No info on villain, 3rd hand at table

Yatahay Network - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 51.5 BB
Hero (UTG): 138 BB
CO: 190.5 BB
BTN: 111 BB
SB: 40 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

Hero raises to 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) 8 T 2
SB bets 1.5 BB, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, CO raises to 34 BB, fold, Hero calls 26.5 BB

Turn: (79.5 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero checks, CO bets 79.5 BB

What should we do facing huge bet on turn?

I think our raise on flop is good, would rather not go to turn 3 ways on this board where a lot of turns bring in a lot of draws and 2 pairs.

Facing his raise on flop, I think we have to call and hope he slows down, seems a bit to tight to fold on flop.

I think you are right about calling the flop.

Subscribed to see what someone smarter than me thinks about turn.

Tbh, I'm not too convinced about the flop raise being much better than a call, although I don't think it is worse. If villain had bet a little bigger, like 1/2 pot or better, I think call becomes the better option, but vs such a small size, with a strong hand that could use protection, I think raising flop is fine. Personally, I'd call being oop, not wanting to face a raise, but I don't think raising will have much difference EV wise.

You are facing a substantial flop raise, and a pretty nasty spot. You're behind what villain is repping (2pair+), and they can easily have all sets as well as T8s. Bluff wise, I think they can have J9s, 97s, maybe some gutshots like QJ, or FD. I think the key question is what your flop r/c range is. Does it include AT? Do you open ATo here? Is it just over pairs+sets and bluffs? My guess is that if you have ATo 100% of the time in this range, those without the Ad and without the Tc will be better calls, as they decrease villain's value range by 3 combos (and their value range was only 11 combos), and unblock all realistic bluffs. If you only have only ATs in this line, then I reckon that those will be better calls than this. However, if you have only over pairs in this line, I think you want to fold all JJ (as it is such a likely card for villain to bluff with), and fold all AA-QQ that have a diamond.

Overall, I think this hand will be fairly borderline, and will be very dependent on how many good AT you have that can call. However, as this situation is pretty marginal, if at all possible, I'd use any exploitative considerations you have on your player pool. For example, if such a strong line tends to be very value heavy in your pool, I could get behind a fold with all 1 pair hands.

Since I can’t edit, I’ll change my answer here.

MDF says you have to defend half your hands here (1/1+s where s is the size of the bet so 1/1+1 or 1/2)

QQ is definitely in your top half only TT, AA, and KK being better. As a defense, I think shipping it makes the most sense. You would only have about 20bb behind if you call and you’ll put that in pretty much no matter what, so just do it now. It feels pretty gross and, again, someone smarter than me might disagree. But this is what, I think, the math says.

From a balance stand point I don't think you can fold here that often. From its 2nl standpoint I think I'm folding the river. Villain probably has 2p or a set

Sorry by here I mean the river.

I'm overfolding vs the cold 3-bet otf. It's 2nl, I don't care how exploitative this is, we are never good here enough times imo to warrant a call. Calling and folding when we miss our 2-outer against this range can't be much better imho.

At higher stakes of course this is a call, but your average 2nl pool is very very rarely doing this with combo draws.


Edit: Didn't see the fd otf. Meh, I think calling or folding is pretty close.