Villains BTN 3bet % is 14% over 1200+ hands

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.10(BB)
HJ ($19) [VPIP: 18% | PFR: 15.8% | AGG: 42.3% | 3-Bet: 9.1% | Hands: 187]
HERO ($15.40) [VPIP: 26.9% | PFR: 22.1% | AGG: 34% | 3-Bet: 10.4% | Hands: 29519]
BTN ($12.02) [VPIP: 24.4% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 25.6% | 3-Bet: 7.8% | Hands: 1248]
SB ($10.22) [VPIP: 16.7% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 32.1% | 3-Bet: 5.8% | Hands: 6240]
BB ($7.16) [VPIP: 64.7% | PFR: 5.9% | AGG: 61.1% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 18]

Dealt to Hero: K T

HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.22, BTN Raises To $0.90, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Raises To $2.50, BTN Calls $1.60

Hero SPR on Flop: [1.85 effective]
Flop ($5.15): 4 2 J
HERO Checks, BTN Checks

Turn ($5.15): 4 2 J Q
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $2.02 (Rem. Stack: 7.50), HERO Raises To $12.90 (allin)

I would just go ahead and cbet the flop board is pretty good for our range and then jam Q and diamonds turn.
ap-I m not sure what value hands we check twice.Q dose not hit that much of BTN checking range so we probably want to bet turn with our value not go for c/r

100% bet the flop

Turn is spew

prob ok in theory, but pretty weird range to have in practice
and yeah cbet flop all day

not sure how to best play pre vs this guy, would prob fold KTs and 4b as a bluff with some suited wheel aces. if I decide to 4b, I make it 28bb or so when deeper and oop vs what looks like a sticky guy.
post I usually simplify these spots and cb my best made hands and draws with the intention to shove good turns when I'm happy about my equity
problem here is KTs does really bad against a 4b calling range on this flop
not sure there's much fe to profitably cb since idk if this guy folds AK and AQs with bdfd to a small cb.
but that's not necessarily a problem since you can jam turns and pick up even more money if you know he floats flops in big pots.
however, there are no turns you really love, on the best possible turn, Qd you have like 25-30% eq, on other diamons you got 20-25%, on a Q you got under 20% vs a calling range and fe does not go over 30%, and this is if he calls the cb with most of his AK and AQs bdfd. there are also 3 kings which sometimes give you the best hand but you won't be playing for stacks with KT on this board and you won't even get to or win half the showdowns.
all in all, best case scenario, you got like 15 cards that will be breakeven or slightly losing to play for stacks and ~30 cards when you c/f turn. you might argue that c/f is 0ev, but because you ended up cb instead of giving up, not knowning you don't have good options ott, I see this 60% of the deck -ev.

I've been looking into more 4b pots lately and in my experience, if you were 4b bluffing pre, which might be perfectly fine as a vacuum, you just can't do much in 4b pots with a weak hand vs a very strong range, esp when oop ,your initiative won't compensate for all the other disadvantages, so giving up when not presented with a pristine bluff spot should be better.

Yeah I agree I don’t think a cbet works here at all. I planned on giving up but when he X back and I picked up equity a little light bulb went on. Do we think Villain folds AKo to a turn shove?

What hands fold to a flop cbet though?

yes, he folds, but he might not have many AK combos, some ship it pre, few might bet the flop. I'm sure a solver is going to say you need to ship this turn and solvers would prob have you cb small sometimes for balance and stuff but then again how many 4b pots do you play oop with a guy you're 4b bluffing for him to figure out what you're doing?

I mean, we dont need him to fold a lot once we bet flop 30% psb + we can ship a lot of turns (and we unblock his Ax float which fold turn)
Thats as far as the reasoning go but I think its OK. Not super keen on what solvers say like ionutd mentionned these pots rarely happen

in game, when I'm 4 tabling zoom, I would cb 1/3p w/o much consideration and ship this turn pretty quickly, but just lately, after looking into a lot of my 4b pots, I'm surprised as to how poor we do equity wise in these spots.



Assuming he calls pre with half of AK, KK+,KQs combos and all his QQ-TT,AQs,AJs, we're sitting on 16% eq otf. It's really hard to overcome a deficit like this



This is how much eq we got on turns that help us , on all the diamonds we average 24-25% eq and <20% on the other queens. And this is vs a range that calls our cb (when he folds some AK, some AQs and KQs).

On a Q he folds 40%, on brick diamonds 30%. Vs his stack off ranges we drop another 2-3% equity than the table shows. Input this into the equation and we get slightly profitable shoves that win an average of 5% of the pot (not accounting for rake) on 13 turns and 3 kings when we win a little bit more I guess. If we c/f almost all the other ~30 turns, I don't see how we're making money in the long run.

Apologize for the tryhard, I don't really have a solid point to prove here, just an observation I've made over studying 4b spots similar to this one, and it shouldn't be a surprise our bluffs/whiffs do bad against strong ranges but I think they do deceptively bad even when it looks like we can cb with backdoors and barrel with equity like we do in srp or 3bpots.

I mean, that range you gave is extremely nutted imo... There has to be some 77-99 in there as well as some suited Ax and suited connectors. This is Co vs. Btn not utg vs. mp

yeah but he called a 25bb 4b, do you think he's got scs and weak Axs? maybe 99/88 would be reasonable. idk, I was going after my own ranges and I don't defend any of these hands, maybe 99.

The problem is that because the ranges are so narrow, just adding a couple of combos of pps/suited Ax will radically change the ev of cbet ship turn. Hard to analyse 4bps unless we have a precise idea of what hes calling

true.
wish there was an option to run it 4 or 5 times on stars

Anyway, I think that otf, hes probs folding around 20-30% which is close to what we need to auto profit once we 1/3. Add the times where we turn equity and get folds etc. means this should be OK.

xf just idk seems weak tight

Small otf, jam turn

Seriously though, how often are we 4b KTs?

Based on the pre-flop sizes and the stacks remaining, I think you're deep enough to call pre. I wonder how wide you're 4-betting in this spot. If KTs is in it, you might have other/better candidates for making moves on this board. Bet flop, shove turn might be best though.

Good discussion...


IP:



OOP:





OOP flop equities:




My approach tends to be to give up the absolute trashiest equity combos (98s-K8s which are ~20% equity vicinity) and bet the rest.

Turn XR:




So yeah xrai w/KTs is validated.
Looks like overall Pio prefers non nut fd combo draws (K9ss) for this line.

Idk, but I always thought it was reasonable intuitively.
My criteria for 4b range would be:

- blocker (KTs has one relevant blocker)
- marginal profitability of alternative lines (KTs is in a pretty marginal spot calling vs. 3b)
- board coverage (it's probably good to be able to have some hands that aren't just overpairs on middling textures 8-Q).


For these reasons I try to mix in hands like KTs, Q8s, etc into a 4b range. Feel like many regs (myself included) tend to be too limited to A2s-A5s for the bluffing portion of their range.

I have done approximately zero work w/preflop solvers though fwiw.

Very nice post RWE! The hand Villain actually had here didn't even cross my mind and wasn't in your IP range though.

Lol did you end up bluffing with the best hand?

lol i wish. Ran into literally the nut worst hand he could have against my exact hand.