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5NL: bluffing the river 5NL: bluffing the river
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09-14-2017 , 12:38 PM
#1
Marcinx15
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centurion
Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 156
So I basically don't do bluff-raising the river on 5NL, but this hand is against a decent aggresive player and I thought that this is the perfect combo to do this, we don't block any missed draws, we block JJ,AK,AJ and I guess we are representing a lot of 9x. His shove on the river is preety weird, I don't think he would be slow playing AA,JJ,J9s or A9 on that flop, so he basically is representing K9s,Q9s only and even with that I would expect gim to only call. Any thoughts on the hand guys?


    Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37830036

    BTN: $9.33 (186.6 bb)
    SB: $7.36 (147.2 bb)
    Hero (BB): $8.89 (177.8 bb)
    UTG: $4.88 (97.6 bb)
    MP: $5.05 (101 bb)
    CO: $6.51 (130.2 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with K J
    UTG folds, MP raises to $0.15, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.10

    Flop: ($0.32) J 9 A (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP checks

    Turn: ($0.32) 2 (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP bets $0.23, Hero calls $0.23

    River: ($0.78) 9 (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP bets $0.75, Hero raises to $2.10, MP raises to $4.67 and is all-in, Hero folds

    Spoiler:
    Results: $4.98 pot ($0.21 rake)
    Final Board: J 9 A 2 9
    Hero mucked K J and lost (-$2.48 net)
    MP mucked and won $4.77 ($2.29 net)



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    5NL: bluffing the river Quote
    09-14-2017 , 01:06 PM
    #2
    Shamway99
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    veteran
    Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 3,348
    Lets look at frequencies first. You could have 97s+ from pre, when you call all ott it is 10 valuehands. it means 4-5 bluffs otr (expecting you dont donk R).
    Now SD value - low, it is not 0 but with many weak A in range it is x/f. But when you check some QT ott such hands are better for bluff, KJ beats missed draws that give up.
    Then blockers: blocks JJ set but V bets JJ otf = no blocker to strong range. The same for blocking bluffs, no blocker.
    All in all bluff is posible but do it rarely, prefer QTs T8s if you have them otr. Dont bet KJ with diamond.
    5NL: bluffing the river Quote
    09-14-2017 , 01:29 PM
    #3
    NoLife's Avatar
    NoLife
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    centurion
    Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 199
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Shamway99
    Lets look at frequencies first. You could have 97s+ from pre, when you call all ott it is 10 valuehands. it means 4-5 bluffs otr (expecting you dont donk R).
    Now SD value - low, it is not 0 but with many weak A in range it is x/f. But when you check some QT ott such hands are better for bluff, KJ beats missed draws that give up.
    Then blockers: blocks JJ set but V bets JJ otf = no blocker to strong range. The same for blocking bluffs, no blocker.
    All in all bluff is posible but do it rarely, prefer QTs T8s if you have them otr. Dont bet KJ with diamond.
    At first I think too that is a fold but his bet size OTR left me with doubt. Do you think that this size polarize his range and KJ become a good bluffcatcher? Hero said that V is a decent aggresive player.

    Btw,I agree that V check the weaker aces OTF and bet turn and river but the main problem is this size. I found so weird.
    5NL: bluffing the river Quote
    09-14-2017 , 01:42 PM
    #4
    Marcinx15
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    centurion
    Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 156
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Shamway99
    Lets look at frequencies first. You could have 97s+ from pre, when you call all ott it is 10 valuehands. it means 4-5 bluffs otr (expecting you dont donk R).
    Now SD value - low, it is not 0 but with many weak A in range it is x/f. But when you check some QT ott such hands are better for bluff, KJ beats missed draws that give up.
    Then blockers: blocks JJ set but V bets JJ otf = no blocker to strong range. The same for blocking bluffs, no blocker.
    All in all bluff is posible but do it rarely, prefer QTs T8s if you have them otr. Dont bet KJ with diamond.
    This is solid analysis, thx for that. The thing is I bet QTs T8s on the turn almost always, so I wouldn't find myself with these combos here. I do it very rarely in fact as I don't think it could be ever +EV with 5NL population in general.
    5NL: bluffing the river Quote
    09-14-2017 , 03:08 PM
    #5
    ALongmuir
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    adept
    Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 1,072
    As said, your blockers are pretty irrelevant as the range you are blocking bet flop at a very high frequency.

    Shamway's analysis is pretty good but the SDV of KJ is irrelevant once villain has bet and it's in our x/f range, plus I think QTs/T8s bet turn at high freq. Just wrote out my thoughts on the hand and then realised our 9x should likely be folding turn given how tight our flat range is here + the amount of Ax/Jx in it. Let's say we float some amount of 9x, I think blocking any T-7 is best here, and the only hands I see that take this line are TT/JTs, depending on 3B range.
    5NL: bluffing the river Quote
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