150BB Effective 10NL 6max

Folds to the BTN who opens for 3BB, SB folds I'm in the BB with AA

I 3bet to 12BB, BTN calls.

Pot is 24.5BB

Flop is KJ8

I cbet 16BB - BTN calls.

Pot is now 56.5BB

Turn is J

I bet 38BB into 56.5BB pot - Villain ships All IN - for 122BB total (84BB more to me) Hero ?

We’re in a vacuum on vil right? I like a larger bet on the flop here around 20bbs. That J ott is awful. Check. AP fold to shove.

well, he has a lot of J here.

maybe folding against his shove. I would bet larger otf, and ott i bet like %26 of the pot.

Idk if im always folding against his shove, but yeh, i think you are beaten here.

dont bet the turn this is the worst card in the deck and you are not getting 3 streets anyways

Yeah I should of checked the turn. Do you fold to the turn shove?

Check your whole range on this turn

This

+2

Yes but as played do you call or fold?

I hate it, but I call. Villain is playing a boat or Jx like a total donkey. You only have to win this about 40 percent of the time, and MDF (in a vacuum) would locate your AA high enough in range to defend.

Spazzy lines are often just bad players, playing (bluffing) badly.

Sigh call.

Well I don’t have many Jx in my range and the only hands that beat Jx are KK which sometimes checks the flop. Do you think Villain played it bad if he’s shipping a hand like AJ on the turn? I think you’re right and it is a call, but then that probably makes AK a call on the turn as well.

I know I messed up and should of checked the turn but is Villains play really that bad if he ships a Jack here?

No.

By percentage odds Hero risks 84 to win 216.5, needing 38.8 percent chance to break even. By pot odds this is 300:84, unless my brain just does not work today.

Isolated what’s your play here? I know check turn but as played

I think he’s saying that because it’s the turn and not the river. That it’s not that simple

Shipping Jx or a boat here only costs villain money by forcing you to fold your bluffs and Kx. You know how you play, and how often would you suddenly check fold the river on this runnout? The board is dry, villain should never have a raise here.



AA and TPTK are located closely in your range. However AA on this board blocks AJ really hard, and does not block a spazzy overbet from Kx (other than AK). So, this deep I might fold AK and call AA, since it is sorta close. If you call AK and fold all the rest of your Kx, its probably fine. The exact combos can be worked out as an exercise or with a solver.

Mainly, the spazzy Kx is part of the times you win this hand. This deep, you need this bet from this player to contain some Kx as well as bluffs and Jx/boats. Also, you will bink the top fullhouse on the river about 5 percent of the time.

Notice, how if you are 100BB deep, this is an insta-snap call. 100 is really not very deep at all, and these decisions are so much easier.

Villain is all-in and you still have 2 outs to top full house.

If u have to cal 86bb and pots 215 or w/e...EQ needed is like closer to 20% than 30%. I probably call but you shouls check turn

Yeah it’s 84 to win 300ish so 28% equity

Unfortunately, this won’t be the last time my napkin math is wrong. There is reason for this, but no excuse. Fortunately, the decision to call stands, imo.

Analysing hand have some tricky situation if you made mistake action before, as played in GTO I assume you have to call otherwise you would only have boat to call which isn't enough. But you have to know that GTO are probably check turn

I think it's very close. I'd probably call because I tend to call more often than not when I think it's close. However, it's probably a fold because this falls under my "people don't raise < AK postflop when there's an A/K high flop" rule which has served me well at Ignition since I can see cards later

Robert, nothing but
was just ****ing around with ya.