PokerStars - €0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 154 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 16.35, 3Bet Preflop: 7.50, Hands: 105)
MP: 43 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
CO: 22.5 BB (VPIP: 60.20, PFR: 20.60, 3Bet Preflop: 4.23, Hands: 205)
BTN: 159 BB (VPIP: 42.00, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 50)
SB: 61.5 BB (VPIP: 47.06, PFR: 1.96, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 51)
Hero (BB): 125 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4 A

fold, fold, CO calls 1 BB, BTN calls 1 BB, SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero raises to 6 BB, fold, BTN calls 5 BB, SB calls 5 BB

Flop: (19 BB, 3 players) 8 J 5
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 2 BB, SB raises to 8 BB, Hero calls 8 BB, fold

Turn: (37 BB, 2 players) 5
SB bets 10 BB, Hero raises to 20 BB, SB calls 10 BB

River: (77 BB, 2 players) 9
SB checks, Hero bets 36.5 BB, fold,

Raise/jam flop, jam turn. AP your never getting called by worse on the river.

Agreed, only worse hands I can see calling the river are some Ks. Otherwise you're just paying off a bunch of SFs.

And boats.

I think you do better by 3-betting the flop. If someone else has a flush or a set, you can often stack them.

It's $2nl and this villain's 47/2. I'm confident he pays off worse hands than Ksxs.

I'd just bet flop the first time

Villain didn't call.

That doesn't make my statement untrue.

By far the biggest mistake made in this hand is not betting the flop for a reasonable amount, say 70% pot. It's pretty unimportant how you would play the hand after this because you always should be and it's not even close at 2nl.

3bet the flop, when people show aggression they tend to not fold at 2nl.

The turn is pretty dreadful sizing, you still just want to get the money in the pot and the river you probably want to bet small.

This x 100.

No one is debating the mistakes made earlier in the hand. Villain isn't calling off a stack otr with 4 to a flush on the board with worse anywhere near often enough. Not that it will never happen, just that it won't happen often enough.

Just because villain is loose pre doesn't make him loose post. Pot should have been built earlier in the hand. Jamming this river only folds worse. "Imo"

It feels pointless to debate with you so i'll just say

no **** it's your opinion. you said something that wasn't a fact. imo isn't needed. imo

Villain is basically never folding Kx, villain is probably calling a lot of Qx and if villain had a flush on the flop he's also basically never folding this river even if it's 3s2s because of how attached people get to their hand. Which isn't saying he would call any hand with 2s in, it's different.

So you 100% definitely are getting called by worse on the river. Villain didn't jam the river either fwiw. (edit - so he bet enough to put villain all in but villain is so short it's very different to if villain jammed > pot otr. The fact villain is so short makes him even more likely to be the type of player that calls with all sorts of crap on the river, I've seen people call this spot with tp before at these stakes).

The worrying thing about your analysis is that you don't pick up on the fact that not betting the flop is by far the biggest mistake that hero can make.

Jam. Villain isn't calling a jam with worse, often enough. Smaller sizing on the river is more profitable than jamming. I don't recall saying that a smaller very doesn't ever get called. If I did then that was a mistake. Which is the mistake in your analysis of my post.

Pigs can fly "Imo"

The last line of my post should say "not betting the flop is by far the biggest mistake..." sorry. I have edited it to show this.

There's a small chance I may have gotten carried away.

Not betting that flop, very bad. Turn raise more. River is ok but at this stage you've completely butchered the hand.

It’s 2nl vs two loose passive fun players. We flop the nuts. Just shovel the money in as quick as you can. Don’t over complicate things.

the SB seems like a big passive fish. In my experience, once someone like him (47/2) raises, he is almost never folding after that, unless there is a very bad runout (like the 4th spade on the river), so I would raise flop to a significant amount. The turn raise is also to small.

Feels like a player like this also isn't folding a significant portion of flushes on the river. I've seen players like this call rivers in similar spots with 9xs and even worse a bunch of times.

damn the weak tightery is real