Villain appears to be a reg. I have looked at this with flopzilla and think there are enough bluff/semi-bluff combos in his range OTT to call. OTR I think it is close. I am getting 7 set combos, 5 2-pair combos (mainly Axs) v 4 missed FD combos to give 25% equity if his range is polarized. So fold was right (31% to call) unless he bets this size with Kx in which case my equity is 33%.

Just a weird hand so any thoughts appreciated.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 125.16 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 33)
Hero (SB): 134.4 BB
BB: 127.92 BB (VPIP: 45.45, PFR: 27.27, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
UTG: 112.28 BB (VPIP: 17.50, PFR: 17.50, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 41)
MP: 163.88 BB
CO: 458.16 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A 4

UTG raises to 2.24 BB, MP calls 2.24 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.84 BB, fold

Flop: (7.72 BB, 3 players) A 2 7
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks

Turn: (7.72 BB, 3 players) 5
Hero bets 4 BB, UTG raises to 16 BB, fold, Hero calls 12 BB

River: (39.72 BB, 2 players) K
Hero checks, UTG bets 32 BB, fold

UTG wins 37.92 BB

Mmm... 3bet or fold preflop. AP I am folding the river as well.

Think turn bet is bad.
UTG range isn't capped and UTG/MP can have all good hands here.

Might wanna fold OTT or atleast OTR.

Pre I'm going either way... think calling isn't that bad

If original raiser was CO/BTN I would have 3-bet. Given one call it would have had to be a big 3-bet and UTG could have called IP and I would have trouble realising any equity despite having a slight range advantage IMO. BB looked like a fish so I thought a squeeze was fairly unlikely.

Thanks. You might be right about the bet, It was more for protection than value although UTG could have a 88-QQ type hand that would call mid-sized bet?

Your comment about UTG not being capped is the key one though, his check on the flop is what confused me. AQ+ would bet IMO given it is multi-way and had a FD which leaves AA and 77 (I don't think many regs open 22 UTG), OTT 55 is still in his range. So while uncapped it is a pretty small part of his range and I think AA/77 would go for three streets of value fairly often.

OTT he has the 7 combos of AA/77/55 as the value side of his range and 6 FD combos as a semi-bluff plus 88-kk he could be turning in to a bluff and I need 30% to call. So I think the call was ok OTT and fold OTR if we think it is unlikely he would fire another big river bluff with the under pairs.

Dont think people tend to turn 88-KK into bluff that often, that is why I'd lean towards folding OTT...

And flopped FD is played pretty straightforward (cbet flop, not check the flop and raise OTT)...

This is just my opinion.. Think V has super super solid holdings here very often and that is why I like to fold to a raise.

On hindsight, I think you are right about flopped FD c/betting a lot, KQs/KJs/QJs would bet 10Js/910s/89s could check to pot control. If you apply this logic I think I am leaning towards a fold OTT now. Thanks again.

We aren't protecting against very much since people auto-bet flush draws on the flop so I don't really like the turn bet. When we get raised it's like A5/55 or some kind of flop trap close to always.

Thanks buddy, would you c/c turn then?

Yeah, bet blank rivers if it checks again.