PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 118.8 BB (VPIP: 20.78, PFR: 12.99, 3Bet Preflop: 3.03, Hands: 80)
Hero (MP): 234.8 BB
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 32.97, PFR: 25.82, 3Bet Preflop: 12.07, Hands: 186)
BTN: 103.8 BB (VPIP: 24.69, PFR: 16.05, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, Hands: 81)
SB: 119.8 BB (VPIP: 21.52, PFR: 8.86, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 80)
BB: 101.4 BB (VPIP: 14.49, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 3.13, Hands: 73)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A A

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 23 BB, BTN calls 14 BB

Flop: (47.4 BB, 2 players) Q 9 J
Hero checks, BTN bets 22.8 BB, Hero calls 22.8 BB

Turn: (93 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero checks, BTN bets 58 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 58 BB

Flop x/c seemed like the only option with this flop, as I wouldn't put Villain on KK-AA. Turn is where the problem arises. I have 25% against AKs JJ-QQ, which I would say is the worst case scenario, and I need 28% to break even. What would you do in this situation? Also do you see villains playing AQ this way?

Fold turn man, I know it sucks but from what I've seen, when someone just flats a 4 bet they have exclusively JJ-QQ, AK and AKs and sometimes AQs. When he shoves turn I think he has QQ/JJ or AQ clubs (less likely). I can't run the calculation atm myself but I'm pretty sure you're far enough behind for it to be a fold.

Calling this. I think QQ is likely to shove PF and so we're really only behind JJ. Against a range of <JJ,AcKc,AcQc> we're at 32% equity, and I wouldn't be surprised if you see the other AQs combo or some spewy AKo at some frequency.

Even against <QQ-JJ,AcKc,AcQc>, where you assume villain is super nutted, we have 22% equity and don't need to find too much worse to make it a call. Put in literally one worse hand and we have the equity we need.

Why is x/c the only option on this flop?

I think it's best. It's a really bad board for our 4-betting range vs. a BTN 3-bet/call range. Villain has a huge range advantage and is also in position, so I think I would check my whole range OOP. c/c AA-KK, c/r QQ (or JJ if I have it), c/decide with AK, c/f whatever portion of A5s-A2s I have in my range.

Makes sense.

I think assuming he would shove QQ pre is wishful thinking, this guy has a decent gap between pfr and vpip and 3 bet on the low side, 5 bet shoving over an OOP MP 4 bet would be pretty bad with QQ and betting AK with a gut shot and bdfd when he has the option of s free card also quite bad. Betting AQ otf bad too given how strong he knows your range to be so heavily weighted towards JJ/QQ Here.

Sounds to me like justifying a hero call, which everyone seems to love to do.

+1

Never ever folding turn. Especially not after we (correctly imo) . As James says we need V to have very few worse hands to make it a call and if V does this with any more AK/AQ/KK/TT combos at all we have a bolt-on call.

KK/TT....? Wow

Yeah that's a good point, I don't think we are ever ever put on JJ-QQ by fish when we check, so the rockets are quite underrepped.

Isn't it also beneficial to us that we don't have a Ac (meaning that AA w/ Ac are a better fold)

wp man

Some of you guys' hand reading skills leave a lot to be desired

MP vs Btn 3 bet I'm literally only 4 betting KK+ for value and a couple of high equity bluffs, like possibly ATs and maybe KQs. His calling range is really strong and is almost exclusively weighted towards second tier premiums like JJ/QQ/AKs, it might not even include AQo here. It's a 4bp...he knows you have QQ+. Why on earth would he double barrel AQ in position, if he even has that in his range? AK is even less likely.

We're not 'underrepped' with AA at all, it's a totally reasonable check on a board this wet and the hand just isn't that strong given his likely range - calling one is OK but stacking off here is spew. B/f flop small would probably have been slightly better as he should raise all sets here and you can get away much more cheaply.

You seem to be getting into a lot of mean-spirited arguments on here lately where the general consensus is for one thing, and you vehemently insist that everyone else is dumb for not agreeing with you.

Cool, me too. We have 81 hands with V. He doesn't have our 4b range pinned.

Don't agree at all. Villains massively overcall 4bets IP at these stakes. There will be far more PPs, far more SCs, Axs, AQo, KQs in his pre calling range here. They also blast off A LOT more than they should when we check to them.

I thought he knew we had KK+? Wet board with TPTK in a 4bp. I think if V has made the mistake(imo) of 3b/c pre then they can't really get away from it now. Especially if we have KQs in our range.

5NL general population does not see rockets as a reasonable check on almost any flop as the aggressor. I am confused why you think V will bluff flop enough to call, but won't ever barrel. Given your pre-ranging of V, why are we even calling one bet if AK/AQ never does this?

^^ Nothing is mean spirited dude, it's online poker. Most threads I just give an opinion but this is one that is so obvious that I think sometimes people need a little shake. The first time I got coaching, the guy asked me about a couple of hands and just said, "that's terrible and you're wrong"...and I was like, did he really just say that? But it's better in the long run - being mollycoddled at poker and just ignoring obvious leaks is a quick way to lose a lot of money. This isn't music or art we're discussing, a hand can be proved 'right' or 'wrong' given certain parameters, and using any reasonable standard ranges here, which we have to do vs a relative unknown, it is wrong to call here.

RE the other bits: Yes he does know we have QQ+, this is why he isn't bluffing when he bets IP, that's my whole point. If he had AQ here he is praying to get checked to and get to a showdown. My whole argument is that we NEED to rely on him double barreling top pair for value IP (very very unlikely given we have 4bet pre and have JJ+ sometimes as a slowplay but more likely KK+, thaat's if he even has AQo in his range, he probably shouldn't) or double barrelling air (even less likely for same reasons).

This is why I think b/f flop is better. Because when we x/c flop, we're very very often doing it vs JJ/QQ...when he shoves turn by this point we're obviously beat, go on your tracking software and filter for 4bet pots where villain isn't the PFR and is bluffing. I have zero instances - literally not one in 1 million hands. Again, sorry if it comes off as mean spirited but it is a pretty obvious one - I've shown to the hand to a couple of people who really know what they're talking about and they said the same - IDK what else to tell you. You say above that he has KK/TT in his range here after betting flop (he doesn't have KK, TT would be lol bad), so in the nicest possible way there are some pretty sizeable gaps in basic understanding you have of ranges anyway. Take it on board or don't.

If V's flop bet is always QQ/JJ then I ask again, why are you not advocating folding flop? I really think you're underestimating how infrequently we need to be good to make the turn call okay, and your pre range is way off the mark.

What is mean-spirited is that you can't seem to have a discussion where someone (or most people) disagree with you without them being wrong and/or an idiot. You might think you're right, but you haven't convinced anyone else as yet and you've actually provided very little evidence comparatively. "I showed my mate and he agreed" doesn't count.

Again, JBJ's equity calculation:
"Even against <QQ-JJ,AcKc,AcQc> *, where you assume villain is super nutted, we have 22% equity and don't need to find too much worse to make it a call. Put in literally one worse hand and we have the equity we need." This is assuming the nuttiest range which, if he has exactly this, then you are correct and we should fold. However, this is 5NL and a typical villain's range will not be this strong or perfect (not that I think V should play all those hands this way. Villain might shove some or all QQ pre. Villain might flat KK pre. Villain might not 3b JJ. Villain might 3b/c ATs (most likely ATcc) and play it this way. V might 3b/c all AQs/AQo and play those this way. Villain might spew because we checked to him and blast off with AK. In folding (and being so cocksure that it is the right thing to do) you are making assumptions on all of these things (and more) and every time it just happens to fall on the side that fits your outcome.
*I don't think this is even necessarily the best way to range V. I think his range is wider including more better hands than us, but also more worse

There are a lot of variables in this hand that will come down to population reads, and when it comes as close as villain needing to have only one combo in his range adjusted to change the correct play I think having such a narrow and rigid view is ludicrous.

I'd hazard that if you think villain can have a lot of KQ/AQ combos then betting flop is much better exploit than check, because you expect them to make a lot more bad calls with those hands than bad bets.

I saw you replied but I'm honestly not going to bother reading it as I don't think there's much I can say to you, or about this thread. You lost any credibility when you claimed he had TT/KK here or that he'd bet AK. GL

It sounds like you didn't bother reading what I wrote in that previous post either

This.


Also, I don't normally advocate folding a 3bet+ pot with an SPR under 2 but we literally don't beat much here. We need villain to be in here with TT, KK, AK, AQ. The only logical one I see here is AK trying to get us off a chop. If we think he is a bad player I could get behind a call but readless I think I fold. At least that's what I say now. In game, I probably call it off though. I like to be able to sleep well at night.

+2. Coming across as antagonistic isn't doing you any favors.