PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 320.5 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
SB: 83 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 3)
BB: 144.5 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 11)
UTG: 128.5 BB (VPIP: 17.36, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 10.91, Hands: 146)
Hero (MP): 100 BB
CO: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, CO calls 4 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (9.5 BB, 2 players) 9 Q Q
Hero bets 5 BB, CO raises to 10 BB, Hero calls 5 BB

Turn: (29.5 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, CO bets 86 BB and is all-in, Hero ?

as played probably fold turn. difficult to say

x flop or bet very small

Without any info im calling villain can be over playing 9x or worse pairs putting you on a draw or they can have draws themselves or be just plain out right bluffing.Sure your going to see Qx a decent amount but you'll see worse often enough to justify calling and the line isn't that indicative of a monster imo.

Folding here without any infos. Lots of players shove here with lower PPs and trash but I want to see V do this kind of stuff before I let go of my stack here.

In general I'm waiting for a read, but flop min raise looks weird and NL2z so I probably call. Mid pp shows up here quite a bit i think.

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I called, my reason was that if you're holding a Q here you're not just going to shove in all the money, you'd like to get paid.

If you want a read before calling here, you're never going to call here since the player pool is constantly changing and at any given time has 500-900+ active players.

You'd have to play hundreds of thousands of hands to get these kind of reads on people and since it's 2NL they're probably gone, moved up or gotten better by the time you get to exploit your read.

i totally i agree with u. when playing such a large pool it is just a mess and almost impossible to get reads.

i would advise you to get rid of that mindest. You have KK and call his random Jam. But it is what it is. a random Jam. Means it could be a Queen, JT, 99, A9, 98, 77 or Aces lol. People call 3 bets OOP with 77 and 4x Donk Jam on A73r. Why??? His reason might be because he thinks i have AK and wants to get in all the money.

If you have a hand and you want to call down, call down. you want to fold? fold. you will lose these pots and you will win these pots. But i would not get too much result oriented when calling random jams. You say it didnt make sense to take this line with a Q. But what hand would make sense to you to play like this? would you personally play KT like this? or T9?

Fooooldem

The no read micro villian is passive

any two hearts
JT

a bluff makes a lot more sense than a huge value overbet

Why does it make sense to overbet jam bluff when it is "obvious" that it is a bluff ?

It'd be stupid to use a different size for value/bluffs.

Population data says most players aren't bluffing turn and river jams at 2nl. Not that it is impossible but playing the odds this is a fold.

The reason why a player would jam the Q here is because they are a fish and see they have a strong hand and want to get the stacks in. In those situations we exploitative fold. It is pretty easy to play perfectly vs fish. You value bet and they call with worse. When they start taking over the betting then you have to seriously reevaluate the value of your hand.

If you had some stats and Villain was a high vpip, high RFI, high AF you'd take a moment to shout YES!!!!!! and hit the call button.

This is an unknown though so the best play is to go with the population data.

It's not that a bluff makes more sence per se but i understand what you mean when you say that.It just makes more sence to us because fish take these lines with vulnerable hands/draws rather than nutted hands.So a hand like TJ or A9 makes more sense to us for a fish to have over say AQ or 99.So im not ruling Qx out but im certainly ruling a lot of worse hands in.

Nothing is random. He will likely have reasons which we sometimes struggle to appreciate but reasons nonetheless.

Most small stakes players fear being outdrawn more than they like winning/money. A flush draw turned. A flush beats trips. It wouldn’t be at all surprising for him to jam a Q to protect his equity.

It would be more surprising to see him click flop with draw, giving you inf odds to continue.

My read ended up being correct.
Villain showed JTo and went on to lose the hand.

Might actually be a great play by villain judging by all the comments in this thread.

That's going to happen sometimes. Vs an unknown it's a guessing game. The problem with bluffing at 2nl is it costs the price of a Snickers bar to see if they have the best hand. Combine that with the fact that players will overvalue weak holdings like TP makes it a bad move. Fold Equity is low in the micros.

I watched a video from Red Chip Poker (subscription video) that had population data from millions of hands. It was something like 85% of jams on turns and rivers were 2 pair or better. It may of been higher but I know it was ridiculously high like that.

So while we can be right 15% of the time we are going to be wrong 85% of the time bluff catching. So from a profit standpoint its only good to hero call with a good reason. Not that we are never calling here. There are lots of scenarios where we call.

people arent thinking this deeply at 2nl

sounds like the call was more of a "ZOMG I HAZ KK" than anything else

Thanks, that is some very useful information!

What kind of jams though?
There's a huge difference in betting 50BB into a 100BB pot or betting 85BB into a 30BB pot.

I would assume overbets. I don't recall anything regarding sizing relative to the pot. Most will be overbets unless the initial actions were 3 and/or 4bets preflop. So I would assume higher SPR pots. Low SPRs and TPTK is the relative nuts (we are very rarely folding).

you did not have a read on him. you guessed. and you were right. it is called being lucky. if he had shown you QQ you would have been unlucky. you called off a random jam (that didnt make any sense with JT) and won. There is nothing to "learn" in this hand.

Correct and theirs also a huge difference between flop overbets like this and turn and river jams with lower spr's as well.

Opposite of great. Min-raises in my experience are trash hands and weak draws a lot, and a turn shove after a flop min-raise makes absolutely zero sense at all for a legitimate hand.