Red Line continues to plummet.

27/17/2.7Aggr opens UTG. WWSF 25, WTSD 38 over 2k hands.

PF: Standard call I think here, especially with the Rec in the BB. BB calls.

F: Villain 3/4 size bet, we can only call here, no reason to raise. BB folds.

T: Gives us trips, villain bets large again. If we raise, I can only see us getting called by better, the only other hand he could have is KQ. No draws here.

R: Villain overbet shoves. I think we need to make an exploitative here. I doubt he's doing this with anything less than a boat. Thoughts?

Folding seems reasonable on a rainbow board

Nh

NH. I could never fold this -- shows me how much I still have to learn.

Never folding. Effective stack is about pot on the river so not a crazy overbet and therefore villain could definitely have KQ in his range. You don’t block the most obvious bluffs, you’re pretty much at the top of your range, just gotta pay this one off.

^ what are the obvious bluffs?

KT. If he only plays boats and KT this way call is close to break even. I suspect that in reality he has a wider range of bluffs and value (some of which you beat) which makes it an easy call.

This kind of thinking shows you have much to learn.

I think this is pretty much must call.

If he has boat I think he would have made pot size bet on turn to make pot bigger when going to last street.

ATs and ATo (if V has it) are also very likely bluffs from V, and I agree that KQ is very much in V's range. I'm calling.

That's what I said.

Yeah you cant fold here he hasnt 2x potted the river he can have QTs maybe even Q9s KQ possibly KT, youre getting an ok price with close to the top of your range, if you fold here you are going to get run over by people his line does look strong but he can definitely have a worse hand

WWSF 25. 27/17. Wtsd 44
He rly can overplay here.
Key-info is how many agr he have on post flop. Now he seems like fish and rly can be on tilt. He think, with two pairs on the flop you will raise for protect from some draws. He put you Qx without j, AJ. But also he can got qj or jj and think, that if you pay 20, you also pay 80.

I don't know how you seems here.

Are you seems like some who can pay here, or who can fold?

In the next time I'll recommend you play more agr and did raise him.

In the end I think you need call here. I think he plays with beer and rdy to showing.

Then you calling here, you can looks like you have a nuts 10% and some, that you will fold on 3 barrel with overbet in 90%.

Raise next time, if you don't w8ting many bets, and you got some info

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With no information on the player, I ran UTG's possible range pre TT+ AQs AKs AKo KQs (which is a standard tight range) When the flop comes Q 8 Jr you have roughly 52% equity against his range of hands in this spot. him leading with a 2/3 pot bet narrows the hand range to KK,AA,JJ,AK,AQ,possibly QQ (you block QQ) Facing this bet sizing you have 46% equity against his bluffs and value range. Qd comes You have 74% equity against his hand range AA,KK,JJ,AQ,KQ. Definitely have to pay this one off. I can't see the hand while I am writing this but I am thinking you only have to be right 20% to make money.

What is your history and profile? Was he tight? Super Aggro? That would determine your next step of action. If a NIT is preflop open raising and 2/3 pot betting here. on a Q high board he almost always has AA,KK,JJ,AQ which means you have 25% equity in the hand. So folding the flop is best, because you never want to pay a NIT. However if the player has a wider raising range then you have to pay him off on the River! Tell me if this helps you? I would like to know others opinion on my thoughts of this hand.

His turn betting range likely doesnt include AA KK TT if it does then thats not included in this river betting range so you cant just lob a bunch of random hands in equilab and say this is his range... His range is more likely to be QTs QJs KQ AQ JJ 88 KT maybe 9Ts

Board: JhQs8cQd7d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 54.35% 47.83% 6.52% { QQ-JJ, 88, AQs, KQs, KTs, QTs+, T9s, AQo, KQo }
BU 45.65% 39.13% 6.52% { AhQh }

Could be pot odds call but I would remove the QTs combo and 2 of KTs on the assumption that people dont tend to bluff that much or stack QTs and we are still 37%, but splits sometimes so rake consider... (Otoh people can fire off AK etc, so w/e)
fairly close decision either way so still happy with a fold

i dissagree about QTs where would you check QTs on the turn when you turn trips or the river at 1 spr? i do however somewhat agree about KT its certainly not a good spot to just barrell off with KT or maybe it is if you fold everything other than a boat which is what youre doing if you are happy to fold TOP trips here.. if you 3bet JJ pre and only call QJs then youre only calling 5 combos of hands lol clear river call imo if he shows you a boat gg cant be scared money here with top trips

^ JJ can be a flat pre and QQ sometimes, we have 9Ts sometimes also I assume. So depends on our preflop flatting range how much we have to defend the river I guess. If hero calls down I am not going to say bad call obv but don't see that this has to be a call either. Leaning towards call now though lol.

After the flop goes three ways, how often are people barreling off on that turn with bluffs in UTG's shoes?

It might be a close spot in terms of how high in our range we are, but I find it really hard to hate folding.

I think QTs is a flop check and really shouldn't jam river. Plus it's only one combo.

As for likely bluff combos ATs should also be in there, but it just looks like a suicidal spot for bluffing so I don't expect to see many of them.

Fold flop for this sizing. He bets big into 2 people

THANK YOU!

Thanks!

i believe this is a spot underbluffed a lot even by aggro players so we dont really have to bluff catch

Call. We beat KQo, also I’ve spazzed out with AK before on boards like these knowing I block AQ,KQ to try to get people to fold trips. And let’s see what better hands we can have.

4 combos T9s
3 combos of 88
3 combos of JJ but sometimes you 3bet PF
1 combo of QJcc
Then our combo of AQs

Sorry can’t fold it