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Call, Fold or All-in Call, Fold or All-in

02-19-2019 , 05:06 AM
Villain in BB, Hero in SB. Hero enjoys stealing ~30% and might be discredited by BB if he's paying attention.

MP+1: 122.6 BB (VPIP: 16.98, PFR: 15.09, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 54)
CO: 177.4 BB (VPIP: 20.97, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 63)
BTN: 113.6 BB (VPIP: 12.57, PFR: 10.47, 3Bet Preflop: 1.75, Hands: 193)
Hero (SB): 105 BB
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 6.38, PFR: 1.06, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 95)
UTG: 107.2 BB (VPIP: 21.90, PFR: 9.49, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 137)
UTG+1: 101.2 BB (VPIP: 7.50, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 80)
MP: 101.4 BB (VPIP: 6.45, PFR: 6.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 8 7

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB raises to 11 BB, Hero calls 8 BB

Flop: (22 BB, 2 players) 8 9 5
Hero checks, BB bets 21 BB, Hero calls 21 BB

Turn: (64 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, BB bets 41 BB, Hero ???

I figured this to be a bit of a interesting decision, mainly because of the fact that villain only has 27BB left in his stack after the turnbet.
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02-19-2019 , 05:18 AM
Would have x/raised the flop & got the money in for this very reason. Your hand plays terribly OOP & you have close to 40% vs an overpair anyway.

This always happens; you call the flop, the turn is a blank, or even a very good card like a diamond, he bets big & you dont know what to do.

Just stack off on the flop, but as played, you gotta GII now anyway.

Edit: Join date 2007, Posts 1??? LMAO, what the hell?
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02-19-2019 , 05:33 AM
Hehe, used to play alot back in 06-07 and decided it was time to try to grind a stack again

So I agree it is a misplay on the flop and that's why I put this hand down for review in pokertracker.

However while reviewing it I came to consider the all-in vs just calling situation and its a bit trickier because of the stacks. He's 100% calling my all-in on the turn or the river(if he has anything). Therefore I can draw for cheaper and save 27BB if I dont hit. Atleast that's a thought that came into my mind and interested to hear what you have to think about it.

Also if we narrow his bet range on the turn he's basically betting QQ+, KQ+,QJ,JT,T9 or a bluff ofcourse. If we dismiss the bluff I still have 43% equity vs this range.

Added bonus is that any flushdraw won't have a pair since 9d is on board and I have 8d, and the Queen is diamond ofcourse also

So I do have 43% equity vs this range with a free 27BB added bonus of him being commited if I hit
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02-19-2019 , 05:58 AM
Vs this Villain you should be stealing way more than 30% he is an Uber nit. I might just steal with any two cards. Because of this we can probably just exploit fold this hand pre flop Vs that sizing and this villian.
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02-19-2019 , 07:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DSA Stephen
Vs this Villain you should be stealing way more than 30% he is an Uber nit. I might just steal with any two cards. Because of this we can probably just exploit fold this hand pre flop Vs that sizing and this villian.
Yes, but the call is also a bit for image so that he won't be able to just 3-bet and get me off. I wanna make him hate it when I steal from him. A lower suited is perfect for this in my opinion since I'm unlikely to share cards with the 3-bettor and I can strong play draws vs a nitty opponent.
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02-19-2019 , 08:57 AM
But a nit simply will not care and not start adjusting because you over fold Vs 3bet. We are simply print so much with our steal that we can just avoid the low EV spot of calling this 3bet. Yes it is probably +EV but only just I would just fold and go back to exploiting him by stealing super wide.
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02-19-2019 , 09:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thimon

However while reviewing it I came to consider the all-in vs just calling situation and its a bit trickier because of the stacks. He's 100% calling my all-in on the turn or the river(if he has anything). Therefore I can draw for cheaper and save 27BB if I dont hit. Atleast that's a thought that came into my mind and interested to hear what you have to think about it.
If you plan to x/f the turn when you don't hit your draw, you're not getting the odds you need to call the flop. This is either a fold or a jam.
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02-19-2019 , 09:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by weirdmonkey
If you plan to x/f the turn when you don't hit your draw, you're not getting the odds you need to call the flop. This is either a fold or a jam.
Yes, I totally agree and I do need to work on being more agressive in these spots on the flop. I tend to overcall alot here.

My point was about the decision on the turn though (where we really should never find ourselfs if we played correctly on the flop.)
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02-19-2019 , 09:43 AM
this is super super super easy fold preflop
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02-19-2019 , 09:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by YouBetIcall
this is super super super easy fold preflop
Nope.
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02-19-2019 , 10:07 AM
Lol at his stats, just fold pre
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02-19-2019 , 11:57 AM
Turbo fold pre
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02-19-2019 , 03:52 PM
V will not have KQ, QJ, T9 and such in his range b/c he is a uber nit. He is repping KK+ or even AA+, so we can already anticipate on the F that he will keep barreling big. Just fold pre and print money with stealing 70+ %. He will not adjust because even AQ looks bad in his eyes. Only reason to call pre would be to hit 2p+ or a combodraw of sorts.
As played T should be a call because KK+ will bet or call R regardless+you get correct odds, some implieds and will not have any reverse implied odds. Jam T is fine as well but folding should not be an option IMO

So fold pre, fold F, call T
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02-19-2019 , 07:02 PM
Just because he's been a nit over 90 hands doesn't mean his range is KK+.
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02-19-2019 , 08:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BornToRun
Just because he's been a nit over 90 hands doesn't mean his range is KK+.
His range is QQ+ on the turn a nit is not using sizing like these without QQ+ he is playing his hand so face up and just never bluffing
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02-19-2019 , 08:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DSA Stephen
His range is QQ+ on the turn a nit is not using sizing like these without QQ+ he is playing his hand so face up and just never bluffing
I'm talking about pre.
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02-19-2019 , 08:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BornToRun
I'm talking about pre.
Pre his range is obviously wider but by the turn it's not, his pre range will still crush our hand
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02-19-2019 , 08:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DSA Stephen
Pre his range is obviously wider but by the turn it's not, his pre range will still crush our hand
Yeah, not interested in turn, my comment was solely about pre.
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