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NL Holdem $0.50(BB)
HERO ($86.28) [VPIP: 24.7% | PFR: 21.5% | AGG: 34.1% | Flop Agg: 40% | Turn Agg: 27.3% | River Agg: 31% | 3-Bet: 10.9% | Fold to 3-Bet: 54% | 4-Bet: 16.6% | Hands: 244157]
SB ($193.29) [VPIP: 11.9% | PFR: 9.3% | AGG: 40% | Flop Agg: 28.6% | Turn Agg: 28.6% | River Agg: 66.7% | 3-Bet: 4.1% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 121]
BB ($95.76) [VPIP: 18.6% | PFR: 15.6% | AGG: 27.6% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 22.6% | River Agg: 21.7% | 3-Bet: 2.8% | 4-Bet: 7.7% | Hands: 412]
UTG ($80.83) [VPIP: 31.3% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 12.5% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 25% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 16]
HJ ($50.00) [VPIP: 18.8% | PFR: 18.8% | AGG: 33.3% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 50% | 3-Bet: 14.3% | 4-Bet: 100% | Fold to 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 17]
CO ($60.25) [VPIP: 18.2% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 50% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 12]

Dealt to Hero: J J

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $1.25, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $3.68, SB Folds, BB Folds, HJ Raises To $10, HERO Calls $6.32

Hero SPR on Flop: [1.93 effective]
Flop ($20.75): 4 Q Q
HJ Bets $5.18 (Rem. Stack: 34.82), HERO Calls $5.18 (Rem. Stack: 71.10)

Turn ($31.11): 4 Q Q 9
HJ Checks, HERO Checks

River ($31.11): 4 Q Q 9 Q
HJ Bets $34.82 (allin), HERO ?

If I'm going to call a hand like JJ. This is the better JJ to call. We have no diamonds/no clubs.

12 hands stats are not relevant as much as how much he bought in for. 100bb.

Shitty spot. Got to remember, we also rep a strong hand.

I fold.

Call?

Zeebo theorem

I'm assuming that means you advocate a fold?

Seriously, who bluffs on this texture? Everything about their line screams AA-KK. I'm assuming you called so excited to see what villain was bluffing with.

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Yeah this is an underbluffed spot right?

Do you call TT here? I know solver snap calls with JJ but was wondering if people thought population was bluffing enough in this spot.

Sure, but its not like people have a ton of hands with which to value bet either!

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Do you think it's underbluffed because people are scared to bluff these kind of boards, or because there aren't that many good bluffs to have?

if you're curious, I was bored and looking at pop tendencies the other day

when hj opens and faces a 3b from the btn, 50nl reg pop on stars 4b 15%, flats 40%, fold 45% ,33k sample. basically identic stats in utg vs btn.
solver with 50nl rake 4b 25%, flats 9%, folds 66% at 100x, goes down to 21/20/59% at 200x in these pos
pop data is not filtered by eff stacks so there will be some deeper stacked situations as well

when hj 4b, btn flats and action goes BXB, 5/21 instances were bluffs. 3/15 in utg vs btn
obv small sample but ye line looks underbluffed

I mean folding here is absolutely nuts in theory considering hes supposed to value bet TT.

I dont understand why you guys think this is underbluffed, its pretty easy for mp to start bluffing AK/KT/KJ, etc. by the river.

almost 2/3rds of your range by the river should be <88. You're playing a dangerous game folding JJ here.

People don’t bluff it because it’s called too much.

You’re in a 4B pot how many people are calling 4B with <TT. Not many. I don’t think it’s an easy bluff you get called a lot by JJ/QQ you need people to fold despite having the blockers.

Bluffing is called too much yet you guys advocate a fold with the super top of our range???

Folding JJ here basically means we're folding range I'm pretty sure (someone who ran the sim can let us know). Our trips and AA will very much bet the turn almost always imo.

Sorry for triple post but been thinking bit more about the spot and i think river might be overbluffed by mp.

I dont even think hes supposed to bluff AK otr (feels too high in range) and hes probably supposed to only use AT,KT,KJ to support his narrow v. betting range of TT+.

Ye, snap call. I hate folding this. Looks and feels abysmal. Zeebo theorem can **** ***.

browsed through 100+ 4bp hhs this morning and you wouldn't believe how often these meh regs x turn with nutty hands both ip/oop at spr>1

my first instinct was to snap too

btw I'd snap this in game 99/100 times
that 1 I time out
was mostly saying all that stuff for your benefit DDP
there are some clear patterns to observe in 4bp since these aren't usually covered in training material and nobody at these limits knows wtf is going on

Does population really 4-bet AT, KT, KJ?

The MDA work I've done for 100z suggest they do. No idea for 50z.

In general though, they do under 4bet.

Laughing hard.
I snap call anyway.

In the current situation, you should call. I prefer to allin preflop.

Please call river and 5b ship JJ.

I think you call unless you have a read strong enough to not post this hand.

what about bet like $5 ott