Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero (BTN) has 66

fold, HJ limps 1 BB, CO limps 1 BB, Hero raises to 5 BB, SB 3-bets to 20 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 15 BB

Flop: (43 BB, 2 players) 225
SB bets 13 BB, Hero calls 13 BB

Turn: (69 BB, 2 players) 5
BB checks, Hero bets 17.25 BB, BB calls 17.25 BB

River: (103.5 BB, 2 players) 4
BB checks, Hero checks

We are 200bb effective. Villain is 24/20/12, solid winning reg according to my notes. Sorry for botched HH.

Would you bet turn for protection? I might be overvaluing our necessity to fold out hands with like 14% equity vs. our hand. However we can get some value vs. villain's A-hi, and we block vs. strong hands.

Could someone please run a solve for this spot and maybe also what villain's response to this turn bet should be?

My fear is that villain should be checking turn here sometimes with big PP, which then gets the green light to check raise once we bet small. However I don't think villain has a huge need to check this board with big PP's too often in the first place because the board still favours villain, I think 5 is very much a brick.

Thanks!

This hand is really hard to sim due to the limpers, deep stacks, and huge 3bet from villain. Isolating is obv fine, but I am a regfish so I often try to overlimp here. The small turn bet looks okay to me. It's nice to get rid of 2 overcards or charge A hi, and I doubt villain check-raises here much at all. I agree with your read on the situation.

You could sim it without the limpers? I would assume my BTN iso raise range is similar to my CO opening range, perhaps even a bit tighter, when there are two limpers.

It's a fairly common spot so would be interesting to know what a GTO approach to playing this turn (on both sides) looks like.

Edit: I think this hand plays very similarly to hero opening from HJ/CO, SB 3-betting, at 100bb deep effective. In a scenario where hero opens HJ/CO to 2.5 and SB 3-bets to 10, hero calls, SPR is around 4.3:1. In this particular hand SPR is actually lower at 4.2:1. So we could sim that and we'd be very very close.

Ok, so I just ran a sim in GTO Wizard as HJ vs SB 100BB deep, and it just checks the turn 100% with 66. But I still suspect that your line is okay.

turn play depends entirely on villain skill level, solver assume its high, so checks turn becouse 5 is bad for our range, we are capped to waak overpair, and villain can punish stabs if we overdo this, real qestion is what we do if villain cr turn or even check shove?

Wp.

Betting turn small seems best. In practice micro/smallstakes-population will underbluff with x/r vs that turnstab from my experience. Checking turn in your spot would be fine too.

Ok, thank you for the replies!

I agree that stabbing is good vs. pool that doesn't check enough strong hand ott, we probably are able to get thin value and tons of folds.

Villain showed QQ, what do you think of that play?

Does a solver play QQ like this ever? If I were villain I think I would prefer to bet QQ and perhaps check AA. Also I would like to x/r often with big pairs if I do decide to check turn. Judging villain's game I just feel they are leaving way too much value on the table with a hand that is almost like the nuts in this situation.

He is fish, if he is checking turn, he should be doing this with intention of cr, not cc, unless ha have some strong read you are overaggressive and he get bluff or xtra bet on river, but this line look like he is genuinely afraid of you having 5 or deuce, it's just BS