What hands can we x/shove river as a bluff? How thin can we value shove?

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 24.6 BB (VPIP: 47.83, PFR: 21.74, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
Hero (BB): 124.52 BB
UTG: 82.2 BB (VPIP: 52.17, PFR: 19.57, 3Bet Preflop: 2.08, Hands: 95)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 19.63, PFR: 12.22, 3Bet Preflop: 5.98, Hands: 279)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 17.59, PFR: 8.54, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 203)
BTN: 143.68 BB (VPIP: 20.46, PFR: 16.22, 3Bet Preflop: 10.78, Hands: 266)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A 3

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, BTN calls 9 BB

Flop: (24.4 BB, 2 players) A Q 4
Hero checks, BTN bets 14 BB, Hero calls 14 BB

Turn: (52.4 BB, 2 players) T
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (52.4 BB, 2 players) K
Hero checks, BTN bets 29 BB

So I’d rather 3bet A4s/A5s preflop. We shouldn’t really be 3betting hands with a deuce or three in them because they play poorly postflop, especially OOP.

As for post flop, we have more suited hands in our range then BU so we flop more flushes which is good. Given that I’d cbet this flop.

As for bluffs, that’s a good question I’d have to think about for a bit. Since we do not have any natural ones.

Can't think of any bluffs. 9cX is probably the lightest to value shove.

I don't like a cbet here at all and x/c is marginal. x/f river like I said you have nothing to bluff or incentive to do so.

okay i just spent like an hour thinking about this hand: Here it goes

Any bluffs we have on this board are going to be unnatural bluffs, which need a different set of criteria than normal bluffs.

The criteria for unnatural bluffs in this spot will be as follows:

1) We need to be at the bottom of our range
2) We will want to unblock Villains most likely flop calling range that will fold to a river bet
3) We need to pick a hand that is most often in our 3betting range

I present to you: 76,76,76

This hand serves a 3 pronged purpose:

1) It is our most frequent 3bet hand while simultaneously being at the bottom of our range (i.e. no showdown value)
2) It blocks Villains weakest Ace suited hands which unblock his most likely suited Aces, making him more likely to have top pair.

Example: Villain will call A5 more often then A6 because A5 is a superior postflop hand.

This is why 76s is superior to both 65s,54s and 87s,98s.

(Villain is more likely to call A4s,A5s,A8s,A9s over A6s,A7s.)

We also do not want broadway cards in our hand for obvious reasons, these cards will make Ax less likely.

3) 76s can make more straights than 65s,54s while also making higher pairs and consequently has a lower chance of being counterfeited.

This is actually a pretty important point. Not only is 76s superior to 65s,54s in making high pairs, while also being less likely to be counterfeited. But it also has the added benefit of being able to make more straights

(i.e. Board reads A2345, 54s can never make a higher straight)
(i.e. Board reads A2345 65s can never make the nut straight)
(i.e. Board reads A2345 76s can make the nut straight)

So all in all - we need a hand that is at the bottom of our range, unblocks Villains most likely Aces, and can make the most straights possible.

76s FTW.

Sorry swap out 76 for 76

A cbet is probably going to win otf most of the time. I'm not getting value from worse, it's purely going to fold out underpairs with no club or the connectors that aren't clubs. Don't think QJs or KQs even calls a flop bet. A cbet gets called by better Ax hands and club draws that have a ton of equity against me. I think checking gives V the chance to bluff with the worst part of his range. The runout sucks so I am really just hoping V gives up.

Like I said above I think a cbet otf doesn't get called by worse. I like to have a checking range since Vs like to attack at least once with air when you check. Weakest Ax, even on monotone boards seem like a good fit. What is your reasoning for betting flop?

As for your analysis, very in depth and appreciated! Is that all based on a flop cbet and turn x? I like the 67s, btw.

So we shouldn’t be 3betting this preflop but as played. We want to size down on monotone boards for a couple reasons

1) Opponents normally play very straight forward postflop on these type of boards, betting big let’s them get away from marginal holdings too easily.

2) We bet because this board is better for us aka range advantage.

As for no worse hands calling, well that is why we bet small. Certainly middling pocket pairs with a club call flop. We also want to take the pot down now since there are not many good turns for us. Checking puts us in a precarious spot since we will be ahead of the flop often but will under realize our equity on most turns and rivers.

Yeah the 76s analysis for a bet/check/bet line.

Bet flop 1/3 u want immediate folds

c/c isn't good

Good points. I was betting these flops 2 months ago. Feels like I forgot how to play for some reason.

Always appreciate the feedback.

Cbetting is clearly better than xcing.

No, that's horribly wrong. Cbetting turns a bluffcatching hand into a bluff. Same as when you are on the button vs the blinds and you flop an A with a more conventional A high flop and you check A3 back and then go for a delayed vbet on another street.

Concepts like bluff and bluff catcher don’t come to fruition until the river. You’re applying river concepts to flop play. On the flop and turn, equity realization is much more important then the black and white line of thinking that comes with river play.

Also your example doesn’t makes any sense because those situations are completely different.

On the Ace high flop with A3 we don’t benefit from protection since there are less bad turns for us so checking is okay.

On this board with a pair of aces we benefit immediately from protection and equity realization because almost every turn is bad for us.

I think hand is played fine assuming you check/folded river.

Immediate folds are basically drawing dead vs us... He wont fold his pps with a club to one bet, unless we bomb it which would be terrible. Bloating the pot oop with tpwk sounds like a terrible idea to me.

x flop and evaluate.

These are also reasons not to bet the flop. His flop calling range is doing so well vs this particular hand that we will get bluffed off on later streets way to often to warrant a cbet. Just because we likely have the best hand postflop doesnt mean we should be cbetting...

Hate to say it but worldzmine is right here.... And i suspect cbetting here is a lot worse than ppl may think in terms of ev that is...

+1

river ch/r is kind off sick. You dont have too much hands there from value, reduced by flop and river check actions,kq,kk maybe ak with clubs.U need propably queen to block both K clubs and J clubs combos betting on river. It should be kq diamonds or spades to bluff there on river.

I x flop as well. seems like a bad spot to put money in

I guess I’m wrong here but if we are checking this hand shouldn’t we just check range? The only hands that want to bet are flushes and sets

not range but checking a lot. Going to be cbetting quite polar...

cbet flop, you are happy to see villian fold

check call feels so bad.. you never know where you are and you have a problem calling a second bet

That means our checking range is weak though, or at least middling. I don’t think I want to split my range into nuts/air with a cbet and then if my hand is okay I’ll check.

That strategy seems like it would get punished by observant regs.

Also if you cbet polar you should size up, but we want hands like weak aces to continue OTF. So that isn’t really consistent with our goals. Thoughts?

You still has some flushes and hands like AxKc in your checking range. When i mean polar, i simply mean that we should be betting more polarised than A3hh... I havent ran a sim on this, but its possible that oop player is supposed to x 80-100%.

You dont think a competent reg will abuse you when he realises you cbet A3hh on AQ2 mono oop? Count all the random Ax combos that we have otf. Its a lot. We cannot start cbetting all of them cuz lolprotection...

I would be checking a ton otf (including AA/KxKc/some flushes/AxKc/JxJc etc) in order to protect the weak Ax part of my range. That means I need little bluffs otf, which would include some no equity hands like 76s and 109s for example... I am unsure about the flop sizing since usually mono boards require small sizings but i could see the reasoning behind using a large flop cbet, since it really ****s his pair + fd part of his range....

So low frequency, big sizing is fine imo..

Think theres more than one viable strat here but I agree with those favouring cbet. I'd bet range about 25%.

- This texture will be dramatically over-folded therefore I want to bluff everything, therefore I need actual hands to balance the air.

- It's small stakes, they won't bluff enough when x to in a 3b pot on Axx mono

- A3dd is not that good a bluffcatcher. No outs or blockers to nut hands.

- I deny equity. Remember those hands that were drawing dead like JTdd? Well what's the point allowing that to freeroll a straight. If he's not charging himself by bluffing I want him to fold. 6c6x should fold too, if it doesn't and the turn bricks then small stakes passive reg will likely be happy to check down and I win and got a bet paid, yay.

- Get value from hands like Qx no club which are toast and if he folds I don't care, he wasn't about to bluff.

- Betting big doesn't deny equity from the hands that are drawing live against our strongest non flush hands so I don't want to strengthen/polarise his range to nut hands and nut draws by bombing flop with my supposed strong hands.

- Betting range 25% is easy to balance.