: 64]
HJ ($3.45) [VPIP: 46.3% | PFR: 23.2% | AGG: 45.9% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 98]
HERO ($2.12) [VPIP: 27.4% | PFR: 16.6% | AGG: 33.1% | 3-Bet: 7.3% | Hands: 13856]
BTN ($3.25) [VPIP: 31.5% | PFR: 21.2% | AGG: 12.1% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 151]
SB ($7.99) [VPIP: 13% | PFR: 9% | AGG: 56.5% | 3-Bet: 2.7% | Hands: 102]
BB ($1.64) [VPIP: 30.6% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 29.7% | 3-Bet: 8.7% | Hands: 76]

Dealt to Hero: J A

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.06, BTN Calls $0.06, SB Calls $0.05, BB Calls $0.04

Hero SPR on Flop: [6.58 effective]
Flop ($0.24): J A 7
SB Checks, BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.17 (Rem. Stack: 1.89), BTN Calls $0.17 (Rem. Stack: 3.02), SB Raises To $0.50 (Rem. Stack: 7.43), BB Folds, HERO Raises To $1.90 (Rem. Stack: 0.16), BTN Folds, SB Raises To $7.93 (allin), HERO Calls $0.16 (allin)

Turn ($10.40): J A 7 3

River ($10.40): J A 7 3 7


SB shows: 7 7

SB wins: $4.31

the hands fine man. What's your cbet, though, if you think your leak is that bad? this hand isnt an example of loose cbet.

sb probably has a range of KcQc/KcTc/QcTc/77/JJ/AJs here. That's if he even flats those hands in the sb and raises them otf. You should call and either call down or jam a blank turn.

Didn’t think the cbet was bad. It was everything after that. I’m not assuming it’s bad because of the result. I was asking. Villain is pretty nitty and I came over top.

The whole cbetting thing just came out of what I was analyzing in general.

there are tons of draws out there, you block most sets, and can still be stacking off vs worse 2p/top pair.

Overplay

I'm not saying don't stack off. But where do you see people 4bet bluff 4 way flops? I doubt this is a7. I think we can find an exploitative fold at 2nl.

yeah but villain KNOWS that hero will assume that
there r tons of draws that people will happily get all in with. the only hand were really worried about here is 77, but thats just a small part of villains range. honestly this ones not even close IMHO. if it was bottom 2 it might be a different story

Mathematically speaking giving him a range A2-A9s, 22-JJ, 56s-KQs, chances of having a set using all hands that would continue from that range which includes all flush draws and 16%. Given the action I should of considered that.... I think. If for no other reason villain is nitty with the sample size I have.

I took out QQ-AA which should of been 3 bets. As well as AK-ATs and AKo. It’s a little liberal but close I’d say with his 3 bet % with the sample size. I know it’s small but using what I got.

Flopzilla says:
Set 16%
Top Pair: 56%
Flush Draw 24%

Folding to the last 8bb then?

If you're playing 27/16 pre, that's a massive vpip/pfr gap and you're probably calling way to much pre.

Yeah. I am big blind defend flatting way too much. I'm working on that. I do it alot in tourneys and it has been carrying over to my cash game. I haven't analysed the winrate yet. I do a lot of float bets with air/weak hands. It works on a lot of boards vs CO and BU but can't claim it is profitable until I look at the data.

Hand was played nicely pre-flop but on the flop I don't like the play. Yes, you have the risk of it being checked around but this board also hits your opponents range multiway. I think simply a x/r or a x/c is fine given this board texture.

This is what I was thinking. I went straight to draw/TPTK/2 pair. Not that I should of folded to the raise but that I wanted to give a bad price to the draws (hoping for a call) and value from TPTK/2pair. Didn't give consideration to the sets. Most of the time I am ahead here.

I think that's where I am asking bad play or cooler. So I value pwned myself.

I see what you are saying but I flopped a hand I should be able to get 3 streets of value from worse hands considering the texture.

I should of slowed down facing the aggression but my initial thought on this hand and any like it is to build a pot to get stacks in by the river depending on the run out.

I check and he checks and I have the 2 pair and he is drawing to the flush I can’t get value past the turn unless his flush comes or he bluffs. So then I have a premium hand I will only get one street of value from by checking the flop.

Checking flop is very bad. I know you're not the one bringing it up or wanting to do it but I'm floored that anyone would even consider it. tbf, it's what happens when you show results in the op.

how anyone could suggest not stacking off with 8spr and top 2 on a drawy board is completely baffling to me. ur putting Villain on exactly 77 here and folding every time? ooook rooofl