and his advice to 3bet because we might get 3bet was solid?on his level it was more than solid it was Grand.

What range are you putting him on for the CO raise?

Given OP stats from 20-25% opening range max.if you want hands then: allPPs all broad ways and suited aces mixed with suited K9-K7. some Rag Aces.Note: from the last hand ranges he as a mix of them not all the aces and all Kxs.

I think the post suggesting he's opening 20% from the cutoff is a good assessment. That is a range of:

66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo, according to poker stove

Don't just stove it use common sense - he will raise every PP here.

Yes, I was going to edit that just now - I'd replace the weaker Q's, maybe some of the weaker K's, and the JTo with PP. But that gives you an idea of how wide he's raising.

{AA-22,AK-AT,KQ,Axs,K8s+,KJs,56s+,68s+} is probably my range. May be more than 20%

and you end up with pretty much the exact range I posted, weird eh?

I want to be clear that I have no problem 3betting JJ vs someone who is playing way too many hands and hates folding pf. That is a clear value 3bet. And there are probably more people who play too loose pf that against a random unknown, there is value in 3betting JJ.

However, in this situation, I am talking about a decent TAG who realizes that part of opening light from the CO and button is that they will have to dump a lot of that range to a 3bet.

Anyway, CO open range is probably something like:
any pp, any 2 broadway, A7s+, J9s, T8s, 98s, 87s. This is 21.6% of hands.

I don't know what your ranges are, but if I am CO in this hand, I would 4bet KK+ and usually AK, which is 10% of all hands I am opening with.

As a default (i.e. the first time or 2 I was 3bet), I would only call with QQ-JJ and AQs, which is fewer hands than I 4bet.

This means, the first couple of times you 3bet me, I am folding to your 3bet all but 15% of the time, and those times I don't fold (i.e. when I have JJ+,AQs+, AK) I have over 60% equity vs your JJ. So you are not getting any value out of 3betting JJ vs me, because when I don't fold, I am ahead.

Of course, if you keep 3betting me, I will adjust:

First, I will adjust by not opening 21% of my hands. I might start only opening 15.5% of my hands from CO, which will be somthing like:
any pair, any broadways except KT and QTo, T9s. You still have 65% equity vs this range.

Second, I'll adjust by calling with a few more hands like AJs, AQo, KQs, QJs and TT. That means I am now calling or 4betting with 33% of the hands I am now opening with. And now you have slightly <50% equity against the range I don't fold to your 3bet.

Third, since my opening range is tighter, with KK+, AK I am 4betting with 15% of the range I open with instead of 10%. If I also 4bet light a bit, instead of only 4betting KK+, AK, I might 4bet bluff with JTo. So if I 4bet AK, KK+, JTo, I am 4betting 20% of the time I open.

Fourth, I will play back more when I am OTB and you 3bet from SB. I will much rather play back in position, so if I need to play back against you more, I will make sure it happens when I am in position.

thats what I said like trillion pages ago before we go into a fight with udbrky.JJ have a value over villians opening range but not calling range and as you said you will usually 4bet AA KK I doubt you will do it 100% but thats still irrelevant.The thing is that even if you make money by raising jacks here you will make more money by simply calling, its basic have been ran uver like hundreds of times in SSNL.

I was about 1/4 of the way right lol. When I think about threebetting I ask myself where is my edge at and how should I seek to maximize it. If I have a postflop edge then I am not wanting to get more money in preflop since that means less money postflop and more in the pot. The more money that goes in preflop the more opportunity you have for making a mistake so if I feel like my opponents are making more mistakes then me postflop, I will try to keep the pot small preflop so I can manipulate them into putting more money in when I have a bigger edge instead of bloating the pot when the edge is small.

a) JJ -- usually three bet, sometimes just call
b) 77 -- call
c) AJo -- mix it up
c) KQs -- mix it up
d) JTs -- mix it up
e) 87s -- usually three bet

simonpoker, your posts have gone from being fairly interesting to really irritating in this thread. try and stay cool when we're just having a friendly debate.

i think the rr jacks guys have given some pretty good guestimates of our equity when we reraise; the ball is in the call jacks people's court to give some indication of how valuable calling with jacks is.

i suggested earlier that an overcard flops 70%. Given the importance of that, I think a fair way to work out the value of calling is:

0.65*(EV when an overcard flops) + 0.25*(EV when an overcard doesn't flop) + 0.08(EV when we flop a set) = total EV of calling.

I'm assuming we flop a set about 8% of the time, with an equal frequency when there is and isn't an overcard on the board.

Personally I can't imagine our EV when an overcard flops and he cbets is much better than 0, but idk.

Our EV should be pretty high when we flop an overpair, but to get a lot of value he needs top pair or a worse overpair. Idk how often that happens, but we probably average 20bb?? when it does. (when it doesn't we win a cbet+existing pot most of the time.)

our EV when we flop a set is nothing to write home about most of the time. Maybe average 10-15bbs.

Thoughts?

I think this is the key. If you assume this, then raising pretty much has to be better than calling. Those in favor of calling are assuming that we still make plenty of money on overcard flops exploiting our tight image and position.

I guess we could try to assign weighted probabilities to all the hands in his range, and see how often he has a hand that will want to continue oop on a dry overcard flop, and try to estimate the EV in this case, but I'm thinking we'll have to make so many assumptions that our conclusions won't really tell us anything meaningful. Suffice to say that his range includes lots of hands that aren't necessarily wanting to continue OOP on a high-card flop, so I think it's wrong to assume our postflop EV against overcards is 0. It's basically the same as saying that having position against his range is worthless, which seems pretty clearly incorrect.

Fundamentally, I think it just is wrong to break the hand down in terms of flop types, and how often we flop sets. If you look at this just in terms of the equity of our button calling range vs his CO opening range, our range should have positive equity, especially considering the advantage of position.

On the other hand, when we raise, we have the EV of winning right away (which is good) plus the equity we have postflop against not his opening range, but his calling range. (This has been mentioned before).

Of course, as I said before, I don't think there is really a huge EV difference between calling and 3betting here, but I don't think you can prove 3betting better via this line of analysis.

irritating?ok!

To your post then your working on wrong things - we discuss pre-flop and if to go through different scenarios post flop and find a right play by that kind of analyze you should write a book.

But I don't want to irritate any body so lets just say

if we call our Equity is 65+%
If we 3bet and get called our equity is ~35%

So how are we value betting?If we are not value betting then please everybody who are advocating a 3bet here explain why are we three betting.It can't be that hard but still noone has done it.

EDIT: just to say the flop flops an over card 57% of the time!

ah! interesting! where did you get that from?

my number: chance an overcard doesn't flop:

(50-12/50)*(49-12/49)*(48-12/48) = 30% IIRC.

well named, you're right we're not going to solve this, but i think we can get some way towards it. I have more thoughts, but I want to make sure what i'm about to say makes sense.

1 - (38/50)*(37/49)*(36/48)

I certainly will continue to call with JJ OB more often than I 3bet, but this thread has made me want to look for opportunites/opponents where 3betting for value will clearly be better than calling.

Some more thoughts. If I open from the CO and someone calls in the BB, I hate it. I hate it even more than if they 3bet (taking the hand in isolation. obv if they keep 3betting, that is worse than if they keep just calling), because if they 3bet, I can toss my crap hand away without hesitation. If they just call, I cbet 80% of flops, and when they call that, I give up, and hate having just thrown 10BB or whatever at them.

If I just call with JJ and give up on flop when an overcard hits, then it is a huge leak for me to call with JJ and I am going to just leak money. When I call IP with JJ, I am not too worried about an overcard because my default on almost any flop is to float. If I am calling IP with JJ, I am probably folding 25% of flops, raising 10%, and floating the rest of the time.

In my experience, after I call in position:

-co doesn't fire cbet (this happens more often than it should, but maybe not so much with the villain described in OP)

-co gives up on the turn and folds to turn bet.

-if an overcard flops, I am floating and making CO fire a second barrel

-I have never been CRAI on the turn when I have floated flop and bet turn with air. I keep waiting for this to happen, because I realize how exploitable floating a lot could be, so every time I do it, I wait for someone to CRAI on the turn, but it still hasn't happened.

-based on the above, I can play ATC in position the same way if villain will give up on the turn, but when I do it with JJ and get called on the turn, my hand is still going to be ahead a lot of the time, and I can v-bet a lot of rivers, or just check behind and win most pots, having got 2 streets of value out of my JJ instead of just picking up the blinds and co raise.

So a lot of the pf is dependent on reads on how people play post flop.I am less willing to call with JJ if villain 2barrels a lot, or even if they are likely to put a lot of pressure on me with a pot-sized cbet instead of just 65-75% pot-sized cbet.

My cold-call from button % is 2.6 and I am averaging 1.8BB per hand when I have floated on the button pf over my last 30,000 hands. I have no idea what my bb/hand is when I have 3bet on the button.

well, i think the biggest factor with a hand like JJ is how light a particular opponent will stack off against you post flop, and how willing you are to get all of your money in unimproved. against most 21/17/ag type regs, your jacks are going to be good on a ton of flops, especially if you are agressive and they know you. they'll put moves on the pot a lot, and QQ is usually the only hand that rapes you unimproved. i call with JJ in situations that don't lend themselves to quite the same kind of action as this one does, which is fairly often really.

mine is 2.95 big blinds (not big bets) per hand fwiw.

ok here is why i think 3betting JJ is best in this spot.

i said basically if you just call you have ~0 EV when an overcard comes, so you've basically taken your >50% a/i equity and turned it into 30% pot equity + some (but not massive) implied odds.

well named countered saying position --> bluffing vs a weak range --> EV>0 when an overcard flopped. he agreed that calling to just get aggro in pots where we flop an ovepair or better is not good. i do think you can raise or float a lot of overcard flops profitably, but if you are happy to do this and are not going to start crying about turning JJ into a bluff, why you wouldn't just raise JJ pre when is it is highly likely you have the best hand rather than when an overcard flops, when it is considerably more likely you have the worst hand??

secondly, rr and then getting called by better is hardly a disaster as we will be stacking off to these a large proportion of the time when we call and flop and overpair.

simon, i disagree with you that we are necessarily behind a 3bet calling range from this guy, but we might be. even if we are, it doesn't mean we are turning our hand into a pure bluff... we will have anything from 30-49% equity easily to go with our FE, so we're really turning our hand into a semibluff, just with a made hand rather than a draw.

I am enjoying this discussion and it certainly makes me think a lot, and I hope people who don't agree with my view on the JJ see this as a discussion and not an argument. Maybe we can do it again with 3betting out of the blinds.

Anyway, here's why I like calling with JJ.

Cliff's notes Without taking post-flop into account, calling is about .6BB hands less profitable than 3betting. But I think it is easy to make up this .6BB per hand post flop, and that playing JJ in a raised pot is a lot easier and more profitable than playing JJ in a reraised pot.

Math
So much of the math is dependent on post-flop play, so this analysis is trivial because it can’t factor in post-flop play. I do not know how to calculate your expected net return or loss postflop when you are playing JJ in a reraised pot, nor playing JJ in a raised pot.

Ranges etc for my defaults from CO vs button who had given me no reason to adjust.
CO open range:
any pp, any 2 broadway, A7s+, A9o, J9s, T8s, 98s, 87s (21.6% of. all hands)

CO 4bet range KK+ and AK (10% of opening range)

CO calling range QQ-JJ and AQ, KQs (11% of opening range)


3betting preflop
So, over 100 hands, you put 1400BB into the pot by re-raising to 14BB each time (assuming nl50), so your net investment is 1400BB

79% of the time, I fold and you win my 4BB + 1.5BB from the blinds + 14BB returned to you.

79% * 19.5BB = 1540.50BB

So, by 3betting every time, you win a total of 1540.50 – 1400 = 140.5BB/100 hands, or 1.405BB per hand preflop.

Assuming you fold the 10% of the time you get 4bet, we are left with the 11% of the time your 3bet is called. As I said before, the analysis here is trivial since there is no way to determine how much you will win/lose post flop when your 3bet gets called. But, for a baseline level, you have 47% equity vs my 3bet calling range, so assume you win 47% of the money that’s in the pot on the flop.

11 hands * 29.5BB pot * 47% = 152.50BB/100 hands, or 1.525BB per hand

So in total you win 1.405BB + 1.525BB = 2.93BB per hand when you 3bet.


Calling preflop:
Over 100 hands you invest 100 * 4BB = 400BB
You have 67% equity vs CO open range, so trivially you will win
100 hands * 67% * 9.5BB pot = 636.5 BB
636.5BB profit - 400BB investment = 236.5BB/100 hands or 2.36BB per hand when you call

So the trivial math shows 3betting winning 2.93BB per hand and calling winning 2.36BB per hand. The question is, can you make up that extra .60BB per hand post flop if you just call?

I think you can, which is why I like calling. I think you can because

a) co will cbet most of the time (say even 70%) and you will still win the majority of those pots. for example, if villain cbet 7BB into 9.5BB pot 70% of the time, and you still win 60% of those pots, that works out to
70% * 7BB cost to call cbet = 490BB investment
winning 60% of those extra 490BB cbet + 490BB call = 980BB
60% * 980BB = 588BB profit - 490BB investment = 98BB/100 or an extra .98BB per hand, so already calling gets more value than 3betting

b) CO will have AA or KK and stack off to our set sometimes. We have a set 11% of the time. CO has AA or KK about 4.5% of the time, so we will flop a set vs AA/KK .11 * .00495, so we will have set vs AA/KK 0.5% of the time. Those times we will win an extra 100BB. Some times they might not stack off, or sometimes we will lose set over set, but they also will stack off sometimes with TPTK or 2pr vs our set, but let’s say that even half the time we get a set vs AA or KK, we win a stack, so that is .25 times out of 100 that we win 100BB. So that works out to an extra 25BB/100 or .25BB per hand. (We can never do this when we 3bet, because then CO 4bets AA and KK and we fold.)

Obviously there are scenarios where we can lose big pots when we just call, and win big pots when we 3bet, but I think on average it is easier to pick up extra money with JJ in position in a raised pot than it is to get the extra money with JJ in a re-raised pot, and I think we will lose big pots more with JJ in re-raised pots than we will in raised pots.

So I the math doesn’t prove anything, but it shows how much value there is in calling with JJ in position, assuming you don’t fold every flop to a cbet.

I think in general I let game flow dictate a lot of what I am going to do here. So I only would say that the answers I give here are what I would do say 75% of the time.

A. This one actually more like 50/50 here. Against a 22/18 I think that is loose enough to 3 bet and get all the money in if he plays back. The main reason I don't like 3 betting pocket pairs in position is that when the player 4 bets you then he had a hand you could've busted a high percentage of the time if you had flopped a set. But now not only do you not get to flop it on him, you also invested a lot of $. But with JJ against a looseish player you can get all the $ in and be OK versus his range. So if the guy is vloose I 3 bet JJ a lot and if his 4 bets mean ak/qq-AA then I like a flat call.
B. Call every time here
C. I'd say 50/50 here between calling and 3 betting. If I call I raise most every flop that I miss just because, oh I don't know, I can't help myself I suppose...lol. I feel like calling and then giving up on a flop I miss is weak. If I hit then how I play it depends on how light villan stacks off. If the flop is j high and villan stacks off light then I raise flop and get the money in if I can.
D. JTs is another close one although I thin kI call here most of the time and usually float a ton of flops because jts flops either a gut shot/backdoor flush/overcards damn near every time it seems. Then if opponent ever looks weak then I step on his neck. That's usually my plan for that hand.
E. Here I would say I mostly just call. This hand is going to by far have the worst results of the hands we've talked about here, but still profitable I think. Same concept as jts except I will not flop as much potential with it and therefore will float less and give up more often with it.

I hope this helps you guys and I'll keep an eye on this thread if you have any questions/comments.

If you give up everytime an overdard come then you are absolutely right. But I call (at the very least) every conceivable flop. Ace high even. You are folding the winner far too often if you are giving up when overcards come.

Because I think that 80% of the time when I have the best hand, villain is folding and I get no value other than their initial raise.

Also, vs. the 21.6% CO raise range, we still have 64% equity when a K or Q flops, and 57% equity when an A flops. We even have 55% equity when a K and a Q flop, and 48% equity when an A and a K flop. If the flop comes AKQ, we have 67% equity. Preflop we had 67% equity. So we don't lose a lot of equity when the overcard flops--though it makes the hand trickier to play, of course--so I am willing to give up that little amount of equity post-flop in order to not have the CO fold pre-flop so much.