5NL - Trips vs rec, value bet river ? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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5NL - Trips vs rec, value bet river ?

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06-16-2018 , 05:34 AM

Mr. Waldo

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 52

Do we bet river and how much ?
His line got me pretty confused. Villain is obviously a rec but he was not overaggressive.

Stacks:
UTG (100BB)
CO (120.6BB) VPIP: 48, PFR: 14, 3B: 0, AF: 3,4, Hands: 123
BTN Hero (124.4BB)
SB (156BB)
BB (101.2BB) VPIP: 40, PFR: 22, 3B: 4, AF: 1,6, Hands: 83

Pre-Flop: (1.4BB, 5 players) Hero is BTN Q

1 fold, CO calls 1BB, Hero raises to 4BB, 1 fold, BB calls 3BB, CO calls 3BB

Flop: J

(12.4BB, 3 players)
BB checks, CO bets 6.2BB, Hero calls 6.2BB, BB raises to 19BB, CO folds, Hero calls 12.8BB

Turn: 3

(56.6BB, 2)
BB bets 20.8BB, Hero calls 20.8BB

River: 6

(98.2BB, 2)
BB checks, Hero ?

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06-16-2018 , 09:40 AM

sossinbergs

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 519

Yes I think you should jam here. I seriously doubt the BB ever checks a better hand on the river.

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06-16-2018 , 10:06 AM

Oregon Rick

adept

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 770

I would also jam here.

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06-16-2018 , 12:55 PM

spitzgoby

newbie

Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 25

Yeah I think it’s a pretty good spot to jam. It seems really unlikely VIL has a boat, AJ or KJ. You might get a cry call from 88-TT, some 7s, or QQ that VIL decided to slowplay

I’m pretty new to thinking about GTO ranges though, so I’d be interested in hearing what people think would be our bluffs on this river and where QJ falls in our value range

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06-16-2018 , 04:25 PM

Flpmethntsdlr

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 3,918

Ship the nickels.

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06-16-2018 , 04:57 PM

coolshadow

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 132

if we jam here we will get call than worse? I can not see anything worse in this line of the villain

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06-16-2018 , 05:30 PM

notsog

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 33

I vote check

he wasnt bluffing the flop. he thinks he is ahead, nothing else improves after that to scare him.

he thinks abc makes his monster too obvious

hes just trying to induce a bet , rather than scare you off.

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06-17-2018 , 09:28 AM

Mr. Waldo

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 52

Quote:

Originally Posted by coolshadow

if we jam here we will get call than worse? I can not see anything worse in this line of the villain

That was my thinking during the hand. I thought he had worst hands, but not many he'd call with. A decent player's range by the river would be strongly polarized and I think we should not bet.
Afterward, we're facing a fish who's probably capable of taking that line with worst Jx or 88-TT or 7x, so I guess a shove is ok.

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06-17-2018 , 10:37 AM

dynamite2006

adept

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 789

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Waldo

A decent player's range by the river would be strongly polarized

If a decent player shows up to the river with a strongly polarized range in this spot then he would be betting it not checking. He'll either have garbage that wants to push you off your better hand or he'll have the effective nuts and be looking to get value from your worse hand.

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06-17-2018 , 11:54 AM

#10

Bladesman87

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 14,543

Likely having the best hand doesn't always mean bet. You need him to call with worse. Let's say his likely bluffs are 89/9T that are giving up. What's the range you range him to call you off with?

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06-17-2018 , 12:00 PM

#11

sossinbergs

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 519

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bladesman87

Likely having the best hand doesn't always mean bet. You need him to call with worse. Let's say his likely bluffs are 89/9T that are giving up. What's the range you range him to call you off with?

A hand like 99 or TT or a random 7x that decided to raise flop and bet turn to "protect their hand". Maybe even a hand like J8 or J9 that got scared on the river for whatever reason. The line V took doesn't really make sense with any hand so I don't we can put them on rational ranges in this spot, or assume they will call with rational hands here.

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06-17-2018 , 12:24 PM

#12

Bladesman87

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 14,543

So 99/TT that didn't squeeze pre and weirdly raised flop, bet turn, and now check/calls river? Seems a stretch. Same for 7x raising flop and calling off now.

J8-JT is plausible but it's not many combos. You also should give him some traps if we're considering weird lines, so some KJ maybe.

Players are bad at 5nl, so yeah, it's hard to hate jamming that much, but I think it's super close.

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06-17-2018 , 12:39 PM

#13

sossinbergs

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 519

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bladesman87

Ya I agree, the point I was trying to make was this player is obviously bad so we shouldn't expect them to show up with reasonable hands on this river.

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