Hero (BB): $52.30 (104.6 bb)
CO: $50.25 (100.5 bb)
MP: $38.20 (76.4 bb)
UTG: $166.32 (332.6 bb)
SB: $56.73 (113.5 bb) [VPIP: 23, PFR: 17, 3B: 12, AF: 1,6, Hands: 164]
BTN: $50 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A A
4 folds, SB raises to $1.25, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $2.75

Flop: ($8) 8 J 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.02, SB raises to $12.40, Hero calls $8.38

Turn: ($32.80) 2 (2 players)
SB bets $15.08, Hero ??

Obviously good flop for his range with 88, 77, 87s, T9s.

In retrospect I don't see him having so many bluffs in this spot. If he checkraised a gutshot like Q9s+ and QTs+ on the flop, would he really follow up with the 2nd barrel on that turn unless its clubs?

What do you think?

I'm getting it in here.
What range are you giving him by flatting your 3b pre?
Unless he has JJ....

Well... as mentioned I think at least these big valuehands are in his range:
88, 77, 87s, T9s.
JJ i probably too strong, and should be 4-bet preflop for allinvalue.

Other than the bluffrange I mentioned like Q9s+ and QTs+, maybe he can do it also with some lowpair+gutter hands like 97s...
Its difficult to say how big his check-raise bluffrange is on that turn (that's why im posting the hand). I think it could be very small, maybe only Qc9c+ QcTc+.
On the other hand, one should always look to be balanced on any board, but I doubt most people are on this turn. Seems valueheavy.

Can we fold?

Edit: A little bad notation on my part. What I mean here is: Qc9c, Kc9c, Ac9c, QcTc, KcTc, AcTc

If we simplify the turn to him putting us allin, direct odds of calling is 1.91:1 or about 34%. (Need to call 35,90 into a 68,70 pot).

So I did some range investigation in Flopzilla. If we set Villains range to
valuehands[88, 77, 87s, T9s] and bluffhands[Qc9c, Kc9c, Ac9c, QcTc, KcTc, AcTc] we only have about 28% equity.

Adding 97s we are up to about 34%. Without 97s, but adding AJs we have about 31%, and adding also AJo we have about 44% equity. Adding JJ gives us about 4% less equity.

Thit is not taking into account other possible bluffs. Guess we have little bit of fold equity as well. Seems like jamming here is not that bad after all....

He has so many value combos on the flop IMO. only see him bluffing with 9x or backdoor clubs. From a balance persective we probably have to defend flop and turn but I really don't mind overfolding the flop with no reads.

fold flop is fine vs passive players

Maybe se should just check the flop.Board is so good for him and so bad for us,he has all nut combos and we have close to 0.
Imo we should fold this hand at some point.Obv he is value betting only hands that are better then AA and we dont block any of them,but we block Axd which is kind of hand that he could use as a bluff.

His preflop calling range is pretty much centered around this flop. Even if we have a wide 3bet against a SB open, which we should, he still has way more value than us here. I check this flop with everything but my strongest hands. AA is not one of them.

Thanks guys, appreciate your replies.
I discussed with my live poker buddies as well, and I am convinced that checkback flop should be the default play here.

In the hand I ended up tank-jamming turn and got called by 8c7c.

Much prefer to bet flop and play for stack on most runouts. Yes villain has 2pair, set and straight combos but more frequently has 1pair, 2overs and gutshot etc.
In a single raised pot I would fold flop but in 3bet pot blind v blind possibly jam flop, or jam turn.

Think about how many better hands you have than AA.

Then think about how many hands you’re 3betting with.

What % are you folding if you fold AA?

I’ve been working a lot on spots like this because it’s not so black and white as to what to do.

My best guess is that it’s a mixed strategy of bets and checks but mostly checks. Once raised, call or shove. If you don’t think he ever bluffs here then just check back flop or bet fold or bet call and fold turn. I think if a reg is capable of raising gutshots/ blockers here, you’re just going to have to call the turn at least and probably have to call some rivers too.

Looking at your entire range here, I think you’d be getting away with only betting 15-20% anyways: TPTK, two pairs, straights and sets (the straights and sets check back sometimes). You can mix in some BDBD and straight blockers as bluffs.

Once you do this, AA becomes a credible bluff catcher to a turn probe and a river bet.

Don’t take my word for it though, I haven’t run this spot exactly- just ones which are similar.