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Old 08-09-2018, 08:32 PM   #1
Falker34
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25NL: River decision w/ flush

Villian is a fish. Should I call the river bet? Is his range only full house/flush or bluff? I'm getting 2.8 to 1 on a river call and need him to be bluffing 26.3% of the time to break even.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.25(BB)
UTG ($104.97) [VPIP: 17.6% | PFR: 11.8% | AGG: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 4.4% | Hands: 175]
HJ ($25) [VPIP: 17% | PFR: 13.5% | AGG: 40% | 3-Bet: 5.3% | Hands: 146]
CO ($42.71) [VPIP: 48.5% | PFR: 27.3% | AGG: 37% | 3-Bet: 30.8% | Hands: 33]
BTN ($25) [VPIP: 16.5% | PFR: 14.4% | AGG: 28.6% | 3-Bet: 6.7% | Hands: 97]
HERO ($30.9) [VPIP: 33.1% | PFR: 24.8% | AGG: 42.4% | 3-Bet: 7.3% | Hands: 4694]
BB ($41.42) [VPIP: 39.2% | PFR: 20.3% | AGG: 19.5% | 3-Bet: 12.9% | Hands: 81]

Dealt to Hero: 5 7

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Calls $0.25, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $1, BB Folds, CO Calls $0.75

Hero SPR on Flop: [13.29 effective]
Flop ($2.25): 3 6 K
HERO Bets $1.42 (Rem. Stack: 28.48), CO Calls $1.42 (Rem. Stack: 40.29)

Turn ($5.09): 3 6 K 8
HERO Bets $2.40 (Rem. Stack: 26.08), CO Calls $2.40 (Rem. Stack: 37.89)

River ($9.89): 3 6 K 8 8
HERO Bets $6.23 (Rem. Stack: 19.85), CO Raises To $18.69 (Rem. Stack: 19.20), Should HERO Call $12.46?
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Old 08-09-2018, 08:47 PM   #2
DooDooPoker
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Re: 25NL: River decision w/ flush

What is going on preflop? As played, fold river
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Old 08-09-2018, 09:29 PM   #3
captainlobo
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Re: 25NL: River decision w/ flush

I like to isolate with these types of hands oop when single players with deep stacks limp. Make it larger pre... About 1.25 to go. As played, I would've bet larger on the turn 3/4 to full pot as you fold out marginal hands that call on the flop. You can balance with your monsters. The river bet is quite large. A single king probably won't call. Make river bet half pot. As played river looks like a fold.

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Old 08-09-2018, 09:35 PM   #4
Captain Underpairs
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Re: 25NL: River decision w/ flush

Grunch

I like checkin river because I think that Kx is scared on this board... so check to induce. Although I think villian us both betting and raising with a lot of garbage. That said I would call as played because he could get out of line with a meh king 8 or a missed str8.

Also ... I think isoing this guy oop is not a good thing. I don't like bluffing and bloating pots with meh holdings versus wacky stations.

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Old 08-09-2018, 09:36 PM   #5
jay94
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Re: 25NL: River decision w/ flush

Easy fold, I doubt he is bluffing half of that %.
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Old 08-09-2018, 11:32 PM   #6
BigBananas
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Re: 25NL: River decision w/ flush

Pf most likely bad, but theres a few cases where its good.

More flop/turn/river. Fold to river raise
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Old 08-09-2018, 11:40 PM   #7
pipimeowmeow
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Re: 25NL: River decision w/ flush

Preflop call to see a cheap flop
Raising is so bad as villian calls u often and you are out of position
If u want to raise pre flop make it 1.25 or 1.50 and try win it right there

Given the play
Bet 3/4 flop bet 3/4 turn, bet like u having a set

River... check call, a worst hand is sure to fold if u bet and a better hand will raise u
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Old 08-10-2018, 07:06 AM   #8
Cavallo Italiano
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Re: 25NL: River decision w/ flush

@Captain Underpairs Get out of here dude, awful stuff.

"Check river because Kx is scared of the runout" - Awful logic.
"Check river to induce?" - What are you going to induce on this runout that's not gonna call a bet anyway? Almost all other pairs with showdown value check behind.

Call as played, because he could have busted straight draws? Villain must have exactly limp/called 45s or 57s, which you both block and can't hold any spades so Villain doesn't have any spade blockers making bluffing a lot worse. Call because he could get out of line with a meh Kx? No, he checks that back, even fish at 25NL have some standards. Call because he could get out of line with an 8? He doesn't call any hands that have an 8 on the flop that don't make a boat on the river, because there aren't and hand combinations with an 8 in them that are drawing. He has two combo's of eights: A8 and A8



Call

You can go either way preflop, I like the aggressive line though.
Flop is fine.
Turn size needs to be bigger in my opinion, I would bet around 70%
Difficult spot on the river. It's probably a fold, but I wouldn't have it in me against someone I perceive to be playing kind of funny.

I wouldn't take any of the advice given above seriously by the way, except for jay94's statemtent that it's a fold.

Last edited by Cavallo Italiano; 08-10-2018 at 07:33 AM.
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Old 08-10-2018, 07:19 AM   #9
hardcoresoul
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Re: 25NL: River decision w/ flush

Most of the times this limp call line has a lot of small pairs in his range. Even though he's only representig 33 and 66 i think that given the action til river he's allways representing boats here, I don't see him do this as a bluff
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Old 08-10-2018, 07:43 AM   #10
Cavallo Italiano
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Re: 25NL: River decision w/ flush

Meant to type A8 by the way.

River spot is only somewhat difficult because Villain is a fish and you don't exactly always know what they're doing. He almost doesn't have any bluffs though and probably limps a lot of his small PP's and Axs, as mentioned above. Pretty clear cut fold if you control your emotions during the hand.
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Old 08-10-2018, 09:35 AM   #11
simplelessons
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Re: 25NL: River decision w/ flush

River is a fold. Pre is a fold. If we are going to iso a limper do it in position not OOP.
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Old 08-10-2018, 10:21 AM   #12
DooDooPoker
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Re: 25NL: River decision w/ flush

Yeah bloating the pot OOP with 7 high is not a good strategy
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Old 08-10-2018, 12:19 PM   #13
duckyfAL
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Re: 25NL: River decision w/ flush

i understand you thought PF, because i have a similar style, but read me, if he limp you should call, if he raise NOW im 3betting with that hand, but if he limps i dont see so much sense to raise here oop against a fish with a weak hand.

im calling river against the fish.
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Old 08-10-2018, 12:23 PM   #14
robert_utk
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Re: 25NL: River decision w/ flush

I don’t know what hero is trying to accomplish on any street.

River is almost always a FH or better flush. Calling villain a fish just makes it more likely, not less likely.

Pre limpers are making a mistake, but not every optimal response is iso-raise. BB is aggro, but still even if BB squeezes, we risk only 0.5bb to see a flop with a hand that is exactly what we would want in a 3-way limped pot.
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