I don't have a lot of hands on villain.
The only semi-reliable stats I have are 32/20 VPIP/PFR and I also have a note on him that says "squeeze 22 BB vs. MP open + CO call", so I guess that tells me he's pretty loose.

Villain opens to 3BB UTG, CO calls, I have AQ on the button and raise to 12.5BB, Villain calls, CO folds.

I think I would flat here sometimes but I would prefer to flat with suited AQ multiway and also since his open is wider than a typical TAG I think I'm ahead of his range by a large margin.

At this point when he calls my 3bet I'm putting him on middle pairs like 77-JJ and suited broadways down to JTs, maybe even 98s, and ATs+ and AJo+. Does that seem reasonable?

Flop (31BB) 472

Villain checks and I check.

Is this a mandatory cbet?

I thought that if I bet then the only hands that will fold are ones that I have crushed. He definitely calls with every pair and every suited diamond. Plus I have showdown value and backdoor to the nut flush so I don't want to bet and get raised.

Also, I could protect my checking range by checking a hand like pocket aces here as well. Aces would be so far ahead of his range here that I could check to let him catch up and still get all the money in the middle with 2 75% pot bets on the turn and river.

Finally, a check will allow me to see what my opponent does on the turn, which will give me a better idea of his strength.

Turn (31BB) 472J

Villain checks, Hero bets 11BB, Villain calls.

Here's where I'm really starting to doubt myself.
I'm not sure whether I should just check again with a fd to the nuts and still decent showdown value OR make like a standard sized bet of 50-70%?

Instead I decided to level myself and try something creative.

At the time I was thinking that if I just check then he might turn a hand like KQ into a bluff on the river and if he makes a big bet I'll be put into a tough spot and might have to fold. So my small bet is like a blocker bet to allow me to see a cheap showdown.

Also I could still conceivably make a similar sized bet with a hand like aces again trying to keep most of his range in including middle pairs with no diamonds.

Anyway, I'm definitely not super happy about my turn play but on to the river...

River (53BB) 472JJ

Effective stacks at this point are 75BB.

Villain checks, Hero ?



Thanks!

I think your initial 3bet is a bit too big, but that's a nitpick.

I would probably cbet here. His range is pretty capped here, so it's pretty hard for him to c/raise. We take ourselves to value town against medium pairs a lot, but we have two live overs and plenty of good turns to second barrel. I do agree that having the Ad means we should be a bit more willing to check back, but I still prefer a bet. I don't think checking back is horrible though.

On the turn, I think the bet is okay, but would've prefer a 50-60% pot size than the small bet to put additional pressure on 88-TT. I think a check back would've been fine too.

I think the J on the river is a bad card to fire another barrel on. You're now less likely to have a J combinatorically, so you just aren't repping much. With that said, I am surprised he showed up with 33. Dicey call for him on all streets.

I think vs a UTG raise/call then a check is fine here. It's a bonus that you've the Ad and that might be reason enough to bet here but I still think a check is good.

On turn you're getting called by any flush, 88,99,TT, KQs that might have not bet thus far. I think to get a fold here you'd be betting larger. You're inviting too much to call by betting 1/3-pot. People only need 16% equity for a breakeven result just to call and you're going to boost their continuing range.

As played I think a bet would only let you rep a jack here given the draws. I don't think there are too many Jacks in your range though. JJ, AJ possibly, the rest would call and I suppose you'd have some 3-bet bluffs with Jx but I think it's a bet/fold when the draw bricks.

I'd say beautiful flop to CB and very likely 3barrel, most part of his range is not folding now I agree but will do it later, we can double barrel any diamond and any high card (maybe 9+ and the A is check trying to get the value OTR or just calling when face a bet).

That's interesting you say my 3bet is big because my squeeze is 1 BB less than a pot sized raise and I've noticed a trend lately online of bigger 3-bets (like above pot sized) so I was a bit concerned that my raise was on the small size. Like you said though, it's pretty insignificant.

Turn is also interesting you're basically saying that all 3 plays are fine: check, bet small, bet large

I wasn't sure if turn play was my biggest mistake but you're right my biggest mistake was probably on the river because the J is a bad card to bluff. What do you think of a huge bluff though, like an all in?

I was really surprised to see 33 at the end!

So are you advocating for a check or a bigger bet on the turn?

Either way, I should just give up on the river though right?

It's hard to triple barrel here due to SPR. If I bet half pot on the flop and turn then I only have 33% bet remaining on the river. If I bet 70% on flop and turn then that's my whole stack.

I actually didn't notice CO in the hand. That makes the sizing ok. But when you're IP, I prefer to 3bet closer to 3/4 pot. OOP, I like to go pot-size.

Turn, I think betting larger is definitely better than betting smaller. Checking is also fine though.

Overbet jam on river is actually pretty interesting especially holding the Ad. His range should be pretty capped on river. Your line looks kinda FOS, but a lot of players still won't have the stones to call off with 99 here. I hadn't considered this line, but I kinda like it now that I think about it.

Don't use half pot OTF, 30% is fine, maybe 25%

31bb OTF + 10bb CB (with 77bb behind)+ 10bb from his call

51bb OTT + 27bb CB ( with 50bb behind) + 27bb from his call

105bb OTR having almost 50% left for a 3barrel, you will find fold equity even there but in most cases you will make him fold OTT.

You really think that he will fold vs. 25/30% on the flop and turn even though he called vs 35% and 70% on the turn and river?
I find that hard to believe especially since I'm targeting his entire range up to TT and not just the bottom of his range (33).

That's the problem though, if this guy is willing to call with 33 here, would he really fold 99 to an overbet?

Also, if I bet larger on the turn then my river jam will be smaller. It won't be an overbet anymore...
And if I check the turn then he's probably not folding to a single bet at the end so I should probably just check it down, no?
Finally, if I check turn and he decides to lead river, do I hero call? I guess the A of diamonds would be a bad blocker to have in that case.

That's just being results oriented. Pretend you don't know he has 33.

Okay...

Not knowing he has 33, would a larger bet have enough fold equity vs his range?

I'm not sure, and I don't know if I would've had the stones to try it, but I wouldn't hate the move.

I would have gone for the exact opposite of what you've done. Instead of check-bet-bet, it's rather a bet-check-check for me. The flop is pretty well textured for a cbet, then after you got called, you can check twice while you still have some showdown value.

Don't you think betting flop will fold out all hands that we're ahead of and get called by all made hands that have us beat?
What happens if we cbet flop, check back turn and he leads river, do we bluff catch?

We don't have info about villain's fold to 3bet stat, but based on vpip and pfr he is quite loose. He may call a 3bet with pocket pairs, suited ace hands, suited connectors, probably even suited one gappers and broadway combos. There's a ton of combos that should mostly give up out of position if you cbet the flop. When you ask "betting flop will fold out all hands that we're ahead of", I think you see it from the wrong direction. There's nothing wrong about villain folding his worse hands, because even with air he does have some equity, and by folding he can't realize this equity.
Well, I don't hate the check on the flop, but if you decide to check I think you should most often check the turn too. If you want to take a stab with A high, it is much better to do it OTF than OTT with a delayed cbet.
To answer your other question, if he check/calls, checks then donks the river, yes, I may go for bluffcatching. In this kind of scenario, I normally check his stats (river aggression, river donks, w$sd) and the size of the bet is obviously another important factor.

Would you really check back AA on the flop? Of course you could protect in theory ...but would you?

I would like to make a small bet with the whole of range on the flop, if he folds hands with 10-20% equity it’s not a bad result, especially if you bet small (so it’s little risk). This also means you can see two cards with your overcards unless he checkraises. If he does check raise, you still auto win if you play it solid because you’re uncapped and he’s not.

OTT and OTR as played I would jam if I was going to bluff, because if you had a flush you should be playing for all the chips. If you had a J I’m not so sure.