I'm going to start by just giving you the gist of this, feel free to answer just that. Then I will give a bit of supporting details.

I have been working with a guy and we put our stats together and we both thought just based on personal, anecdotal, experience that the following things were true for nl25 and nl50 among most of the population;

They play too fit or fold on the flop
They call again on the turn too often once they do call the flop
They fold at least enough and maybe exploitatively vs triple barrels.

We take this to mean;
tend to c-bet one and done with bluffs
only take the most pristine double barrel bluffs
tend to fire the third barrel if you bluffed the flop and turn.

Thoughts on these ideas?

(Again, I'm going to flesh this out some in the next post).

Thanks,

I wanted to give a more detailed account of what we think is true and why we believe it.

1) As long as you are not c-betting boards that are bad for you good for villain, the population will over fold vs 1/2-2/3 pot c-bets. They don't raise enough for value or as a bluff on the flop and they don't float enough but, rather, tend to play fit or fold on the flop as PFC.

2) IF they DO call flop, they under fold the turn. Even on good turns for us bad for them we find they will call at least once more with all their flopped top pairs, and most of their flopped second pairs, even when the turn makes top pairs second pair and second pairs third pairs. BUT, they are very honest with turn raises. Not raising thin for value or bluff raising turns often enough. Mostly nutted type hands are raising turn.

3) Maybe BECAUSE these players get to the river with most of the hands they got to the turn with (and by most I mean almost all), they fold AT LEAST often enough and maybe even over fold the river. They get there with weak ranges and they don't bluff raise enough. So they will not call a third barrel with a lot of the junk they took to the turn AND they aren't gonna CALL with the hands they should be bluffing with, they tend to FOLD those instead.

We believe that this means the following adjustments should be made (and please correct me if you think I'm wrong).

C-bet more of your bluffs than you might vs better players; c-bet exploitatively high on boards that don't obviously favor your opponent(s)

Once called tend to shut down your bluffs on the turn unless you have a very good/pristine double barrel (maybe you c- bet JsTs on 9s3c2d and the turn is the Qs).

And tend to not dub the turn unless you are planning on triple barreling a good number of rivers.

So mostly favor c-bet bluffs and shut down on turns
accept for very good turn bluffs
and
tend to follow thru with the third barrel once you fire the turn (also chose turns to dub that lend themselves to profitably tripling).


What do you all think about this?

I think you just solved nl25 and nl50

Mostly good work, I wouldn’t necessarily play a v pool strategy with barrelling though.

Regs are more likely to station you if they know what you’re up to (moreso at 50 I’d say) and I’d say fish are the ones who are more likely to be overfolding the river.