PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $5.16
Hero (SB): $9.83
BB: $8.36
UTG: $13.77
MP: $5.00
CO: $5.79

Hero posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A J

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.15, fold, Hero raises to $0.60, fold, CO calls $0.45

Flop: ($1.25, 2 players) 5 Q 8
Hero bets $0.62, CO calls $0.62

Turn: ($2.49, 2 players) 9
Hero bets $1.59, CO calls $1.59

River: ($5.67, 2 players) Q
Hero ???

I know that busted FDs should almost never be bluffed, but in this scenario here I think it could make sense?? We're blocking the Top Pair, which gets even more unlikely OTR, he would have played Sets more aggressively... So I think he's gonna have a hard time calling the shove here does he? How would u guys have played the river here?

Solver analysis: the 9s are the stone worst turns for our range. On my inputs, on this turn we have around 12/105 combos of 2 pair or better whereas V has 17/89. The solver does build a small betting range around our overpairs and better which includes betting your specific hand at a high frequency. The problem is that we check almost all our queens. Which, then makes the river Q the worst for our range again down this game tree and the solver almost checks our entire range.

I node blocked our hand to bet AQ 100% OTT to see how that changed anything and the solver still hates your hand as a bluff and uses it as a pure check OTR still. It uses AJo combos and KJs of clubs and spades as bluffs.

So, in short, the solver does like using Js as bluffs, just you have better candidates than your hand.

his hearts and straight draw hands got there and we block his diamond missed draws. having a hard time getting behind using it as a bluff but i do understand your reasoning, my go-to reasoning is to assume all villains are fish until proven otherwise, i wouldnt want to make this move vs suspected fish.

thank you guys! I also put it in the solver real quick and saw that betting flop 75% is the best way to go OTF, but OTT I have to slow down and x/c this hand.

Isn't this x/fold on the turn? Solver calls this?

id be shocked if it x/f for that sizing?

Do you routinely x/f nfd combo draws with an over on OTT?