Folding turn to tight?


PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 137.2 BB (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
SB: 88.6 BB
BB: 323 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 27)
Hero (UTG): 153.8 BB
MP: 162.2 BB (VPIP: 15.15, PFR: 12.12, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
CO: 123 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A A

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) J 6 7
Hero bets 4 BB, BTN raises to 15.2 BB, Hero calls 11.2 BB

Turn: (37.8 BB, 2 players) T
Hero checks, BTN bets 27.2 BB, Hero calls 27.2 BB

River: (92.2 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, BTN checks

I wouldn’t fold turn, but I’d consider folding river if he bets. But u don’t have the A spade which is good. Knowing me I prob call river too.

Dont fold AA w/o spade otr.

Don't fold the turn. There's a lot of draws and AJ, KJ, QJ type hands that can take the same line.

I really do think it is a common line for those hands.

Your line is fine. I'd probably go bigger on the flop but once you get raised you have to go into showdown mode. You can't fold the turn. You could maybe fold the river to a big bet but you're folding too much if you let go of this hand on the turn.

I'd call this Turn.. he can barrel with NutFDs QJ+... if he bet this river i would call/fold depending on the betsize.. if the flush completed i would fold...

I'd just 3bet jam flop, by flatting you essentially give him two free cards to hit any number of draws. If you're planning to call down blank run outs you're getting stacked by his sets anyway so I'd prefer to make villain call with his draws rather than hand the initiative over and let him hit them

AP call turn but not that happy about it, planning to call blank river

Disagree with shoving flop.
His x/r range is something like : {77-66,76s,KsQs,AsJs,KsJs,QsJs,AsTs,JsTs,Js9s,Ts9s,9s8 s,5s4s,9d8s,9h8s,9s8d,9s8h,9s8c,9c8s,5d4s,5h4s,5s4 d,5s4h,5s4c,5c4s}

I estimate we have about 33% equity vs his calling range which I put at {77-66,76s,KsQs,AsJs,KsJs,QsJs,JsTs,Js9s,Ts9s,9s8s,5s4 s}.

According the the FE calculator on redchippoker we need V to fold 57% of the time for a shove to be profitable and we simply don't have that if my ranges are reasonable.

Looking at ranges now I think we should x/f turn. 89 and JT get there. Some of his Jx and Tx that might have check raised the flop might not barrel turn with SDV and a lot of his spade hands take a free card here.

In the moment I probably don't fold aces to two bets either.

"two free cards"...you mean that turn card that he's paying 15bbs for? That strategy that I quoted is quite bad .

Well, he's already paid the 15bb so free from then on. I'm essentially just trying to deny equity to the plethora of draws villain has. This is NL5, he can have a lot of bad draws, top pair etc.


And i disagree with the x/r ranges and the calling ranges above, I think they're much wider at NL5.

I basically gave V all the FDs that make sense. Saying "I disagree" doesn't add anything meaningful to the conversation. What ranges do think are there and have you done the math to prove that shoving is profitable?

Oh Idk, any suited spades combo that isn't completely awful...seriously thinggs like K7, any Ax combo, J7, QT etc. People were that bad at NL10 when I played it and this is NL5

I don't disagree too much with the bolded. That doesn't mean we should 3-bet the flop.

BQD, people aren't that aggressive with draws or tp at nl5. Of course you'll find some that are, but the overwhelming majority of the player pool is passive.

It doesn't take a fish playing J7o and K7o 21 hands to get their VPIP to stupid numbers. V's VPIP is <20%. I think it's pretty unreasonable to assume a player who is mostly unknown but looking slightly passive is going to x/r bottom pair or have a bunch of random garbage. You can add QTs to his x/r range, it doesn't change the FE calc enough to make shoving profitable.

I meant all spade combos...Ks7s etc. I've seen it first hand - even with stuff like Ks2s...Qs8s, Ts5s etc. Maybe it differs by network? I'm talking about my experience on Pacific where people are aggro/bad. I honestly think there are a lot more combos than your original x/r range, like a fair few more not one or two.

Maybe its a network thing like you said. For me the regs play draws more aggressively but don't show up here with K2s. The fish play their draws more passively but can show up with K2s.