Read on Villain

V is too loose PF, I saw him flat A3s MP when i was opening UTG.



iPoker - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 190.5 BB (VPIP: 23.44, PFR: 15.63, 3Bet Preflop: 11.54, Hands: 64)
UTG: 95.75 BB (VPIP: 51.19, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 88)
MP: 138.9 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 19.61, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 53)
Hero (CO): 104.05 BB
BTN: 149.55 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 20.83, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 50)
SB: 141.3 BB (VPIP: 27.08, PFR: 22.92, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 52)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, UTG posts penalty blind 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has 4 A

UTG checks, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, BTN calls 4 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (10.5 BB, 2 players) 4 5 2
Hero checks, BTN bets 7.35 BB, Hero calls 7.35 BB

Turn: (25.2 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, BTN bets 17.6 BB, Hero calls 17.6 BB

River: (60.4 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, BTN bets 120.6 BB, fold

BTN wins 56.4 BB


My analysis

PF : I would isolate the poster with all my Axs.

Flop : Feels like my overall UTG range does not like this texture, so I decided to x/c.

The range I assign V when he makes this bet : As I said at the beginning of the review, V is overcalling way to wide PF, so I think his flop betting range may look like :

A2s-A7s with backdoor flush draws (except for A3s, obviously); 22-JJ

Turn : Pretty easy call, I don't want to raise as i'm never called by worse.

V's range : The exact same Axs that I mentioned before but almost all PP are not betting, except for 66

I have 23.86% against this range, making it a slightly +EV call.

Note : I did not include some random hands that V can be betting, following the old adage "you check, you're weak, I bet", so there are probably some WTF combos making the previous calls a bit more +EV.

River : A brick. Villain has 0 bluff if the range I assigned him is correct, making it at best a chop, so I fold.
Maybe there are still some airballs that decide to go for it. However, the vast majority of NL20 would snap call with my hand, making it a terrible spot to bluff.

By looking at it now, it is an even easier fold.

What do you guys think?

that's not how it works, villain gets to bet the river too

you have a **** ton of Ax on the river so you should be folding a lot of them to a 2x pot and villain should never bet this size with Ax, it's either a 6 or a bluff

Well with effective stacks is basically a slight overbet. Point remains the same tho that you have a ton of Ax here and this should be super polar. Without a read that vil is capable of bluffing this AND thinks you’re a thinking player who would fold, then it’s a fold.


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