Quote:
Originally Posted by sossinbergs
I think we should be checking the turn. The As is basically the best card in the deck for our range and the worst card in the deck for villains. That means it will be very difficult for V to continue with a lot of hands on this turn vs a 75% pot bet. If we had a hand like the nut flush or second nut flush then betting bigger makes sense because we're trying to get our opponent to stack off when they have a worse flush. For this bet size V will probably fold most of their Jx and Tx and the turn meaning we will only be getting called by hands that beat us. If you do want to bet you should bet a lot smaller, like 25-35% pot.
If we check the turn and V checks the river again then we have a pretty easy value bet knowing our hand is usually best. If V bets the river then we can decide what to do, depending on their bet size. As well if we bet on the turn and get jammed on we are in a really tough spot.
On the river AP it's a tough spot. We need to be correct around 24% of the time on this river, but I just don't see how this could ever be a bluff or a worse value hand. We also have plenty of flushes in our range to call down with. Unless I've seen a player make a move in a spot like this before I'm probably leaning towards folding.
Villian is a whale mate. We're leaving money on the table and giving a whale free river cards by checking. These types of players won't fold a pair with a spade in them.
Do you think the typical whale thinks anything about what our range is and what cards are good for each players range?
We should be full on exploiting these players by value betting relentlessly not checking 2 pairs on a 3 flush board .
Hand looks well played . Difficult to read though can't you do anything to convert these hands OP they look really messy and hard to read