[converted_hand][hand_history]Merge, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
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Hero (SB): $59.94 (119.9 bb)
BB: $40 (80 bb)
CO: $30.92 (61.8 bb)
BTN: $50.00 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with range: 77+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,98s,ATo+,KJo+
CO folds, BTN raises to $1.43, Hero raises to $5, BB folds, BTN calls $3.57

Flop: ($10.50) 7 2 9 (2 players)

This is a 3B spot sb vs bu. BB is a LAG player. BU is an unknown Reg and flats the 3b. I'm going to be working with this math equation here to balance 3 streets of betting.
17.5% on the flop (82.5% bluffs)
35% on the turn (65% bluffs)
70% on the river (30% bluffs)
from: https://www.upswingpoker.com/analyze...nd-techniques/

Value OTF C betting range: 77-QQ,A9s,K9s,J9s,T9s,98s,AdAc,AsAc,KdKs,KdKc,KsKc,Ad As
51 combos 51/195 = (26%). 195 is how many combos we make it to the flop with.

Bluff OTF C betting range: KTs,QTs+,JTs,ATo,AhKd,AcKh,AdKh,AdKd,AhKh,AhKc,AsK h,AhQc,AhQs,AhQd,AhQh,AdQd,AhJc,AhJs,AhJd,AhJh,AdJ d,AhTh,AdTd,Ah8h,Ad8d,Ah7h,Ad7d,Ah6h,Ad6d,Ad5d,Ah5 h,Ad4d,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ad3d,Ah2h,Ad2d,KhQc,KhQd,KhQh,KdQ d,KhQs,KhJd,KhJc,KhJs,KhJh,KdJd,AhKs
70 combos (36%) = 70/195 (total flop combos)

Check Calling range: AhAs,AhAc,KdKh,KhKs,KhKc,AdAh
6 combos

For this equation we bet half pot flop and turn. By the river we expect to be all in for around 75% psb with a balanced range of bluffs to value. The article linked above explains how we get to a balanced ratio of bluffs to value from flop to river.

I will be going through each street this week to try and get as close as we can to a balanced strategy. I tried to get more bluffs OTF here than value but it may need work.

Our math here may be incorrect but according to the article we want to start from the rivers 3/4th psb we want to be value betting 70% with 30% bluffs. So, .70 (river size bet) x .5 (turn size bet) = .35 (Value hands). Then, .35 x .5 (flop size bet) = .18 (value hands).

So OTF we want 18% value, 35% value OTT and 70% value OTR? On this flop we seem to have more value than we need but I think that's OK.

Any input on this is very helpful. Thanks.

On this flop I would check a lot more of my range than you are doing. You're going to want some flush draws/9x/7x in your x/c range. Far too many check folds.

Subbed. Very nice article
Don't we first need to estimate villain range going to flop and work out our 3street vbetting range including hands with >50% equity vs his range as that is what I believe he did first. I get why we prefer to bet some 9x and check some AA but perhaps that can be done after you have worked out the basic 3 Street ranges, then if our flop checking range looks too weak on the flop we can mess about with it then.

I'll need to get my head around the numbers before I can add anything useful

Thanks, i'll be continuing this thread this up coming week.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/6.../#post53505513

better?

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/6.../#post53505513

new range added.