Still new to the overbet game, but I think this is okay because...

1. I have QQ+ and BB doesn't.
2. I really don't have any real bluffs on this board.
3. I have pretty much the worst hand I could have with zero SDV.

Is that line of thinking correct?


Ignition - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $11.27
BB: $16.72
UTG: $11.64
MP: $21.86
CO: $9.78
Hero (BTN): $14.05

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has 4 7

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65, 2 players) 3 K 8
BB checks, Hero bets $0.31, BB calls $0.31

Turn: ($1.27, 2 players) Q
BB checks, Hero bets $1.71

1. meh not really... you should checking QQ alot for the size you are using. but if you are betting QQ on the flop, good for you if the turn is a Q. but it does not change too much. so if you check back QQ on the flop you would still use an overbet strategy on the turn.

2. i dont know what that means
3. true.

it is an overbet spot so overbetting is a good way to go. but your overbet bluffs should mostly come from JT/J9/T9 , Flushdraw combos, some weakpair like A3 and some Ahx like Ah4x Ah5x... If you bet total airballs you want to rather bet the club combos that unblock missed backdoor flushdraw hands that villain will fold now on the turn. Solver will bluff some total airballs (with a low frequency) but he will then rip it in on blank rivers unblocking everything.

Double jeopardy : I will take poker for 200$ please

Question:

1. I have all the <insert combos here> , villain doesn't
2. This is an overbet spot - we have top end advantage here
3. We don't have any natural bluffs on this board

Answer:

I am new to the overbet game too, but this is pretty much the opposite of an overbet spot from what I understand.

You don't really crush Villain that much on this board. Yes, you can have AA/KK/AK, but as Zuko said you shouldn't have QQ. Both players can have 88/33/KQ.

Villain basically has no raising range on this flop, so can easily still have sets on the turn. I think overbets are better when Villain is likely to raise flop with big hands, and therefore you have far more strong hands on the turn than he does.

despite having "only" 45% equity, we basically only use an overbetstrategy

https://gyazo.com/9b39399b701942511ce120b55d0c9a18

Can you show Villains range/decision in response to it? And what happens if we only give it an even larger betsize - because OP will have to bet even larger if he's bluffing so often that 74s is included.

It's okay to lose some hands. It's okay to cbet and give up.

it is okay to fold some garbage hands pre. it's okay to attempt to steal and give up

Turn is a check/give up.

I’m living proof you can be very basic and do quite well at 10NL.

Overbetting with 0 equity is fish thing 99% of time @10NL

OP is learning and experimenting - this is not about winning this hand/@ 10nl
10nl is the least risky and best place to do experiment so that you are well equipped when u move up

he has identified the board texture to do it and the spot. - so progress!

now he needs to know what to do when ppl continue calling his bets

I hope you're not implying that's what should've happened this hand because 74s is $$$ as a button open and this is a good range bet spot if you're using a smaller size than OP used = or even if you're betting bigger and polar this is a good c-bet because it has no SDV but a backdoor FD and backdoor gutty on a 5 or 6

ob spot but crap hand
imagine the host of better hands to bet

What isn't an overbet spot? Is an overbet spot basically any spot where there isn't a straight, flush or boat possible on the turn?

the max nuts in villains range should be lower than yours - he should be capped at a lower level X in the nut ladder

edit eg:
based on my heuristic,
UTG vs BTN SRP - AK2r - assuming he doesnt trap, villain can have max 22 (set) here - whereas you can have bigger sets

reducing reverse implied odds / protection is also an important factor apart from nut advantage. Like in this hand.

Yeah, I think this applies on most boards where there isn't a straight, flush or boat possible on the turn (apart from a few like 2378 say)?

On these boards we have all the overpairs and they don't, and depending on the highest card we have top set and they don't.

Not a fan, this just looks like FPS and variance got you.

What variance?

Definitely.

Vast majority of what makes a winning player at 10nl is just plain old getting more value from your big hands against the fish than they take from you when the situations are reversed.

I mean it's good to experiment and suchlike to expand your arsenal of skills (there's tonnes of **** I admit full well that I don't know if I can do profitably like triple-barrelling / overbetting / 4-betting light etc.) but I just wonder if the best way to learn and move up is to be a winning player over ~100k-odd hands at a certain limit - have a nice reliable winrate and proof you're a successful player and then more-or-less change nothing when you move up and see how your results go - and then of course adapt and learn if there's a noticeable drop in your winrate at the higher level.

I was thinking about this, and had some thoughts as to why it can be a good play, but also why it's likely more of a bad play.

For this particular hand, villain did end up folding. Which I suspect is going to happen quite often on this board. Someone mentioned that I don't have that much of a nut advantage because villain will have hands like 88, 33 and KQ. This is true, but you also have to consider how wide he should be defending his BB vs a BTN open. So yes, he will have some combos of those strong hands, but he's also going to have wayyyyy more air that won't be able to do anything but fold when facing an overbet.

So overbetting is good, right? I believe from an exploitative standpoint, sure. If villain is going to fold almost their entire range, we're practically printing $$ by overbetting.

But are we winning as much as we could?

If villain is folding so much when we overbet this turn. How are supposed to win stacks when we actually have a monster? Other than by not overbetting in the first place.

step1 - I overbet vs whales with my nuts - they call
step 2 - I overbet vs regs with my bluffs - they fold

the regs note what i show with my overbets in step 1

sooo - If Villain has a lot of air in his range. do you rather want to bet big or small ?