Villain is 38/6 but was passive

Think I'm going to get bashed for this hand, but wanted to check and perhaps develop some tougher skin at the same time.


Flop - think calling here must be fine or good


Turn - checking is a bit confusing. I think it must weight his range more towards air than nuts, but is there any point betting here? I think there is a real risk of getting raised again, if villain has air I won't get any more value. If villain's range still has a lot of draws perhaps betting might still be good


River - this is a big bet. I'm at the top of my range, so on this basis I should be calling. But, how often do you see a pot size river bet as a bluff

any thoughts?

You know yourself you should be calling. What is there more to say? All draws missed, you checked the turn river came card that cuts down on his value.

I'd be more inclined to call river on a 3 or 9; his line is credibly representing 8dXd. Vs full pot I might find an exploitative fold vs. an unknown. But yeah, you have to call aces no diamond, no spade.

I think you can (and should) bet small OTT with almost your entire flop continue range. His range is going to be very weak after x/r flop and checking brick turn so bet small and put him in a tough spot. If you get x/r again probably have to call again and re-evaluate OTR. The small bet is enough to put pressure on air since they have almost 0 equity and allows you to fold for cheaper when you get x/r again and have to fold your weaker hands.

AP: river is tough bc villain could very likely have 8x + draw but still ultimately has to be a call. Villain's range has so many bluffs that x/r flop, gave up OTT but then decided to bluff again OTR after it checked through. Don't want to read too much into bet sizing tells, but the sudden river pot bet screams bluff to me.

Agree with betting turn but I'd fold to a check raise (double x/r with air at 25NL, yeah ok).

OP, what is it about AA specifically that makes you fear a x/r? I feel many players are overwhelmed by an entitlement to get to rivers/showdown with their entire value range, then somebody renamed it Pot Control to make everybody feel better. Value hands that I would fear a x/r with OTT are hands that are drawing live vs BB value range. Something like KT. AA is drawing near dead v BB value range so what's the big deal?

A class of hand you didn't suggest he could have on the turn is something like yeah KT, a bluff that paired, in addition to hands like 8x. Betting gets value from those and if he double x/r'ed on a turn that many would perceive as better for your range then frankly the least he deserves is for you to get go of AA.

flop needs to be smaller. this is a board that hits bb well and he should be continuing a lot, often in the form of x raising. pop prob won't as much as they should but still

if you want to bet turn thinner, with AA, QQ-TT, 9x, go 1/2p or less with all your hands
otherwise bet big with sets and your big draws

ap I think weaker players tend to x turn with Kx, slowplayed sets and give ups

can't see myself folding river, think he has some Kx and a decent amount of air after the obv draws bricked

Thanks to all, been overplaying AA and trying to pull it back a bit, but have overadjusted

Don't fold river, that's nuts! Flat river, so many drawing checkraises that brick out. We are super under-repped, we cannot fold.