99 in 3-bet pot on paired board with flush OTR. Bet or check? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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99 in 3-bet pot on paired board with flush OTR. Bet or check?

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10-06-2017 , 03:26 PM

HinduReal

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 36

A somewhat weird hand in a 3-bet pot. Your takes please

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37843201

UTG: $6.35 (127 bb)
Hero (MP): $5.68 (113.6 bb)
CO: $10.24 (204.8 bb)
BTN: $3.51 (70.2 bb)
SB: $5 (100 bb) - VPIP: 28, PFR: 19, 3B: 2, AF: 3.0, CB: 44, FCB: 88, Hands: 189
BB: $11.70 (234 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9

UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.15, 2 folds, SB raises to $0.50, BB folds, Hero calls $0.35

I realise that it's a bit of a loose call vs a 2% 3-betting range but IP vs a relatively passive villain PF, I think it's borderline okay.

Flop: ($1.05) Q

(2 players)
SB bets $0.65, Hero calls $0.65

A pretty standard call on that board. Given villains tight range (over a small-ish sample, though) his range is basically: 12 combos AA, KK, 1 combo QQ and 16 combos AK against which I'm ahead.

Turn: ($2.35) 2

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Now, I think betting here is reasonable given villain's tendencies - he might be simply giving up his AKs here - but he might be pot controlling with an overpair and I do have SDV. I think it's a tricky spot in a 3-bet pot.

I have basically no air in my range (since I wouldn't flat such a villain with more speculative hands at 100BB stacks). I certainly don't have many Qs in my range here. So either I have QQ or an underpair (say 99-JJ). Therefore I assume that it's a spot where checking my entire range makes sense. (But if I had a bluffing range, 99 is about the worst hand I can have, rendering it a good bluffing hand...)

That said, I'm pretty certain villain isn't aware of that. By not betting, I certainly decrease the likelihood of getting him off overpairs OTR...

What would you do here?

River: ($2.35) 8

(2 players)
SB checks,
Hero ?

Now, I do have SDV and villain has still all the AK combos in his range. But what about villain's checking range here?
On the one hand, he appears passive PF and might have given up. On the other hand, my checking behind OTR might be an indication of "weakness" aka a capped range. Which might incline even this villain to bluff in that spot.

So if villain is thinking, I assume this check is making his range a lot more SDV-heavy. Since I likely can't beat any of his SDV hands and since the flush arrived, I assume that this is a pretty good spot to turn my hand into a bluff. (While I don't really have any flushes in my range, I don't necessarily believe villain is aware of that fact).

Would you bet or check behind?
And if you'd bet, how big would you go? Is this a good spot to overbet?

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Last edited by HinduReal; 10-06-2017 at 03:33 PM.

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10-06-2017 , 03:42 PM

thegibson

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 1,363

Sample size is fairly small, you won't have a good understanding of his 3b range until at least 1k hands. It is possible he's just been getting hands that aren't 3bets. I've played a 800 hand session and ended up with 18/14 and 2% 3b. Even though overall I'm closer to 25/20 with a 7% 3B. That aside I would b/f 1/2 pot on the turn. It puts villain in a very awkward situation with his entire range. You could say that it would be turning your hand into a bluff, but given the info right now we're behind more often than not. As played I would take the showdown as it's unlikely he will give you credit and fold. The gap in his vp/pfr and his very low 3b tells me he's not very comfortable in reraised pots. That doesn't mean he will fold KK+ on the river though. I think you have to bet turn and river to have a chance at moving him off his hand.

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10-06-2017 , 03:52 PM

simplelessons

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 3,018

He can 3b AQ and JJ, 189 hands isnt enough to exclude that.

As played check back river. He never calls with a worse hand and never folds anything better.

Edit: we dont need to bet the turn. This can easliy be a cbet once and give up play by villian.

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10-06-2017 , 03:56 PM

.isolated

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 21,495

I wouldn't bet river. It's not like we'd be repping a flush if we did so. He's checking to c/c if he has an overpair.

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10-06-2017 , 04:07 PM

HinduReal

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 36

Quote:

Originally Posted by thegibson

The sample size issue is real. But I think in combination with the vp/pfr gap, 44% C-bet and 88% fold to c-bet, it's more likely than usual that villain isn't the most aggro type...

Would you bet turn with your entire range?
And: If you bet turn, what is your plan OTR when called and checked to again? Shove on most rivers (except, say, an A/K/Q?)? Would a

on the river make you more or less inclined to barrel? It shouldn't help villain's calling range all that often (KK+; AhKh ?) but remains a scare card.

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10-06-2017 , 04:35 PM

JamesBJames

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 5,791

Fine with hand up to river, but I'm just checking behind river. I thought your argument was going to be whether to go for a thin value bet OTR-- not about turning our hand into a bluff. I doubt he folds a single better hand.

(edit: on mobile, missed that the flush came in. Kinda feels like we're in a weird spot where nothing worse calls and very little better folds, so I'm still checking back river.)

Last edited by JamesBJames; 10-06-2017 at 04:40 PM.

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10-06-2017 , 04:42 PM

itaba

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 339

Quote:

Originally Posted by .isolated

I wouldn't bet river. It's not like we'd be repping a flush if we did so. He's checking to c/c if he has an overpair.

this

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10-06-2017 , 04:57 PM

BackdoorQuadsDraw

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 404

Haha wtf...so many words for such an easy decision. Snap check back

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10-07-2017 , 08:25 AM

HinduReal

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 36

Well, I ended up checking back in that spot and he showed up with JJ. If that hand is in villains range - as simplelessons correctly pointed out - I wonder if

a) 99 should never be in our calling range PF? (which, I guess, depends heavily on AQ being in V's range as well)
b) if we do call w/ 99 in that spot: don't we have to turn it into a bluff at some point on such a runout? Otherwise, most of our EV comes from set-mining and that alone hardly justifies calling in the first place given stack sizes.

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10-07-2017 , 08:58 AM

#10

simplelessons

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 3,018

We should only turn our hand into a bluff if he will fold. Not a lot of people folding better JJ, KK, AA, or better here right? We have more queens than he does, however we'd need to start bluffing on the turn to rep one. I just think most of his range is going to call us down and we end up losing a bigger pot so often.

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10-07-2017 , 10:11 AM

#11

BackdoorQuadsDraw

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 404

OP your grasp of ranges and equities seems to be off, I'd recommend looking at some decent preflop charts. Villain can have a lot of Ax suited, AK, Possibly AJ if he's loose and some high equity bluffs like 10 9 suites etc. This is never ever a fold IP with 99, you have the odds to set mine and you may well be looking at overpair or second pair that you want to be calling one or two streets with, depending on flop texture.

You absolutely must call flop, raising is pretty bad IMO. When it comes to the turn, think about his continuing range, is there any hand you beat that he is x/calling a 2/3 psb with? I can't think of one, his entire contuining range beats you, same on the river. I could get behind a small bet, like 40% pot or so for protection and to ensure he doesn't bomb the river, but not a standard sizing here, it's just too thin.

You can't win every hand, but you can play every hand in the most + ev way.. I'm convinced that the right line here is call pre, call flop, x or underbet turn and x river. Sometimes he will show up with a bluff that gave up, he might be the type that 3 bets 88 from the sb pre as some guys don't have a sb flaring range. Essentially when you don't hit your set you wqnt to play a small pot and get to a showdown as cheaply as possible

Last edited by BackdoorQuadsDraw; 10-07-2017 at 10:18 AM.

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10-12-2017 , 10:08 AM

#12

HinduReal

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 36

@BQD: I fully agree with your points against a reg.

However, I think given villain's stats (not only 3-bet, for which the sample is indeed rather small, but the overall picture) it is fair to assume that his 3-betting range is linear and rather value-oriented vs a HJ open. Even from the SB. Thus, I never expect him to show up with 88 or T9s here.

Even against that villain
- I agree that calling pre remains okay.
- Calling flop is okay too. All the AK combos are still in villain's range.

Once I know JJ+ is in his 3-betting and c-bet flop range, I think double barreling becomes a very legit option once he checks turn. His c/c range in that spot is likely only JJ+. Given the board's nature, I never see him checking AQ OTT.

99 is basically the bottom of our range OTT and turning it into a bluff there - with the intention of barrelling most rivers - would make it pretty tough to call two streets even for overpairs, especially if a flush-completing river hits.

As played, I'm still uncertain about the river spot. For one, I do still think that villain's range is SDV-heavy but not nutted after he checks (AK, at least with a heart, should bluff the river). Once villain checks, we are usually beat with our nines. At this point, villain's range is just full of big PPs. At the same time, we have way more flushes in our range. The question is whether that villain type ever folds an overpair. Thus, I wonder about the overbet river line. (Which I would comfortably use with my flushes as well since villain never has a FH or better here).

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10-12-2017 , 11:33 AM

#13

BackdoorQuadsDraw

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 404

Quote:

Originally Posted by HinduReal

His c/c range in that spot is likely only JJ+.

Exactly, why donate money to a stronger range than your own and make a weaker range fold? You have great showdown value vs his X range and terrible vs his X/C...it's a no brainer X or small bet and X river for me. If you bet turn 70% pot and he calls it, do you honestly think you're getting him off a better hand than 99 on a 2s river at NL5? Maybe if you shove river but do you really want to tak that line here? Hands you want to turn into bluffs are busted FDs etc ie hands with no showdown value. Turning second pair into a bluff here is just spew IMO.

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