Uknown Villain

205BB deep (again pre should probably be bigger)


PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players


BTN: 241.2 BB
SB: 100.4 BB
Hero (BB): 206.4 BB
UTG: 102 BB
MP: 269.2 BB
CO: 128 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K Q

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, SB calls 2.6 BB, Hero raises to 15 BB, BTN calls 12 BB, fold

Flop: (33 BB, 2 players) Q 4 8
Hero bets 8.4 BB, BTN raises to 16.8 BB, Hero calls 8.4 BB

Turn: (66.6 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, BTN bets 63.8 BB, Hero calls 63.8 BB

River: (194.2 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero checks, BTN bets 145.6 BB and is all-in, fold

Fold turn or call river.

I'm sure there will be some posters who run this through a solver, and I'm curious what that will say in these spots. I think this is played right. Preflop gets weird. Yes, with deeper stacks we become more incentivized to raise a bit bigger or just flat more. But if we start raising too big we become very easy to play against. Even going to 20BB pre isn't likely to make a tangible difference in how this hand plays out because of how polarized he is. We probably just end up stacking off a bit more often because of the price we get. I think KQo is still strong enough to 3-bet pre here and get a lot of value postflop at this depth.

I'd actually consider folding the turn here. If we're behind what he's actually repping we have few if any outs. The flop min-raise tends to be a bit stronger in a spot like this where it's not going for any real fold equity. Then to be followed by a huge bet and there are no river cards we really like because we are dead against sets. I think mathematically it's the right call given you are probably still fairly high in your range, but in a spot that is underbluffed we can make a ton of folds. The river is mostly a good card for us but blech, we should still have some folds here and have to be at or near the bottom of our range at this point.

Pre I think is fine, not sure the sizing is correct, but it's the type of sizing I'd be going for. I think villain is basically repping sets, but we know there's only one combo of QQ left, and at 5nl, I'm not sure how often 44 is calling pre. Even 88 would be fairly villain dependent. Not quite sure why, but it feels like a slow played AA or KK is likelier than a set.

When I first saw the hand, my initial reaction was that villain had a spades draw. Obviously, he might not, but the fact you don't have a spade makes this a decent bluff catcher. Having the Kc is also decent, although I'd say that the K high flush is pretty unlikely, especially compared to the A high flush. I reckon yours is the best KQ to bluff catch with, but I think that just calling with the combos of AA, KK, and AQ without a spade might be enough (especially those with a club).

fooold

Case in point as to why I only play ~120bb deep.

Brutal spot. At 5NL this river is an extremely under-bluffed spot. You have to be right on the river way much more than you will actually be to make this profitable imo. I just fold against unknown V here.

hey guys, thank you so far for your answers !

maybe i can save some money by just folding to the turn potsize bet.
the 4 on the river isn't a pure blank, right? there is a small chance that villain turns A4s (maybe K4s, 54s) into a bluff or picks up the BD flush.. but it certainly happens rarely.

is everyone fine with the small cbet size?

thanks again

All this

Also this, my instinct on the flop was "this is Qx of spades" but the turn and river don't back that up (although if the river is QTss turned into a bluff then I almost love it). Is probably the rather predictable range of 88/44/space draws with the occasional out-there hand like T9cc although that is pretty unlikely

Ultimately comes down to the old adage of don't go broke with one pair, can hero call but instantly want to bash your head against the wall when you see th inevitable 88 and say "why did I just not believe it"