River Overbet bluff shove here? 25NL
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 2,765
UTG -- limps
UTG+1 -- Raises $1
Hero in BU (8d8c) Calls $1
Flop ($3.35)
6d3dAc
UTG -- Check
UTG+1 -- Bets $1.6
Hero -- Calls
Turn Pot ($6.55)
3s
UTG -- Checks
Hero -- Bets $6
UTG -- Calls
River Pot ($18.55)
9s
Villain has $35 remaining
Hero has $55 remaining
Villain is pretty standard textbook play. Pretty much have him on A mid kicker or like a sticky KK.
Do we try a bluff shove here?
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 1,020
Is this fr or 6max? If it is fr, I suppose the combo of A3s is unlikely, as are 33 and 66. If those are in villains pf range, he could take this line with at least one or two of those combos (plus AA). So, I don't think villain is completely capped, just quite a lot.
Question is, what are you repping. 1 combo each of A3s and 33, 3 combos each of 66 and 99. So 8 combos. That means you can have 8 combos (which is a little generous vs optimal villain) of bluffs.
You want villain to have a diamond draw, and ideally, not a suited mid to high ace, as these are most likely to call. You have a d, so that makes your hand a less likely good bluff candidate. Your other card is a club, which blocks no A8s.
I don't know if the overbet would be good or not, but if it is, I don't think your hand is good for it. Plus, you have showdown value as you beat all flush draws. However, if you feel like the vast majority of villain's range will be FD or weak to mid aces, and that he will fold all of these, and maybe only call with slow played monsters, then it makes sense expolitatively.
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 3,610
First of all, i would just x/back turn if i knew he could still hold Ax and just give up for some random reason. We have decent showdown value and i wouldn't choose this combo for bluffing. Do it with a combo that doesn't have showdown value.
As played i woulnd't bluff river. I think it's ridiculous to expect villain to lay down top or 2nd pairs. He has a very easy time bluffcatching on this runout, since there are no draws completing. You're basically representing 2p+ here, which is easy to bluffcatch.
Join Date: Apr 2021
Posts: 5
pf fine, flop fine, turn you have enough sd value to x back and try to check down on riv. I'd be looking to bluff your flush draws and those lower pocket pairs you peeled on the flop (stuff like 44 with a diamond.) I prefer smaller on the turn as the vast majority of your range is stuff like AJ, AT and you very infrequently have the better given the pf action. You bet smaller to hedge against he possibility of villain trapping and you are forcing calls from weaker sd hands in his range.
As played, I still think we have tiny bit of sd value (villain has a few missed flush draw combos and some combos of 76s, 65s) so I'd check riv
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 16
I would suggest bet river big.
The reason is "u already bet the turn and get called"
I agree "siebenacht" to "not bet the turn"
But once u did bet the turn, u better bet river big.
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 3,673
fold flop, debatably fold pre
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,509
Pre okay call.
He kind of lost it with starting utg+1, then only utg, hard to follow.
Can call flop one time, but definitely fold turn if bet. As others have stated, we hope to check it down.