ACR 5nl
CO: 115.4bb (43/22/7 over 162 hands)
Hero (BTN): 129.8bb
BB: 125bb (36/29/29 over 14 hands)
SB is bad reg

Hero is dealt 77
CO raises to 2.4bb, Hero calls 2.4bb, BB raises to 10bb, CO folds, Hero calls 7.6bb

Don't think there's much to say here in terms of decisions. I'm probably folding 66.

I think BB has at least {88+, AJ+, KQ}, and I guess various weak suited connectors (possibly 77/AT/KJ too). He has a lot of incentive to flat the more in-between hands, though I'm not sure he knows that CO is fishy.

Flop (22.8bb) 584
BB bets 12.4bb, Hero calls 12.4bb

Don't think there's much to say here either, easy call. Villain probably bets 88+ and diamonds, maybe some offsuit broadway diamond combos, and then some possible 6x/7x combos. I don't think villain will have the straight or lower sets, but could have 85s/84s.

Turn (47.6bb) Q
BB bets 15.8bb, Hero folds

I need such little equity to call here, but I feel like I'm probably smoked by most of his betting range. I don't think I can assume this guy is firing with AJ or something.

If anything I would have preferred a raise on the flop. BB should have a lot of hands that miss this board but if we're played back at I'm shutting down. AP turn is a solid fold.

I'd would not fold turn for that sizing w/o specific read.

I think I would call that turn bet, just because I think BB looks a little bit fishy and I do think v can fire that second with AJ (although unlikely..)

The sizing on the turn doesn't really scream the nuts either. Yeah I would call and reevaluate on the river. Think you could value bet really thinly on many rivers and take it down. Or you could go for a showdown to get some more info about v.

Could also see myself raising OTF as @StackedYouSon suggested. That flop hits your perceived range harder than villain and it can win you the pot directly.

+1

i'm not folding turn to that sizing either. you have blockers to the nuts and 1/3 bet on turn doesn't seem like a set/overpair on this wet board.

Even 1/2 pot i'm probably still calling, but that's maybe a leak for me.

I dont think he ever 3 bets from the BB with 85s, 84s like you stated in your post. Maybe a whiffed AK,AJ. Even KQ, AQ would bet more imo.

Honestly I don't like like flattitg flop. I understand it but your hand is beyond vulnerable - it would take much longer to list the bad turns then the good ones. Look what happened in tjisbhand specifically fo a good example.I would raise flop, it follows a concept a pro talked to me about - merging your bluff range IP.

So obviously your hand isn't that strong but it has a lot of showdown value but is highly vulnerable against Broadways, big aces, diamond draws etc. He can a) fold to the raise - there's a great chance of this if he has something like AK, a non nut FD, A8 suited etc, and that's great outcome. If has has QQ+ or a set or something like AdKd he'll shove and you can fold.

He could also call. That narrows his range to non nutted holdings. Now all of the 'bad' turns are great for you to barrel - any diamond, and card that completes a 4 to straight etc. If it's blank you can check it back and use the same strategy on the river. He might even might even bluff a blank river and you have a reasonable bluff catcher

^^^ Sorry that's so badly typed btw I'm on my phone, should be able to understand what I mean hopefully!

The reason I didn't consider raising is because my range is going to contain very few nutted hands or draws (though I guess villain might not know that). I'm not raising anything. I'm a fan of equity denial-based plays, but I didn't think this was a great spot for it.

If this had been me opening the BTN and getting 3bet, then I'd be more likely to raise the flop. I also don't think villain will have A8s here or will fold a non-nut flush draw to a raise. He probably doesn't have the two pair often either.

Really? You can't have a set, straight, FDs or OESD here? I have no idea how you construct ranges then. For me in the same position that flop smashes my range and the concept I talked about is something I do often, with a lot of success. If you think calling is higher EV then more power to you, just not sure why you'd fold turn if that was the case. If you call turn are you calling a 9+ river? Are youI calling a diamond?

I'm calling the turn here for sure. I want to see the river and how he plays it.

I'm undecided about the right approach on the flop. I think I like a call but I could go either way.

Seriously? Come on guys this is getting into spew mode. We're flatting turn now with third pair in a 3bp? What are we hoping for, a river blank and a dheck, and also hoping he was double barrelling pure air? There's some wishful thinking going on ITT

Calling 76s versus an open and then a squeeze would be pretty bad. I have 88, but not 55/44. I'm folding 22-55 to the squeeze, 66 I'm more on the fence about. I have maybe 4-5 diamond draws.

Villain is fishy, so I'm 3betting a linear range, then calling with hands that aren't strong enough to 3bet, which would be weaker broadways/suited aces, middle/low pairs, and suited connectors. I then probably fold the bottom half of this range to the squeeze.

I don't necessarily think it's higher EV, I just didn't consider having a raising range for the reasons that I listed.

I folded the turn because I think it's fairly close, and I was uncertain in-game. I had also said in the OP that I think villain's turn betting range could be pretty strong.

edit: I did think the turn sizing was kind of weird though. I feel like most villains in my pool would size up with value hands here. Usually they go bigger than they should.

That price he is laying us is enticing. We only need 20% equity to call here. I think when you factor in position and implied odds I have no problem seeing the river here. I snap fold to a normal size turn bet but not to this size.

It's not the turn price so much but BB's sizing throughout the hand that intrigues me. He squeezes small, bets half, and then bets 1/4th. I think fish tend to follow "big hand big bet" or be trappy, so when he sizes down turn I get the sense that he doesn't feel as good about his hand.

I don't think we can call turn and expect to get to showdown or be good at showdown very often. He can do this with 99+ as well as the big overs that missed, where he just isn't sure what to do with his hand. If we are going to continue with the hand, we might be better off turning our hand into a bluff and trying to fold out his 99, TT, JJ hands. It might not work all the time, but I do think its better than calling turn and praying we get to check back the river.

You're probably thinking A) don't bluff a fish and B) what do we rep?
A) I think we can bluff fish sometimes when they play their hands face-up and show weakness.
B) What we rep isn't super relevant if this guy is a fish and has a weak hand.

This is a call you have like 6 outs that more then 12% of equity plus some times he dose this with AK FD or junk.
Maybe you could go for a raise because this small sizing dont seem to strong and willing to put rest of the stack in.Problem with this is you have caped range so maybe if he is good,he can read that but he probably is not.Call is standard

It's now 'standard' to flat a turn with 6 outs and 12% equity. I love you 2+2

12% of equity just base on outs plus equity when we are ahead.Be sure you understood comment before you add ironic replay

I understood. How can we say we have 12 outs though as he can have a FD and have a set already, and the 'if we're ahead' thing...really? We're relying on him double barrelling air in a 3bp and then giving up on the river. Come on now

Well he is very unlikely to 3bet small pairs pre so not many sets and if he can have a FD we are already ahead so thats brings our equity up not down.

+1

^^ I just don't understand how some of you guys think about the game. He has every pp 88+ in his range, every strong queen, a ton of FDs and some SDs and has shown a lot of aggression already, yet we're flatting a second barrel with third pair in a 3 bet pot, in the hopes of catching an offsuit 7 or 6, or that he has a flushdraw and misses and decides to check it to us. Madness

Would you also fold if he bets 1BB ott? Folding for 1/3 psb is way off optimal here.

Dude - it's NL5...I doubt most NL5 players could even spell GTO. I don't even agree that it's not GTO to fold anyway, we have so little equity against his double barrel range regardless of the sizing and by my maths we'd need 20% to call.. It's a 3bp, 1/3 pot isn't even that unusual a sizing. if he bet 1bb then yes call and draw to your 6 outs (only 4 of which are probably clean) but you're not getting the odds here to call another 15bb and you're almost literally never ever in front. I'm not sure if villain understands underbets but he's either thin value betting with something like TT or just missizing TP+. Would you really barrel flop and bluff turn with air for 1/3 pot and then give up river? Honestly have you ever taken that line? I never have in 1 million hands.

This is why I advocated raising flop, there are so few good turns and even fewer good rivers that we would love to take it down there and then, or at least have the option to take a free river. Calling flop is ok-ish if we spike or turn blanks, but carrying on when the queen hits is pretty much spew, for me, and having my way out of NL5 I can unearthly this is the kind of spot that I learned pretty quickly to just muck, save the money and look for better spots.

Completely true, it's madness.

For me at least, I'm looking for information about V (who's basically unknown), but also that I think that we can be ahead some of the time.

It's a common spot where we flat on the BTN vs the CO raise and BB decides to squeeze. I have no idea what range BB is squeezing with sure it can be {88+, AJ+, KQ}, but it can also be SC's or some random spazz. Got no clue.

But, say that V has AJ+,KQ+,88+ we still have roughly 40% equity vs that range on the turn.

If v fires again on the river, sure then it's a easy fold, but if not I could check it down and see what V is squeezing with. If the flush completes on the river and v checks, I sure as hell could see myself taking a stab.

Probably worth noting in the OP that ACR has probably the toughest online cash games on the planet because of the Beast (high stakes excluded) - 5nl here is comparable to 25nl/50nl on most other sites.

I get that raising flop with this specific hand might actually be slightly more +EV than calling when accounting for later streets (even though it's virtually impossible to quantify), but I still don't see a good reason for even having a raising range here.

To be fair, your subjective experience (if actually true) doesn't really mean that the possibility can be discounted entirely.