50nl -- River Bluff Jam? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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50nl -- River Bluff Jam?

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10-20-2017 , 02:37 PM

Jimbo123

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 81

iPoker - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 222.22 BB
BTN: 311.8 BB (VPIP: 52.17, PFR: 30.43, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 24)
SB: 143.58 BB
Hero (BB): 105.3 BB
UTG: 117.26 BB
MP: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.62 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.62 BB

Flop: (5.74 BB, 2 players) K

Hero checks, BTN bets 2.72 BB, Hero calls 2.72 BB

Turn: (11.18 BB, 2 players) 4

Hero checks, BTN bets 6.8 BB, Hero calls 6.8 BB

River: (24.78 BB, 2 players) A

Hero checks, BTN bets 13 BB, Hero raises to 93.16 BB, fold

Spoiler:

My thoughts:

Spoiler:

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10-20-2017 , 05:49 PM

Brussels Sprout

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 1,783

What do you think villain folded that was better than your hand?

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10-20-2017 , 05:52 PM

.isolated

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 21,495

Well it worked, it must be good.

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10-20-2017 , 08:30 PM

Mohsen

adept

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 773

You ain't repping much to be honest with you...
You are polarizing your range to air or slow played setts and bd fds.
Are you x/shoving 2pair here? If yes, what 2 pair?
What do you expect him to fold?
He is not capped, he has all the setts and you only have a couple..
You are specifically targeting KJ and KQ here.. Because I don't think even AK here folds a lot....

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10-20-2017 , 08:32 PM

Mohsen

adept

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 773

Btw, I've seen you use a lot of overbetting in your strategy lately at the tables...
They are working most of the time but be careful not to get too carried away...
A lot of pple at 25NL and 50NL in chico would not understand the meaning of an overbet...

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10-20-2017 , 08:41 PM

JamesBJames

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 5,791

Pretty much what Mohsen said, although I'll be even more pessimistic and say that you're not targeting much of anything because KQ / KJ shouldn't bet river. Are you trying to get villain to fold AK / sets?

But I mean, even if he does, he still has so many more flushes than we do. It seems pretty reasonable for him to double-barrel any two diamonds on this run-out with range advantage / positional advantage, so like Mohsen mentioned his range is uncapped.

I'm gonna look at the math a little more later tonight, but I'm guessing that even if he folds two pairs / sets, this is still -EV because we just get destroyed by the flushes.

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10-20-2017 , 09:25 PM

Sergiu2408

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 36

I don't think is that bad because he has the nut flush blocker and if the opponent is competent enough he might fold a set there.

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10-21-2017 , 10:38 AM

emibg

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 167

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sergiu2408

I don't think is that bad because he has the nut flush blocker and if the opponent is competent enough he might fold a set there.

Villain is 52/30. I doubt he fold a set if hero had the flush and showed him.
As Brussels Sprout asked... OP, what are you trying to get to fold here?
Exactly KJ and KQ?
You only have 24 hands on him, and while this is enough to know that (52/30) he's a fish, it's not nearly enough to have a read on him being able to find a fold.

Trying to bluff fish is recipe for disaster. Just because it worked here doesn't mean it was right and profitable.
And you don't even know if it worked. Maybe he had k-6. Maybe he had q-2 of heart.

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10-21-2017 , 05:57 PM

Mohsen

adept

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 773

^^
That is my thinking as well.
I don't think he folded anything that had you beat here!

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