[converted_hand][hand_history]Merge, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
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Hero (SB): $59.94 (119.9 bb)
BB: $40 (80 bb)
CO: $30.92 (61.8 bb)
BTN: $50.00 (100 bb)
Preflop: Hero is SB with range: 77+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,98s,ATo+,KJo+
CO folds,
BTN raises to $1.43,
Hero raises to $5,
BB folds, BTN calls $3.57
Flop: ($10.50) 7
2
9
(2 players)
This is a 3B spot sb vs bu. BB is a LAG player. BU is an unknown Reg and flats the 3b. I'm going to be working with this math equation here to balance 3 streets of betting.
17.5% on the flop (82.5% bluffs)
35% on the turn (65% bluffs)
70% on the river (30% bluffs)
from:
https://www.upswingpoker.com/analyze...nd-techniques/
Value OTF C betting range: 77-QQ,A9s,K9s,J9s,T9s,98s,AdAc,AsAc,KdKs,KdKc,KsKc,Ad As
51 combos 51/195 = (26%). 195 is how many combos we make it to the flop with.
Bluff OTF C betting range: KTs,QTs+,JTs,ATo,AhKd,AcKh,AdKh,AdKd,AhKh,AhKc,AsK h,AhQc,AhQs,AhQd,AhQh,AdQd,AhJc,AhJs,AhJd,AhJh,AdJ d,AhTh,AdTd,Ah8h,Ad8d,Ah7h,Ad7d,Ah6h,Ad6d,Ad5d,Ah5 h,Ad4d,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ad3d,Ah2h,Ad2d,KhQc,KhQd,KhQh,KdQ d,KhQs,KhJd,KhJc,KhJs,KhJh,KdJd,AhKs
70 combos (36%) = 70/195 (total flop combos)
Check Calling range: AhAs,AhAc,KdKh,KhKs,KhKc,AdAh
6 combos
For this equation we bet half pot flop and turn. By the river we expect to be all in for around 75% psb with a balanced range of bluffs to value. The article linked above explains how we get to a balanced ratio of bluffs to value from flop to river.
I will be going through each street this week to try and get as close as we can to a balanced strategy. I tried to get more bluffs OTF here than value but it may need work.
Our math here may be incorrect but according to the article we want to start from the rivers 3/4th psb we want to be value betting 70% with 30% bluffs. So, .70 (river size bet) x .5 (turn size bet) = .35 (Value hands). Then, .35 x .5 (flop size bet) = .18 (value hands).
So OTF we want 18% value, 35% value OTT and 70% value OTR? On this flop we seem to have more value than we need but I think that's OK.
Any input on this is very helpful. Thanks.