Just wondering thoughts in this situation. Villain is an aggro reg and has a cbet flop of 80 and turn of 100 over 162 hands. Should I be giving up when someone this aggressive bets the river or is turning my pocket pair into a bluff catcher profitable against someone who has a good amount of air in their range on this board?


Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 192 BB (VPIP: 32.47, PFR: 24.23, 3Bet Preflop: 5.71, Hands: 198)
CO: 91.6 BB (VPIP: 25.95, PFR: 20.89, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 162)
Hero (BTN): 102.4 BB
SB: 87.8 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
BB: 126.8 BB (VPIP: 22.06, PFR: 19.12, 3Bet Preflop: 10.34, Hands: 73)
UTG: 105.8 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T T

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, CO raises to 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (10.4 BB, 2 players) 9 4 Q
CO bets 7 BB, Hero calls 7 BB

Turn: (24.4 BB, 2 players) 6
CO bets 13 BB, Hero calls 13 BB

River: (50.4 BB, 2 players) 6
CO bets 67.6 BB and is all-in, Hero ?

Well, you beat JT. I mean you hold two tens but you do beat JT.

Those stats mean dick. His turn barrel isn't 100%. He may have only had the opportunity to barrel 1 or 2 turns in all of those hands

I suppose my thinking was that the shove was too big to be for value, but I suppose that at 5NL it happens all the time. Looking at it now it is pretty strong for him to be triple barreling with not many missed draws in his range.

Fold turn

I'm a bit of a nit so maybe I'm just afraid of the boogeyman here but I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 6.

His turn bet doesn't look like he's trying to set up for a river shove.
Bet 55% of the pot on the turn, and like 130% on the river? If he did want to triple barrel shove, betting 75-80% on the turn allows him to bet 90% on the river.

So I wouldn't be surprised if he had some suited connectors and rivered trips. Or maybe he's just spewing/pressing buttons when he wants to push people around, but I'm hesitant to play for stacks against aggro players with a medium strength hand and only justify it with "they're barreling a lot".

Even without a 6, I think you're beat anyway.
I wouldn't call that unless I really knows something about the player/have seen him do something like that with air. And a lot.

Because as .isolated pointed out, there's not much air here, unless he literally triple barrels every hand everytime.

Add that to the fact that the overbet doesn't give you good pot odds.
You need to win this >37% to break even.
By giving him a value range (top pairs, sets, trips), and JTos busted draw, you have 12%. What else do you think he can do that with?
I get to 40% by giving him AKos and AJos...
But without a read I won't assume villain triple barrel spew with all these hands.

The more I look at it the more it is hard to see much air in his range at this point. Fwiw he rivered a 6, so you were spot on.


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3bet pre

You're blocking his bluffs. Fold. There are better hands to bluffcatch w/