I dont think we have JJ or QJ otr given the turn action.

youre right on JJ we do have QJ tho if we bet smaller like I mentionned

With the AK with the BDFD I'm inclined to check back the flop. As played, I don't think the turn sizing makes sense in the context of your range and what you'd be trying to get value from when you actually have it. Would you overbet quads there? (River could be an overbet with quads and boats, but probably not the turn).

The other overbet hands look reasonable to me, but the AK somehow just looks "wrong".

Well if its not good spot and size to value bet then it is to bluff.

I think you can overbet A high flush is oke as well because V really has only 2combos of FH.

You rep super thin, trips don't really want to overbet this turn, so it's hard to have QJ and nut flushes don't really want to overbet this river. The only hand that makes sense really is 66.

I think your line is spot on though with a bit of bet sizings tweaks.

This is the best bluff I've seen you post. Only thing that makes it iffy is the Q paired. A player could absolutely own you if they had KcQx or a boat.

............................what do people think SB's range for coldcalling pre is? this is not good at all. I'm completely mystified by this thread. did anyone run this through a solver? or even just count villain's combos by street? you can't analyze hands by just saying what "seems" good or bad.

first of all he's going to be way overcalling turn so that bet is not good in a vacuum. he's supposed to fold some flushes, decent amt of Qx there, and that's never happening.

second, he's not even supposed to call all of his 66 combos OTR, and that's true even after locking turn node to call all Qx+!!! needless to say basically all flushes are supposed to fold river. I've tweaked the assumptions generously several times (eg looser SB coldcall, no flop raises) and as far as I can tell it's impossible to find a scenario where jamming the river isn't clearly losing in theory and REALLY REALLY losing in practice.

only 88+ and 8x are supposed to take this line. although you aren't supposed to be betting anything this large on the flop anyway, and it's possible that flop is even a 100% x depending on how tight he coldcalls SB. exploitively this is even more true as it's hard to find runouts on this board that he isn't overcalling vs your sizing. SB reg coldcalls just play vastly different than BB ones.

here are the EVs for AK jamming river if we assume he calls Qx+ on the turn, NF+ on the river (remember I mentioned turn bet is bad in a vacuum already, so is river):



here is the range he is actually supposed to call river with:

I think assumptions is
-he dose not call 66 pre(maybe pp 77-99 or TT)
-he folds 88 otf give our sizing and how many Qx FD and PP stronger then 88 he has
If that is true ott we have all nut combos he dose not have any

Thanks for the response MythrilFox. Is PIOSolver the endboss in discussions like this? Obviously no one is folding 66 here but it says in order to be GTO like it should fold the majority of time. Also most Villains will raise either on the flop or turn with strong holdings at this limit so exploitively a shove will get more folds.

well yeah pio is amazing and every top player uses it or some analog regularly. in this hand you don't necessarily need pio to get a rough idea of how his range will work in response to your bets though. on the turn you're repping very polarized with your bet and even your semibluffs have very few outs, so it's largely a nuts/air spot. that means he folds rough 3/5 of his range on the turn and 2/3 on the river, which, given how tight SB flats are in the first place, is an extremely narrow range.

you're right that I should have left flop raises in. not sure what I was thinking taking them out. I don't think turn raises are very likely at all when you overbet on this texture, though I don't play these limits so I guess I'll defer on that point. solver raises 66 otf about half the time. if I leave that in he's actually supposed to fold some 88 otr too. but if we assume that he calls Qx+ on the turn and NF+ on the river, and doing some rough math about which rivers you checkback on, the combination of your turn and river bets loses 40 cents or so compared to checking turn. that may not seem like that much but given the pot is only $3.37 on the turn, it's pretty significant. it's also basically a best case scenario for you.

edit: I guess haizem's post is a best case scenario but those assumptions are ridiculous man.

So pretty much everyone said this was a good bluff and it’s awful? Lol man poker is crazy. Thanks for clearing that up though, looks like PIO Solver is a must purchase. Does it take long to get proficient at using it?

Just further proof that I'm better at poker than everyone despite having no monetary benefit for being so.

X flop.


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not really no, they have some nice instructional videos up on youtube.

What resources would you recommend for determining people's preflop range? I would give SB call TT-22, AQo, KQo, QJs, QTs, JTs, T9s, 98s, and the middling AXs hands. Is this a reasonable guess for SB's pre range?

sb dynamic is a weird one

this seems to be a pretty spot on analysis otherwise

It's a bit hard to guess his range when he just flats from the sb w/ a strong player still to act in the bb. What we do know is whatever his range is for doing this he is highly likely to be some sort of fish.

So we are looking to vbet the f out of this guy and only bluff him in the most pristine of spots.

narrower if sb is a reg, wider if fish. typical regs 3-bet a lot of these hands.

I didn't. What do I win?

P.S. I saw in your PG&C that villain actually folded the river. He must have thought his 66 is no good.

I like the triple barrel bluff but I don't like the sizing.

I'd rather see you go: 33% pot on the flop, 80% pot on the turn, 2x overbet jam river.

33% flop makes no sense, why would we want to range cbet vs sb?

Yeah you and MMSS were in the bad bluff camp. You win green in your name! Lol yeah Villain knew his small FH was no good and folded the cooler lol.

why would betting 33% mean range bet?

This is actually a good line. Surprised by who made this post though tbh.

i assume this means keep in a large portion of their range. the reason hero should do this (sometimes) is because you don't want to make villain commit to their hand on a street before jamming.

i might be off base though ^. another merit is you want to hit an A or K and it be good. if we crunch down their range to da nuts we face issues in a bloated pot when we improve.