PartyPoker fast forward

I only have a few hands on villain from this session, the rest is a month old.
I haven't been involved in a hand with him yet this session.

I feel like I have to value bet the river. He insta-shoves on me and I'm feeling queasy.

partypoker - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 337.6 BB (VPIP: 43.48, PFR: 34.78, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 47)
SB: 131.6 BB (VPIP: 27.64, PFR: 23.77, 3Bet Preflop: 8.77, Hands: 126)
BB: 109.4 BB (VPIP: 23.33, PFR: 21.11, 3Bet Preflop: 11.43, Hands: 95)
Hero (UTG): 166 BB
MP: 98 BB (VPIP: 14.62, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 175)
CO: 59 BB (VPIP: 21.21, PFR: 21.21, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 33)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J A

Hero raises to 2.8 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 2.8 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) 7 4 J
Hero bets 4 BB, BTN calls 4 BB

Turn: (15 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero bets 10 BB, BTN calls 10 BB

River: (35 BB, 2 players) J
Hero bets 22.8 BB, BTN raises to 320.8 BB and is all-in, ?

Fold.

It's going to be 77 pretty often. Some straights too. Then like QTs for natural bluffs. Given the timing tell as well, he needs to have done something in those other 46 hands to convince me he can turn up with worse. Maybe you can make your excuses about your range and call it off, but I'd fold.

Playing devils advocate- looking at villains stats. His pf flatting range is going to include JT, QJ, KJ, J9s. It’s pretty sick when he jams these. anyone tight is going to have us beat virtually all of the time which means we fold prob. Idk, bet folding here sucks vs this guy

Taking his stats at face value, sure, he's too loose but he also has a small VPIP/PFR gap relative to that, it's 47 hands, and he has a big stack. Maybe it's just me being daft but I'm inclined to worry about these guys turning out to be the tougher regs than the boring 23/21 guy.

That's why I'd look to any showdowns we might have seen that give us something about his range. It can take a long time to figure out how good someone is when one hand can tell you how bad they are.

pretty clear x/c turn imo, esp for this size

ap I'm mainly looking to bet my boats and straights and x/c trips otr, including AJ

I think river sizing makes little sense, would rather go big polarized or small for thin value with AJ type of hands

After a short deliberation (no timebank on party) I folded.

After the hand I was pondering if I should've called. His preflop stats looked loose and I was - until the river - representing an overpair. Could he really be shoving a worse jack here…



I sized the river bet to about 2/3 pot as value bet that would get called a decent amount of the time. I hindsight I should probably have checked and called a reasonable bet. I'm not sure I like a bigger bet with that much money behind.