Villain is 31/21/0 over 53 hands. I have the following notes on him:
-Called 2bet from blinds with K6s
-Called 3bets in position with 98o
-Plays turn aggressively

From the short time i have spent with villain, he seems to have a wide calling range and finds it difficult to fold to a 3bet once invested in a pot.



My thoughts on the hand.

- Pre flop it's close between calling/3betting IMO. As stated, villain has a pretty wide calling range however i had not previously noticed what he was opening with so i elected to call for this reason.

- In hindsight i think i should of raised his flop bet. A tonne of Ax hand are calling, all of which are heavily in villains range. As played i called looking to ship the turn what ever the card (Note on villain of playing aggressively on the turn).

- I could of raised more on the turn however i did not expect villain to call my bet. I was expecting a fold or reraise so it threw me off slightly. At this point i continue to put villain on Ax.

- As played, i have set myself up to shove the river. No way i am checking the river back on such a board that has a tonne of weaker hands that will more often than not call to make this profitable.

Interested to hear your opinions on my line. Feel free to criticise!

Fine for me, wp. I wouldn't raise flop, he board is very dry and he's heavily weighted towards strong Aces and premiums and knows you know that. If you raise here you just telegraph 2p +. Turn and river both good, villain played the hand badly and got lucky. I'd take a note and try and play against him in the future - you wqnt these guys at your table.

I prefer a call pre too. Whether to 3-bet also depends a lot on the 4 other players, especially CO and BTN since they have position on you.

On the flop I think both calling and raising are an option. Against an aggressive player I'd prefer a call to let him barrel his bluffs.

Turn raise is ok.

River should be good. If you were to only check or shove I imagine TT would become a check. But if you bet smaller he should call some hands you dominate.

What mistakes did villain make? I thought he played it fine.

Is it the pre and flop sizing?

Villain probably shouldn't be opening J9s UTG but I guess that's all a matter of their style and I think other than that they played the hand well.

I think Hero played well also, although maybe go a bit smaller on the river? I could be being results oriented though.

yes raising J9s utg can be +ev although it's kinda rare

Me likey. WP.

Opening pre is bad, flop is OK-ish, calling turn raise is awful.

I like open pre with fishy player in BB, would fold if population 3bets a lot. His sizing is questionable though.
Calling turn raise should be profitable because of implied odds. 7 heart outs (intentionally excluding Th 7h) and 3 GS outs. I expect to get shoved on all of those and only be beat by KhQh. I'm assuming the raising range is ATs,TT,77,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh

Played around with ranges and this should still be profitable if you take away ATs as long as MP always shoves river on our 10 outs.

He isn't getting the direct pot odds to make the call anyway, but also, when we raise turn he should give us a fair number of FDs ourself. Plenty Kx and Qx suited are flatting his open. So his hand suffers heavily from reverse implieds odds as well as not having the direct pot odds. He's also OOP no guarantee to stack us when he hits, even if he is good when he does.

Do you think average MP flats K8s,Q8s vs UTG open?
My argument falls apart if MP does not shove sets on our outs so that part is what makes or breaks the turn call.

I'd say KQs, KTs, QTs.

But the main point is that he isn't getting the direct pot odds and often won't stack us when he hits. For me turn is a clear -EV call by him.

Also the open is just about OK, I misread it as J7s at first

With 10 outs and your opponent check raising the turn,that coupled with the fact that you're getting more than 3:1 you really don't think villain had the implied odds to continue?

Implied odds means that villain can make a worse than pot odds call because the chances of him winning a stack make it profitable. IP with the NFD then yes maybe. But here he has reverse implied odds. Some % of the time he will get stacked himself, and some % of the time the river will go x/x. If the river goes x/x here villain's call was unprofitable.

Based on the range villain should be assigning hero, I don't think this call is profitable.

Turn call by villain is basically break even vs 77 TT if my maths is correct villain has 23% equity with the gutshot and fd. Plus the implied odds , we have very few flush draws i think our hand is usually going to be TT 77 and ATs. I think villains call is ok.

I said based on 10 outs. I was implying that he would fold on a 7h or 10h. That being said what is your opponent check raising such a small sizing on the turn that is not giving you the implied odds to make the call? Getting about 3.2:1 on a call even if you only stack your opponent 1/5 times it's going to be profitable.

Folding turn

Don't fully you if I'm honest. It's hard to calculate implied odds and reversed implied odds, but the fact that villain has both here makes me want to disregard those concepts really and just use the pot odds calculation, as he may stack us 1/5 but he may also get stacked 1/5 too. Villain is about 20% to hit and needs 25%, by my maths.

Ok then lets just disregard the fact that villain is eliminating his reversed implied odds and pretend he has no implied odds himself what so ever. I think you need to redefine your thought process.

It might take some time but it's not difficult. x% of the time we win this, x% of the time we lose that a few times and then using the % that each happens and then a final equation to put those answers all together for the final answer.

I'm a reasonably intelligent person but I just don't follow you a lot of the time. Sorry

Then your not following your own thought process. Sorry.

Yea, would also need to have reasonable ranges and opponent tendencies, which are obviously never going to be exact. If you care to do it for this hand go ahead. I'd be surprised if it turned out to be a profitable turn call though.