Ignition - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 120.84 BB
SB: 113.46 BB
BB: 133.96 BB
Hero (UTG): 102 BB
MP: 113.2 BB
CO: 313.46 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K J

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, CO calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) Q 2 6
Hero checks, CO bets 4.64 BB, Hero raises to 14.38 BB, CO calls 9.74 BB

Turn: (35.26 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero bets 19.76 BB, CO calls 19.76 BB

River: (74.78 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero bets 65.36 BB and is all-in

I am only a few weeks into range checking flops vs. cold-callers when OOP, so I still have a lot to learn in these spots. In real time, I felt like my line was scary enough to possibly fold out some Qx on the river. On the other hand, I am probably way overbluffing if I take this line with all of my flush draws. But maybe that is okay? Thanks for any help!

I think the key here is how you expect villain to play KQs/KQo/QJs. If you expect those to be decent frequency calls pre (and AQ to be more weighted towards 3betting than those), and for villain to call you down with those that include a heart, then I think you have a pretty decent candidate to fire a third barrel, blocking as large a portion of villain's calling range as possible (whilst also being pretty good candidate to fire the X/r on flop and second barrel). If you expect villain to fold some weaker Q (e.g. QTs/Q9s, although I'm not sure how often Q9s should call pre), same as above. If you expect villain might fold QJs or a better Q, then it wouldn't be a great bluff.

You block KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, JhTh, Kh9h, which is up to 5 combos that villain will fold. But let's say 2.5 combos, as we would not expect those to be pure calls pre. You also block QhJh, KhQh, KhQs, KhQc, which is up to 4 combos, but again, not all of those will take this line pre. So I'd say the blockers are relatively neutral, and are better than the majority of FD you can have (maybe JTs might be better). If you're not getting to the river with enough good bluffs to balance your value hands (which I imagine would be a decent portion of KK+, AQ, maybe KQ, and sets), I think this will be one of your better candidates to fire a third barrel. My guess is that you won't have that many good river bluffs, as they wouldn't be good bluffs otf or ott, and this is one of your better FD to bluff, so it's probably a good third barrel. Might not be, dependent on what you're firing flop and turn with.

I'd think you'd want to use some of your weaker draws to check raise semi-bluff the flop. If you're into range checking then I'd say go for a check call. Or just c bet the flop considering you have an overcard and second NFD.

Just bet flop. This line is okay too but there's more margin for error.

Turn sizing needs to be bigger - you can't bet middling sizing when you are repping this strong of a range.

I would just check turn though. You didn't pick up any equity.

As played - do not bluff river.

Is the equity from the FD not enough to continue barreling against what is likely a capped range?

People over fold to check-raises since people under XR. We have a hand we want our opponent to have.

So if I didn't pick up some sort of gutshot/oesd to go with my FD. I'm just shutting down as it is likely my turn bet will be called a high % of the time.

I'd probably only barrel an Ace as a bluff and then check the rest.

I also don't know how capped people are here. IP ranges 3bet far less often.

I don't even have a 3bet range here - I think people are getting better at just calling their monsters IP and not making it easy on the opponent.

Also he just called in the CO which gives us 1 data point of him being a weaker player. That again would make me bluff less OTT/OTR

One more thing to note is his stab sizing is 75%. That indicates strength. So if you combine that with his calling of the XR + we block FDs. It gets increasingly less likely he is folding OTT. He is going to have AQo here a lot OTR

Doesn't this highly depend on the opponents behind you though as to if it was a weaker player or not? If you have weak/passive type regs or loose passive fish behind you, wouldn't calling be better to keep those players in, especially if they are in the blinds?

I like the x/r but as DooDoo said once called they are weighted much more towards unfoldable hands after brickish turn/river. And the real trouble with taking any theoretically balanced barreling line in these OOP spots is that CO's (fishy) calling range is really one of about three different ranges, depending on how tight/loose they are.

So.. impossible to quantify how many Qx in CO's range. Or how much FE we have. And if we were to solve this spot we would need to do at least three solves, (before even looking at n-locking), and my brain has already exploded tbh

Simple logic: blocking FDs AND KQ, QJ makes this a bad combo to fire off

In a live poker setting this train of thought is a lot more relevant.

Everyone has a full stack here and you are on ignition which doesn't have long term HUD stats (only for the session) so unless you see multiple showdowns you aren't going to know any of these things.

You also are playing fast fold games which tend to have better players than reg tables.

OK I didn't realize it was one of those types of tables. To me it's largely dependent on the opponents behind you whether it's better to flat or 3 bet. At small stakes online you still see a lot of loose passive players who are good to have in the pot with position on so calling is better.

Pjj, thank you for the excellent analysis. I am glad someone thinks I didn't totally butcher this!

0NoobiePoker0, I was thinking that this hand was a good bluff candidate since I block some KQ and QJ. But that probably doesn't make a ton of sense when I bluff the river, since that means I block the hands I want him to fold. So I supposed my blockers were a good thing on the flop, but a bad thing on the river.

DooDooPoker, I agree that the 3/4 flop bet and the likelihood that this guy is a rec make this line a lot less attractive. I am much more likely to get stationed by the hands I am trying to bluff. Playing around with the solver, it seems to really like your idea of checking the turn. It then actually folds to a decent sized turn bet which would not have occurred to me. If I find myself in a similar spot in the future, I will probably take this line. Oh, and I was trying to set up a huge river shove with my turn sizing since I thought most of my folds would come on the river. I am not sure if that is sound logic though.

Ceres, I feel like a rec player range is most likely lol. I could end up getting myself stationed by the A hi flush draw if I am not more careful. I was going through a long streak of people just folding everything to me when I took this line, so I was like "Omg, I look so scary!". That is non-logic.

So I got stationed on the flop and turn by 9c9d and villain spiked a set on the river lol. So I will never know if the third barrel would have worked on a more friendly card. I feel like there is almost no chance this guy would have ever folded a Q given how much he loved his 99. I think the biggest mistake I made was trying to bluff a possible rec who bet big on the flop. The flop c/r was probably okay, but trying to push this player off a Q with continued barrels was pretty spewy imo. If I had to do it over again, I would probably check the turn and fold to a reasonably sized bet. Thanks for the help everyone!

Calling flop and turn with underpair is super std for villain, just accept that this 9 is bad for your range, on neutral for villain 8 he have to call those 99 some of the time too, and heartless Q is never folding river, but IMO your play is ok, you have to bluff sometimes even if everything missed, unless your pool is huge and/or volume low and you can go pure exploit mode in spot you dont expect villain to fold much (this is such spot), another issue with checkingh is that he can turn worse FD into bluff on river if you check, and he can actully fold something like 7hxh, he fold his NFD's too.