xxx, Hold'em No Limit - $1/$2 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $220.12 (110 bb)
MP: $200 (100 bb)
CO: $358.16 (179 bb)
BU: $200 (100 bb)
SB: $982.44 (491 bb)
BB: $200 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($3) 2 players fold, CO raises to $5.02 1 fold SB 3-bets to $20, 1 fold, CO calls $14.98

Flop: ($42) 7♦ 7♣ J♥ (2 players)
SB bets $13, CO calls $13

Turn: ($68) 9♥ (2 players)
SB bets $44, CO calls $44

River: ($156) K♣ (2 players)
SB bets $82, CO raises to $281.16 (all-in), SB folds


So obviously I played this hand but wont reveal who I was/with what holding so we can have some good strat talk

So first both players are winning regs.

I am curious what you think SB value betting range looks like and what he/you would call otr vs. that raise
Same applies for CO, whats his range looks like (Bluffs/value?)

Please comment on sizings also

Its a very interesting spot imo and ill fully give my thoughts once a few peeps have said their share

SB should have very few 7x even at this stack depth, 87s is probably it, CO can definitely have some.

Feel like SB's range should be quite polarised on this river but his bet size doesn't really reflect that (KJs, JJ, KK, 99, 77, QThh, AA, air), can VB AKhh i suppose.

CO can obv have more 7x combos but not too many, 87s,76s, A7s?, 77, JJ, KJ, 99, can turn some Jx into a bluff OTR, J9s etc.

What should IP do with his 7x? raise or call? Because if you raise them, OOP has a clear call with everything stronger than trips

vs this sizing probably jam

...i mean it really depends on how thin SB is betting for value, but then if he's just going to bet/fold a hand like Kx then we're just value owning ourselves

...so actually yeah probably just flat, i guess SB loses less vs 7x with this sizing so it might be a better option

Interesting. Because if IP jams his 7x and OOP knows that, IP bluffs will be -ev. Also all bluffs including Jx block folding range.

OOP also has an insane lack of natural bluffs and would have to be bluffing hearts.

SB shouldn't be betting a hand like AJ OTR so if CO bluffs some Jx he's blocking JJ/KJ at least?

sure, its very marginal but I think that when OOP bets 1/2psb he can maybe have J9s

In that case J would be a reverse blocker.

Im surpirsed you'd raise river with 7x, if you give OOP that range (KJs, JJ, KK, 99, 77, QTs, AA)... Doesn't seem appealing does it?

so you prob have A7s and QTs pre, but not T8s and no other 7x
don't think you'd bet turn this small with combo broadway hearts and idk if you vbet AJ and QQ otr. also AKo/AQo mby c/c flop.
the way I see it if I'm co, sb has JJ/99/KJs,QTs,A7s for fat value, KQs/AJ/QQ/KhTh sometimes thin value and AhQh,AhTh,Ah8h,Ah6h-Ah2h as a bluff half the time.
so if I'm co and I end up otr with KQ/KT I'm just calling cause I think I beat enough. obv ship whatever boats 99/JJ/97s. 7x I would just prob raise turn but if I didn't, would not ship river for value. Nor am I shipping straights, maybe QTs? idk. would not bluff AhQh and AhTh. realistically, only bluffs in co range I would consider are QJs/JTs/T9s/TT. I fold 98s and 88.

So the only nut advantage SB has is KK. CO has all 77/99/JJ. CO has way more 7x here though.

I think flop is a range bet for SB? Likewise I don't think CO has a raising range on this board but I don't have PIO Solver so I could be wrong.

What is SB's worst value hand OTR? J9 is too thin, but AKhh/KQhh is a bet for sure.

So yeah KQhh for SB is the worst value hand.
CO worst shoving hand? I actually think CO's shoves are weighted towards bluffs here after thinking about it. His only shoving hands are 77/99/JJ. Even QT should probably just call.

Possible bluffs are TT/QQ/J9s.

Thought about this hand for a long time and there’s 24 bluff combos and 8 value combos in a reasonable CO range. Even if he only bluffs 1/4 of the time (6 combos) it’s a snap call if you’re SB.

Bluff combos:
T9s
JTs
QJs
J9s
TT
QQ

Value combos:
97s
77
99
JJ

im assuming your sb, but CO could have QT, 99, maybe some JJ, and also KJ and some 7x suited. for sb, KK, JJ, AKs, 87s, 76s, 99 and mayyybe QTs and KJs, and AA.

sizings seem fine but not really sure what you have here in sb. im assuming your 3betting a lot and when its J77 and the 9 hits the turn and you barrel again this should generally be a good card for the CO so im assuming you had a strong hand. So based on the hand did you have AA in the SB?

CO can't really raise KJ for value, as there are 8 combos of boats, 2x A7s, maybe sometimes 2x 87s, 6 combo of aces, which gives 18 better combos. There is no way SB can find call with more of worse hands.
QT looks close here, it unlocks K which is good, but still, SB would have to call AA, AKhh, KJ and probably KQhh as well(depends of number of 7x in range, I personally don't dig to 87s as SB) to make it close to breakeven. It's not gonna have better EV than calling.
CO despite hitting this board like a truck doesn't really have too many hands that can shove for value, if QT as I wrote above is slightly under the line, it leaves CO with 7 combo of boats, and much more decent possible candidates to bluff, as DooDoo stated earlier, Jx especially.
From SB range point of view, 10 combo of boats betcalling river, 8 possible missed FDs folding, and from best to worse, 16 combos 4xQT, 2x A7s, 6x AA, 2xKJs, 1x AKhh, 1x KQhh.
As SB needs ~36% equity to breakeven call, it's really just few bluffs. QJ,JT,AJs (no diamonds, assuming no backdoor FD potential is fold on flop) and you are good to call it with aces. And keep in mind CO has an option to overbluff here.

Hope I didn't screw up adding these 3+3+1 combos somewhere there, lol. Thought process in another story

AJ+ for value, wp on folding AA there

We need hands and results. I think CO bluffs SB and SB calls.

I think SB bets $82, CO raises to $281.16 (all-in), SB folds.

That's just a guess though.

I am indeed SB and folded AA, gratz on thos who guessed it

Ill do a full update tomoz with my thoughts on the spot

Lol whoops! I think AA gotta call here though but probably not a huge mistake to fold.

One of your biggest leaks is that you pay too much attention on small details and don't look what's obvious.

Sb folded to the jam in the hand crispsnchips posted. And CO wasn't bluffing ever lol.

I guess winning regs at NL200 do it regularly. I'm at NL25 and TRYING to think about it

Ye i think AA is somehwat of an easy fold, QT seems to be the puke hand

AA is a snap fold here, AJ is way better to call than AA, but in practice you will do better by calling 7x/FHs and folding the rest, it's exploitable but it's not like you will find a ton of regs turning hands into bluffs for 150bb river raises. And the ones capable of doing that probably overbluff and you should know them already haha.

Lol no, not even close

In my sample of 100k hands of 200z, 100k hands of 100z and 250k hands of 50z when I filtered spots where villain raised a triple barrel OTR and I called, I found 6 bluffs out of 110 hands lol.

what do you think about c/ship AA

Oh whoops! My bad haha. I definitely have a lot of leaks. Trying to plug them quick AF to move out of this 10NL rake trap.

burning money blocking no boats