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3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to 3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to

01-15-2018 , 07:14 AM
I would like your thoughts on this -
- assuming we want to remain somewhat balanced on this flop when checked to, what should we be looking for to determine what ratios to check or bet, and within our betting range 'bluffs':'value'?

I have done some analysis below but not sure if this is good or not.

SB: €74.71
BB: €50.64
UTG: €51.75
MP: €68.87
Hero (CO): €50
BTN: €51.89

Preflop: Hero is CO with T9
fold, fold, hero raises to €1.50, fold, fold, BB raises to €6.25, hero calls €4.25

Flop: (€12.75) 29K (2 players)
UTG checks, hero?

CO calling range vs a blind 3 bet is approx

QQ-77, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AJo+, KQo

with AK/QQ being a mix but let's just flat these for this analysis

We have 121 combos on this flop -
value bets: AK (6), KQ (12), 99 (3) - 21 value combos
weak bluffs: TsJs, TcJc, ThJh (3), JQss, JQcc, JQhh, (3), QTss, QThh, QTcc (3) 78s (4), 88 (6), 77(6), TT (6), JJ (6) - 37 weak bluffs
strong bluffs: TJdd, QTdd, QJdd (3), AQdd, AJdd, ATdd (3), T9dd, 89dd - 8 strong bluffs
checks: KTs, KJs (6), QQ (6), 89ss, 89hh, 89cc, T9ss, T9cc, T9hh (6), AQ (12), AJ (12), AQss, AQcc, AQhh (3), AJss, AJhh, AJcc (3), AThh, ATss, AJcc (3) - 51 checks

So out of a range of 121 combos, I am checking back 51 and betting 66 (and 4 have gone missing somewhere) - I think this seems about right.
Of those 66 bets, 21 are very strong, 37 are weak bluffs but many of which have sdv even when called on the flop. Then we have some nut flush draws and flush+gutshot.
T9dd is a bet with very good equity. I can check the other 9x but these make good bets as well, I can reduce the bet size and bet some more hands- ?
3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to Quote
01-15-2018 , 08:08 AM
when making a HH make sure you arent holding a card thats also on the board unless your deck contains 2 9d
3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to Quote
01-15-2018 , 08:34 AM
Lol sorry, board was

29K

I had 9T
3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to Quote
01-15-2018 , 09:18 AM
Vs this sizing flop pre is ok imo.

You are bluffing too much for 3b pot all pocket pairs except maybe QQ are check beck.AK amd QQ should gii pre almost 100 % and calling range seems bit too wide esp vs bigger sizing.
3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to Quote
01-15-2018 , 10:31 AM
OK, so in 3bet pot are we checking back around 60% and betting 40%? Or how should we calc this? Cos yeah I can 4bet QQ-AK but I will still need to work out how I play calling range on this flop.
3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to Quote
01-15-2018 , 02:53 PM
Quote:
So out of a range of 121 combos, I am checking back 51 and betting 66 (and 4 have gone missing somewhere) - I think this seems about right.
You don't really want to measure how correct your analysis by the the betting frequencies as it depends on the range composition.

You're betting too much in general, KQ is probably a mix bet and you're bluffing too much.
Couple things to consider:
How our cbetting strategy affects our range on turns/rivers (e.g. currently we have no flushes on diamond turns)
How the EV of a vunerable hand e.g. 9x/77-88 may benefit from denial of equity, and also makes different lines (b/x) easier to play (e.g. what are you b/x then calling a river stab with with your current strat).
How villains can adapt if you stat betting too many thin value hands? (e.g. atm you are betting too many weak holdings leaving you vunerable to x/r).
3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to Quote
01-15-2018 , 03:17 PM
Disclaimer: I only looked at the hand. Combos, bluffs, value, and balance is too much.

Spoiler:
check flop ainec
3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to Quote
01-15-2018 , 03:24 PM
Ty

I could move some nut draws and combo draws into checking range to ensure we have some flushes/straights there. My thinking behind betting second pair type hands is that those hands are in bad shape vs villain check raising range so I don't mind a fold to raise. But I can see how this makes our betting range too weak and vulnerable.
I perceive opponent to have not many hands with 2 overs vs my 9x,77,88 in his check folding range so I am thinking now I am over protecting on this flop by betting all my weak pairs...?

What about the KJs, KTs? I thought these were fine as checks but could these be better bets than KQ?
3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to Quote
01-15-2018 , 03:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by .isolated
Disclaimer: I only looked at the hand. Combos, bluffs, value, and balance is too much.

Spoiler:
check flop ainec
I think it is closer than not close at all, there are merits to betting and checking. Which is what led me to thinking about our range on this flop and balance and all that bs.
3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to Quote
01-15-2018 , 03:29 PM
Do you fold 22-55s here after u get 3 bet oop (cutoff vs bb)? I tend to call all my pps in this spot


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3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to Quote
01-15-2018 , 03:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tomj
I think it is closer than not close at all, there are merits to betting and checking. Which is what led me to thinking about our range on this flop and balance and all that bs.


Quote:
Originally Posted by shynepo3
Do you fold 22-55s here after u get 3 bet oop (cutoff vs bb)? I tend to call all my pps in this spot
Depends on sizing. In this hand, those are folds.
3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to Quote
01-15-2018 , 07:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tomj
Ty

I could move some nut draws and combo draws into checking range to ensure we have some flushes/straights there.
I'd expect AQdd to be checked high freq and the rest checked at low frequency, wouldn't go too overboard about checking draws though.

Quote:
My thinking behind betting second pair type hands is that those hands are in bad shape vs villain check raising range so I don't mind a fold to raise. But I can see how this makes our betting range too weak and vulnerable.
I perceive opponent to have not many hands with 2 overs vs my 9x,77,88 in his check folding range so I am thinking now I am over protecting on this flop by betting all my weak pairs...?
By adding too many weak hands like JJ-77/9x you create a few issues of making your x range too strong and your betting range too weak. The EV of checking will be higher than bet/folding them I'd expect and also less exploitable.

Good point about villains range which depends on all kind of factors like 3b range cbet range etc. It's hard to say what's better because basically you're trying to guess which line has higher EV for these weak hands based off no data whatsoever. Personally I'd just add a couple in just to make it so you have more b/x/c and make your strat easier.

Quote:
What about the KJs, KTs? I thought these were fine as checks but could these be better bets than KQ?
Nah KQ will definitely get bet more than KJ/KT, only situation where weaker TP hands may get bet are like on 952 where 98 may get bet more than T9 as it needs more protection, which isn't the case as the TP is off higher value.

fwiw I think 55-22 are fine calls or folds, depending on rake and skill.
3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to Quote
01-15-2018 , 07:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ALongmuir
you're trying to guess which line has higher EV for these weak hands based off no data whatsoever.
Not sure I am wording or understanding this correctly, in particular the italised part - The higher ev line is likely to bet more often than what is optimal vs an optimal opponent. Ie. villain doesn't check raise enough and check calls his second pair type hands mostly. By knowing what the balanced line is, I know better how to deviate from it which is by for eg. making more protection bets, betting backdoor draws more often...
3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to Quote
01-15-2018 , 07:53 PM
Villain should just be cbetting everything, so what do you think he is checking?
3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to Quote
01-15-2018 , 08:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brokenstars
Villain should just be cbetting everything, so what do you think he is checking?
Yeah that's what threw me - like is he check raising me here? how should I counter this (I bet, he check folded but thats beside the point..)
Most obvious hands would be TT,JJ,QQ,KQ,KJ, some other Kxs. Can check raise nuts/nut draws..?
3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to Quote
01-15-2018 , 08:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tomj
Yeah that's what threw me - like is he check raising me here? how should I counter this (I bet, he check folded but thats beside the point..)
Most obvious hands would be TT,JJ,QQ,KQ,KJ, some other Kxs. Can check raise nuts/nut draws..?
Yeah, so I'd just check everything but AK/99 basically.
3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to Quote
01-16-2018 , 06:09 AM
Yes, of course, ty
3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to Quote
01-16-2018 , 01:02 PM
what about betting small
3bet pot as the preflop caller playing range on Kd9d2x flop when checked to Quote

      
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