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Turn 2x overbet push vs whale? Turn 2x overbet push vs whale?

04-07-2021 , 05:02 AM
Villain is a complete idiot.
I was wondering if I should push on the turn because this way I can get the calls from draws that would fold on the river. On the turn I'm ahead and I don't care if he wins but on the river my EV is 0.
I don't think I can fold on the river with the flush blocker.
I often see the turn overbet push line from good players.

iPoker - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 167.6 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 69.95 BB
UTG: 103.8 BB
MP: 111.85 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 5.5 BB

Flop: (16.5 BB, 2 players) 2 6 9
UTG checks, Hero bets 12 BB, UTG calls 12 BB

Turn: (40.5 BB, 2 players) 4 (SPR is 2)
UTG checks, Hero bets 34.4 BB, UTG calls 34.4 BB

River: (109.3 BB, 2 players) 7
UTG bets 49.9 BB, Hero calls 46.1 BB

Spoiler:
UTG shows J 3 (Flush, Jack High)
(Pre 16%, Flop 32%, Turn 25%)
Hero mucks A A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 84%, Flop 68%, Turn 75%)
UTG wins 191.5 BB

Last edited by Grumblebrand; 04-07-2021 at 05:08 AM.
Turn 2x overbet push vs whale? Quote
04-07-2021 , 07:10 AM
sizings are all wrong, decide you want to play 2 or 3 streets poker on flop, i dont mind going 9bb preflop if you have read he is bad enaugh to call this, would be easier postflop
Turn 2x overbet push vs whale? Quote
04-07-2021 , 07:15 AM
I don't think you played this one badly, I think all spots here are pretty justified. I think you correctly identify the turn as the key decision point.

The problem with your bet size here is that you won't be able to fold the river very often, and villain is getting very close to the correct implied odds on a call with a FD. However, considering only pot size (and not stack size), your bet is good.

The other two ways you could resolve this would be sizing down a little on previous streets. For example, 6.5-7bb pre, then 9-10bb otf. That would leave you with a pot Ott of 32.5-35.5. You could then bet turn for 21-24bb and leave yourself with both some fold equity or the ability to fold more of your range otr.

However, if you feel you're playing against a calling station, and seen his hand, you'd be justified in thinking so, I think you can even size up a little pre, to 8-9bb, pot otf, and jam Ott. As played, if you feel like your jam is getting called by a 9, a lot of over pairs, and /or some FD, it would be fully justified.
Turn 2x overbet push vs whale? Quote
04-07-2021 , 07:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pjj
I don't think you played this one badly, I think all spots here are pretty justified. I think you correctly identify the turn as the key decision point.

The problem with your bet size here is that you won't be able to fold the river very often, and villain is getting very close to the correct implied odds on a call with a FD. However, considering only pot size (and not stack size), your bet is good.

The other two ways you could resolve this would be sizing down a little on previous streets. For example, 6.5-7bb pre, then 9-10bb otf. That would leave you with a pot Ott of 32.5-35.5. You could then bet turn for 21-24bb and leave yourself with both some fold equity or the ability to fold more of your range otr.

However, if you feel you're playing against a calling station, and seen his hand, you'd be justified in thinking so, I think you can even size up a little pre, to 8-9bb, pot otf, and jam Ott. As played, if you feel like your jam is getting called by a 9, a lot of over pairs, and /or some FD, it would be fully justified.

Thank you for the detailed explanation
Turn 2x overbet push vs whale? Quote

      
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